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JasonK

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I agree with Kyle that these specs, if they hold, are weak. Here is how I am betting they roughly stack:

$45k - 75 kwh RWD, ~260 EPA / ~230 hwy 70 mph range, 10% - 80% ~25 min
$52k - 75 kwh AWD, ~250 EPA / ~215 hwy 70 mph range, 10% - 80% ~32 min
$59k - 95 kwh RWD, ~320 EPA / ~285 hwy 70 mph range, 10% - 80% ~30 min
$65k - 95 kwh AWD, ~305 EPA / ~270 hwy 70 mph range, 10% - 80% ~30 min
$69k - 95 kwh Tri, ~280 EPA / ~255 hwy 70 mph range, 10% - 80% ~30 min
I believe the cost and range of these estimates are off quite a bit. I think if this was true they would not get a lot of buyers. I know I would not be a buyer. $55k is the max i would pay for the AWD long range and it would need to do a minimum of 300 miles @70 mph.
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blipit

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I’d take these ABRP numbers with a HUGE grain of salt.

There was a video that MKBHD did with RJ after the R2 was revealed back in 2024. At the time RJ said the $45K base model would have under 300 miles of range. In the video they flashed 270 miles on the screen. This seems completely believable, but the more expensive AWD model having even less range doesn’t make much sense to me. I don’t think they would put the smaller battery in that.

The launch model has already been confirmed as a dual-motor thatā€˜s well equipped. I’d say that comes in at $55-$60K and has 300+ miles of range. That’s the sweet spot. I don’t think they’ll be able to squeeze a Max pack in this smaller package, but I could be wrong. I’d love to see a high-end model with 400+ miles of range, but they also don’t want to cannibalize R1S sales too much.

Dammit, they need to release the specs already. Hopefully the 2/10 official debut is real.
95kwh is actually a good size. It is just the shape of Rivians that result in terrible efficiency.

If the $45k base model has 270mile range. Wouldn't that be the 75kwh RWD? Meaning an AWD 75kwh pack R2 would have less than 270mile range?

It is possible they only offer AWD with the 95kwh battery pack.
 

DuoRivian

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So you think Rivian will have leasing from the start or like they did with the R1 purchase only?
 
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macb00kemdanno

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My point is that the EV skeptics aren't diving in until charge times are well below 10 minutes, and for MOST buyers, the difference between 15 minutes 10-80% and 25 minutes 10-80% is far less important than how it looks and how it drives if they consider it at all.

Let's be honest about the target market for the R2. Rivian is not trying to convert masses of EV skeptics. Rivian is looking to take market share from Ford, Hyundai, VW, and mostly Tesla within the current EV market with non-EV drivers being on the margins.
If Rivian’s only goal is to convert current EV owners, then they might as well close up shop right now.

Current EV owners were once ICE people…

Sure, go after EV conquest sales, but Rivian and anyone else looking to grow market share needs to convert skeptics, and fast. Especially without the assistance of federal tax credits.
 

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kurtlikevonnegut

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If Rivian’s only goal is to convert current EV owners, then they might as well close up shop right now.

Current EV owners were once ICE people…

Sure, go after EV conquest sales, but Rivian and anyone else looking to grow market share needs to convert skeptics, and fast. Especially without the assistance of federal tax credits.
Tesla Model Y sales last year were around 400k in the US alone, and about 400k the year previous. Rivian R2 capacity when fully operational will be 155k at least until 2028 when Georgia comes on line. Taking market share from current Model 3/Y owners and owners considering a Tesla Model 3/Y will by itself allow Rivian to maximize it's production rate for the next 3 years.
 

TexasBob

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I believe the cost and range of these estimates are off quite a bit. I think if this was true they would not get a lot of buyers. I know I would not be a buyer. $55k is the max i would pay for the AWD long range and it would need to do a minimum of 300 miles @70 mph.
I might talk myself into 45, 50, 56, 60, 65.

I want to be wrong on the range and charging. But if they do not at least hit EPA model y numbers (330+ AWD LR) then I am out.
 
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macb00kemdanno

macb00kemdanno

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Tesla Model Y sales last year were around 400k in the US alone, and about 400k the year previous. Rivian R2 capacity when fully operational will be 155k at least until 2028 when Georgia comes on line. Taking market share from current Model 3/Y owners and owners considering a Tesla Model 3/Y will by itself allow Rivian to maximize it's production rate for the next 3 years.
That’s fair analysis šŸ‘
 

Gen(R3)Xer

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Leasing Model 3 until R3X comes out, but now I have an R2 reservation as well.
95kwh is actually a good size. It is just the shape of Rivians that result in terrible efficiency.

If the $45k base model has 270mile range. Wouldn't that be the 75kwh RWD? Meaning an AWD 75kwh pack R2 would have less than 270mile range?

It is possible they only offer AWD with the 95kwh battery pack.
Yes, that’s what I said. They’re not going to build a dual-motor vehicle that gets under 300 miles of range. The single-motor RWD standard vehicle will be the only one with the smaller battery. This is where they’ll achieve the $45K price point.
 

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95kwh from ABRP seems to agree with this estimate of 94kwh.

https://www.batterydesign.net/rivian-r2-pack-2025-update/

3 modules
256 cells each
8 cells wide
Total cells = 768

Manufacturer - LG
Format - 4695
Nominal Capcity - 34Ah
Nomical Voltage - 3.5V
Mass - 0.41kg

Assuming that LG achieve a cell capacity of 34Ah our estimates suggest a 94kWh pack. The total mass of cells would be ~315kg and using the best fit trends for BEV’s this would give a pack that weighs 496kg.
 

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I don't see any version getting over 300miles at 70mph. At best I would expect high 2's for efficiency at 70mph.

2.9 m/kwh * 95 kwh = 275.5 miles(100% to 0%)
As a reference, my 2023 dual motor Polestar2 does about 3.0 mi/kWh on an open highway cruise with A/C going. It has a 78kwh battery pack. I usually stop every 150 miles or so which is good timing for bio breaks.
 

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Yes, that’s what I said. They’re not going to build a dual-motor vehicle that gets under 300 miles of range. The single-motor RWD standard vehicle will be the only one with the smaller battery. This is where they’ll achieve the $45K price point.
If that is the case. Key question...what is the up charge from $45k for dual-motor and large battery pack. I have a feeling it is going to be quite significant. The answer to that question could make or break the success of the R2. Dual-motor/Large pack is going to be the volume seller. It is $7k to go from R1S Dual Standard to R1S Dual Large.
 

SadHill

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Yeah, sounds about right with those numbers. And while it does seem a bit odd to list the R3/R3X capacities early, I seriously doubt the R3 has a wheelbase long enough to fit a 95 kWh battery. So it makes sense that it would have only one size option — the lowest available on the R2 — for commonality.

So yes, we should take this with a pinch of salt, but it does seem highly plausible.
RJ has already said the R3 is built on the same platform as the R2 (skateboard style). Just the body is different. So they can be the same size batteries as long as they are between wheel wells.
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