Speculation - R1T cost after R2 launch…

[CampfireWisdom]

Great question. Personally, I am thinking we will hear about the 2027 models in June or July. When will they come out? That will be a different story... but I think I might as well wait it out. Like I said, I'm locked up until June 5th anyways.

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[usulio]

I assume the giant tech upgrade will also get pushed into R1, and it is huge. It is Lidar plus the RAP1 chipset which is vastly more capable plus updated radar, a specialized onboard ai chip for in vehicle processing, upgraded infotainment processor, and upgraded cameras (just to mention a few highlights from autonomy day). Personally, I would not even consider buying any new Rivian until this arrives. If I did not care about those things I would buy a used Gen 2 because the new vehicles are already so out of date (I have a one year old and a two year but not complaining, just being honest that they are seriously old tech now).

Ha. I get that a lot of people think like this, it takes all kinds. But for me, roads are roads, trails are trails, snow is snow, campsites are campsites. 4 wheels and some electrons got me there yesterday, they'll do just fine tomorrow.

 

[RivnSoon]

I'm thinking the R2 will cause the R1S used market, especially the G1, to drop in price. My thought is that some or many current R1S owners "over bought" in terms of size and seats, and the R2 actually is the one they need.

 

[BigSkies]

This is all complete guess stuff, as Rivian hasn't said anything, and probably doesn't even have a detailed plan for R1 upgrades yet.

A magic 8 ball is more likely to be right than any one of us.

However, this is the internet, so I feel obligated to make a completely speculative guess.

Here's what I see influencing Rivian's decision to update the R1's over the next few years.

1. 100% of Rivian's effort is currently going into the R2 launch and scale. After that, a similar amount of effort will go into the GA factory opening and R3 launch. Rivian doesn't have the resources to do much to the R1 until after the GA factory starts to function effectively.

2. Rivian will want to expand internationally after the GA factory opening. Maybe not immediately, but soon afterwards. They will want to take the R1 into markets where they are building service and delivery infrastructure. This will require some updates to the R1 for safety/compliance with (mostly) EU regulations. This will be the incentive Rivian needs for a bigger R1 refresh.

So my guess is that we don't see material changes to the R1 platform until 2028 or 2029.

 

[CrazyOne]

IMO, there will be a cheaper version of R1, only if R2 fails and Rivian needs more R1 sales to survive. That is unlikely to happen.

Having said that, if battery prices continue to drop, they may have a slight chance to drop prices or add features.

 

[bummin]

Not convinced R1 price would drop, but I think additional value would be brought to market to validate pricing.

800v architecture, new battery tech, G3 tech with more processing power than R2. Roof should change to dynamic tinting and not the obscure glass. Audio from a good OEM again.

Think R1 should possess all the tech that trickles down to R2/R3 in time. Keeps market for those who want latest & greatest innovations and most capable version of Rivian offerings.

 

[Luxus]

As far as making a purchase goes, do your homework up front. Once you decide to pull the trigger, forget about what is going on with the market. Thinking about if you made a good decision later on is just a way to make yourself crazy.

As to what I think will happen to the R1 after the R2 launch, I can't see Rivian let the R1 go for long with the R2 having features (like lidar) that the R1 doesn't. R1s are the halo vehicle and they should have all the best features available.

I agree with what others have said, the new R1 prices shouldn't come down. It's in a different market as compared to the R2.

 

[Fmc]

curious if rivian could do an R1 without air suspension and cut interior costs and get a sub 70k R1? It could be a no-mans land place. Or do they need to go worktruck route and get prices sub 50? Although if they get too cheap they begin to cannibalize r2 sales.

 

[140 degrees]

I also expect the R2 to be very successful. If the Normal Factory is running flat out, I don't expect a reduced price model of the R1 to be in the cards. Companies drop price to boost volume, there is no incentive if the factory is near full utilization.

On the other hand, R1 is going to become cheaper to manufacture. All of the amortized factory costs will be spread across a higher volume of vehicles. Batteries are still coming down in price. Some of the heavy tooling depreciation for R1 will be ending. I understand that 5-7 years is a typical depreciation schedule for this type of capital expense.

Manufacturing costs for R1 are coming down unless something unexpected happens. I expect this will help the bottom line and that is good news. Rivian isn't out of the woods yet.

 

[lefkonj]

With the R2 entering in the 45-50k range and the R1 being 80-120k I don't see it having any impact on pricing. I would imagine once the R2 gets rocking the LIDAR and potentially the steering wheel could move to the R1. Will it be for 27 or 28 no one knows its all a guess right now.

 

[Count Orlok]

every time The Count goes to pull the trigger on an R1T he compares it to other trucks in the price range and changes his mind.

 

[ElGuano]

Rivian's been very focused on cost cutting for Gen2 R1 already. I don't think that there is anything *internal* that will cause them to radically shift on that. So I think most likely path is for R1 pricing to stay as it is, completely independent of where R2 lands (because any price differentiation has already been built-in to planning for both models).

The only thing that might cause them to radically shift is something like the $60k CT is popular enough to move the market. But it sounds like Elon is doing a fine job muddying his own waters there.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

How many times has RJ reiterated that R1 is the flagship model line? Nothing has happened to change that and no flagship line is ever going to let a lower model line be the cause to lower its value. R2 is said to be the volume seller (and clearly so). Rivian’s profitability hangs on it, not R1. With R2 as bread and butter, Rivian can go on charging whatever they want for R1. It won’t get cheaper. It will get more expensive with each revision.

 

[CampfireWisdom]

every time The Count goes to pull the trigger on an R1T he compares it to other trucks in the price range and changes his mind.

What other trucks can even compare to an R1T?

 

[webfootdawg]

What did Tesla do with the Model S when the 3 hit the market?

I see this as a comparable situation for Rivian.

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