In 4th year of waiting ... beginning to question if the wait is worth it

[Bullitt]

True, the 3 in '21 was catching up with the Y and benefiting from the R&D that goes into the Y. I imagine Tesla wouldn't want to wait one more unit than necessary before implementing the cost advantages of the LFP pack. My comment pertains to the annual patterns most visible in the first quarter each year (not clockwork, but recurring.) Tesla has maintained the marketing message of continuous innovation or whatever but they've also seen they can't escape the Osborne Effect – the S Plaid being an example where customers didn't want a Nov/Dec built '21 model year vehicle and Tesla was actively communicating with customers to say that attempts to defer delivery to '22 and speculate on EV tax credits would not be accommodated. People who deferred nonetheless (at least in my personal experience) found their order was not cancelled and lo and behold, the S got a body facelift and news of the Y with 4680 structural (in my opinion) bodes well for the Plaid to get a significant upgrade in '22 (and hopefully to exceed the 520 miles' range of the Lucid.) Anyway, I'm not asserting Tesla has a model year product cycle, just that there is a recurring pattern of updates arriving after the push to end the 4th quarter, usually coming with price adjustments … the stuff of model year product management.

Agreed — I think the point that I was underscoring was that Tesla regularly makes changes mid ”model year” and that is not atypical of a traditional car manufacturer of old.

Sponsored

 

[the long way downunder]

There are issues with some of the features you're bringing up (1 or 2 are personal).

retracting glass - could you elaborate further on what exactly your mean here as I do not want to misinterpret what glass specifically you speak of.

I mean the same as the Silverado mid-gate, which is retractable glass and removable.

rear steering - this can and will likely cause a an issue regarding perfecting Tank turning, a feature that is also not needed, but I highly prefer over 4 wheel steering.

Frunk with nose in the hood - This will likely have water seep into it if one is caught in the uncommon occasion where they have to waterford in deep h2O for a vehicle. Ford is likely going to have leak problems cause of this.

Ford and GM have it. I'm sure there are drawbacks and there will probably be recalls as they figure out the design of seals or the latch mechanism, but it's a major feature.

Curb weight - batteries are the offenders in this category. The truck will shed some pounds once Rivian starts deploying use of lighter weight batteries such as graphene and solid state. Something every EV is at the mercy of waiting for the tech to advance enough for those two battery types to become a common, inexpensive implement.

Munro will figure out where the extra 1000lbs+ is in the Rivian. Presumably in redundant chassis pieces (that's where Tesla was heavy in previous model iterations. Also probably in teh battery enclosure, and probably in the sum of all parts of the wiring and plumbing. I imagine Rivian already has plans for the version 2.0 product line to have far fewer parts and far less redundant structure.

500+ range - refer to battery comment above in Curb weight response.

Autonomy and remote control driverless manuevering - these two are personal. I want to enjoy my Rivian. Autonomy just makes one lazy. Regarding remote control, driverless maneuvering, not only does this feature have a LONG way to go regarding getting perfected, but it also adds to the laziness factor. This is an Adventure vehicle. GO ADVENTURE IN IT, not have it do it for you.

I think the world wants Autopilot and Tesla has made it a dinner party conversation. One thing I miss about getting out of my X and into my (great) F-150 Hybrid is the damn Ford can park it's hugeness in the garage by itself. : ) But I'm really talking about basic L2 Autopilot, not whatever FSD becomes and again, it's a competitive differentiator – Ford has BlueCruise and GM has SuperCruise (not to forget GM Cruise is fully autonomous, driverless and already in public trials with passengers. ) It's not a dealbreaker for me, I think the lane-keep, distance-keep is sufficient for now.

 

[Trandall]

Rivian made a conscious decision to forgo auto shows even before the pandemic. They did have a booth at both the West coast and East coast overlanding Expo last year.

 

[crashmtb]

Since the last email from RJ, I’ve told myself this is put up or shut up week. I don’t know anything more than anyone else here, but I too am beginning to feel the cold hands of Octobers past tingle the back of my neck.

I hope I’m wrong, but as of now I’m VERY disappointed. Had a really crumby interaction in a css chat earlier this week too. Of course nothing new was shared but the agent was an absolute tool. —Normally they’re at least pleasant.

Email a complaint. Their response will speak volumes!

 

[Diddy123]

Since the last email from RJ, I’ve told myself this is put up or shut up week. I don’t know anything more than anyone else here, but I too am beginning to feel the cold hands of Octobers past tingle the back of my neck.

I hope I’m wrong, but as of now I’m VERY disappointed. Had a really crumby interaction in a css chat earlier this week too. Of course nothing new was shared but the agent was an absolute tool. —Normally they’re at least pleasant.

I had the same feeling about this week. 2 weeks into February...surely we'd start hearing some good news.

Then I see we got an email from Rivian (Hurray an update!), only to find out it was just promotion for the clothing store. Completely tone-deaf to the current sentiment of many in the Rivian community.

I've lost faith. I'll keep waiting, but I've lost faith.

No news. Bad news. No news. Repeat.

 

[E.S.]

I mean the same as the Silverado mid-gate, which is retractable glass and removable.

Removable I can see. Retractable I do not as this would cut into the space where the tonneau folds up into and quite possibly the gear tunnel space.

 

[the long way downunder]

Removable I can see. Retractable I do not as this would cut into the space where the tonneau folds up into and quite possibly the gear tunnel space.

I think I was wrong about retractable – the '24 Silverado animations show "rear glass release" but don't show it retracting (maybe that was in the Avalanche?)

After so long, I fail to see how GM and Ford don't do all these things already in their existing pickups (where applicable) and copy things like RAM boxes. Ford had the "gear tunnel" in the first F-250 for example, it was just a mundane tool box and didn't go all the way across (ladder frame.)
While Rivian has done a lot of cool "bolt on aftermarket" gizmos and the kitchen, if nothing innovative, must have taken some serious effort, but they seemed to have a stopped short of all the things they see at overlander expos … accessories that Jeep, Ford and GM offer (to greater and lesser extents.)

Ford, RAM, Rivian, and Tesla product management people must have looked at this video and immediately called for budget meetings to argue for another $100M to have all these cool (and seriously impressive) features. This is a tour de force of upfitter revenue and seriously influences my preference for the (overwrought) Silverado over the F-150 Lightning (I have the '21 F-150 Hybrid and it's damn near perfect) and the Rivian comes off a poor third place when the judges score for utility and functionality.

Of course animation is cheap, but look at the depth of design, the thought and completeness of these features, not to mention all of these product exist in the aftermarket today … all of those aftermarket manufacturers will be looking at the EV pickup market as their future and they'll be adapting their existing (and future electric, solar, battery accessories) to Lightning and Silverado. Rivian should go to them with a proposition to make money as the "Tacoma" of the EV pickup sector.

 

[E.S.]

Rivian should go to them with a proposition to make money as the "Tacoma" of the EV pickup sector.

Except they won't because this is 'Murica! They're directly competing with Rivian. Would it make sense for them to do this? Yes, but that's not how things work in the U.S. business world. Even Ford, despite backing Rivian financially, pulled this stunt when they declared the Lincoln collaboration null and void.

Regarding the R1T, because of the retractable tonneau and gear tunnel, a retractable rear window will cause a redesign (which Rivian cannot afford to do at this time as they're concentrating on production ramping). Maybe as a feature on 2nd gen R1Ts where you get to pick that option over another feature (example: no retractable tonneau or tonneau at all).

 

[opnwide]

Do we have an Over-Under line for the number of Ford Lightning commercials during the Super Bowl vs. the number of Rivian commercials?

 

[the long way downunder]

Except they won't because this is 'Murica! They're directly competing with Rivian. Would it make sense for them to do this? Yes, but that's not how things work in the U.S. business world. Even Ford, despite backing Rivian financially, pulled this stunt when they declared the Lincoln collaboration null and void.

Regarding the R1T, because of the retractable tonneau and gear tunnel, a retractable rear window will cause a redesign (which Rivian cannot afford to do at this time as they're concentrating on production ramping). Maybe as a feature on 2nd gen R1Ts where you get to pick that option over another feature (example: no retractable tonneau or tonneau at all).

Yep, I think the '24 Silverado just pops out the window (hopefully to store it somewhere in the frunk or ?) The R1T could do the same … just make a cradle for it to clip into the underside of the hood and close into the frunk.

I'm not beating my head against the brick wall of incompetence that is the US auto industry – it wins every time!
Somehow the US auto industry ignored rising gas prices in the 80s and let in Toyota. Now they've just finally relented and stopped ignoring the EV "inevitability" and have the next 5 years to try to catch up to Tesla and the Asian EV makers. I'm guessing they will – you and I will be paying taxes to make it happen. : |

I think the US "truck" market has somehow ignored the Tacoma for a quarter century and ignored things like Asia / Japanese auto makers "invading" the US to assemble competitive products while us automakers and unions embroil themselves in corruption instead of innovation and well-paid, skilled worker careers.

Rivian is somehow ignoring the Tacoma in its details of the R1. I'm sure their ex-Tesla people arrived with the preconceived master plan to build expensive models first, take the perceived "low hanging fruit" (this was pre-Cybertruck, circa 2015-2017) and own the niche of light commercial EVs starting with a cash cow consumer luxury vehicle.

Seems to me they must have an R2 (if Star Wars would even allow?) that is Tacoma-priced and it would slice the Cybertruck, F-150, 1500 sales in half if Rivian and Amazon decided "let's just take the compact and mid-sized pickup market 100%, add a van to that vehicle body, and make it the compact last mile delivery and building industry standard." Bezos could bankroll owning that market and not notice the missing coin from behind the sofa cushions.

Rivian-Amazon could have a "hose out" simple Tacoma EV for sale to fleet buyers in 2024 and be geared up to build hundreds of thousands to any buyer with an Amazon Prime Chase Visa (get all the sharks in the pool party) credit card and just deliver it to their door on a $199/month with a $299 return fee for the first 90 days … or whatever lock-in just like Amazon Prime … build the delivery fee into the price and call it "free!" : |

Then by the Amazon "101" business rule book – they make money on the swings and the roundabouts. When people want to upgrade or return their RAT (Rivian Amazon Tacoma) after beating the tar out of it, they just click the button on the dash, Amazon gets the GPS coordinates, picks it up and takes it to a recycling gigafactory to pull the battery pack, put it straight in a new body, then the old chassis rolls into a shredder to disassemble and reuse the components (control modules, computers, touchscreens, door window assemblies, etc., all the gold and silver bits, copper and cabin trim) and recycles everything except the pennies and Pringles – how do you recycle a Pringle, I think it's just glue and factory floor sweepings?

Surely RJ and his team have long ago thought this through and offered Bezos a five slide presentation and Bezos has already agreed to "slide #2: build 100,000 EDVs in 2023." Ford didn't like the idea of getting into bed with Amazon (could be shrewd) to make (more) billions from Rivian, so they walked away from the deal of the century. I wouldn't be surprised if Jim Farley looked at Ford and decided "Rivian and Amazon will do a better job of this if Ford isn't involved" and is sitting on a 12% slice of diversified revenue while building the E-Transit to sell to existing Ford fleet channels.

That's not to say $F isn't doing ok ($F is ten times $TSLA in percentage gains for 12 months despite the ongoing 2022 "Fed screws the pooch" secular market correction.)

 

[E.S.]

... I think the US "truck" market has somehow ignored the Tacoma for a quarter century ...

Can't say I completely agree here. U.S. was adamant about 'accepting' the Tacoma, but in the last 25 yrs, Toyota has made its landmark regarding that model. So much so that there are people sycophantically loyal to the model, faults 'n' all.

Is Rivian ignoring the Tacoma? I do not believe so. They know competition is coming and, despite Toyota's hypocritical stance on EVs (We don't want to do EVs, it's not what we envision! Btw, here are 7 of our EVs), Rivian knows the Tacoma BEV was an eventuality. Ford pretty much dropped the hint on Rivian's lap when they invested into the company and considered a collaboration and then cancelled that collab declaring they wanted to do their own thing. If that wasn't a sign of "well if Ford is doing it (going truck EV), what's stopping Chevy, Dodge, Toyota, and others from following suit?", I don't know what is.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Do we have an Over-Under line for the number of Ford Lightning commercials during the Super Bowl vs. the number of Rivian commercials?

So far 0 vs 0 unless I missed one in the first half. But there have been a bunch of other EV commercials. Polestar, Silverado, BMW and a commercial for an EV Charger (Wall box I think?). What a waste of money for the ev charger.

 

[SeaGeo]

So far 0 vs 0 unless I missed one in the first half. But there have been a bunch of other EV commercials. Polestar, Silverado, BMW and a commercial for an EV Charger (Wall box I think?). What a waste of money for the ev charger.

The wall box commercial was bizarre.

 

[Cosmacelf]

So far 0 vs 0 unless I missed one in the first half. But there have been a bunch of other EV commercials. Polestar, Silverado, BMW and a commercial for an EV Charger (Wall box I think?). What a waste of money for the ev charger.

Add Kia EV in the second half.

 

[Ripped]

Add Kia EV in the second half.

I'd say in a short period of time the Kia/Hyundai group will have a small-mid sized light truck offering. They've proven to be a nimble company and since poaching the BMW designer have had some of the most aesthetically pleasing designs of any automaker.

I doubt we'd see a full sized truck though.

On the waiting topic, I've spent a boatload of money patching up and fixing some annoying things on my F150, hopefully it will go for another few years, until there is a solid EV truck out there.

The superbowl Silverado commercials were well done.

Sponsored