180 R1T produced / 156 R1T delivered as of Oct 31 -- per Updated Rivian S1 [11/1]

[dleewla]

I don't think string along is the right phrase (meaning intentionally), I think that until the Guide receives a fresh script from the printer/fax machine, they will continue to do what they were trained to do and read the one they have. Last month is an example of this. Nothing is nefarious, just is what it is.

But again, I've allowed for the possibility of there being a handful of non-employee deliveries before the end of the year and he may very well be one. There are exceptions to everything and the only reliable information we have is for the whole. So, I'm just saying that if I were him (or others being told November), I'd put about 1% probability in a Guide timeline prior to final order and expect to receive it by end of Spring like they have provided guidance for, and if I'm asked to finalize an order before then, well then it's a nice surprise. Don't expect precision in an unprecise reality.

It's like being in the back of the line at a food truck, and asking the person making lobster rolls to give you an exact time when you will receive your roll even though there are dozens of people ahead of you in line and he's never made lobster rolls or operated a food truck before. He'll probably throw something out there, but I'd just file it away, and then ask again once I get to the front and place my order.

I'm hopeful they will turn into a nice value add later on, but I think in the short term it was a bad decision to roll them out now. There were only two things that could have happened - everything went according to plan and thus neutral, or what has happened and they were giving people who were inclined to rely on dates as promises false hope (with good intentions) and creating upheaval. They should have just had people finalizing orders with order processors when they were ready, not speculating about possible delivery dates far in advance. Again, noble cause but bad idea in hindsight. Then, they should have assigned a Guide after delivery.

Heck, maybe Rivian realized this themselves and why they stopped Guides reaching out. They provide nothing but potential negatives until delivery. I applaud them for trying something innovative but probably learned a lesson that if it ain't broke (order process), don't fix it because people will only crucify you for it.

Honestly, I think the guides are a failure. Not because of the guides but because of Rivian not being ready and putting them in position to succeed. Its a great idea, just hasn't executed well up till now. Feel bad for them doing the best they can with either handcuffs or little info.

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[DucRider]

It all that holds true, it doesn't make sense why it would take till end of 2023 to fulfill the ~55K preorder holders.

Where did you see that it would take until the end of 2023 to fulfill 55K?
That was not presented in the S-1

They had 48K they could fill by the end of 2022
At 55K it will be by the end of 2023

They look at years only, not to the month, week or day.
When we see the final S-1 update next week, the number will be higher than 55K, yet still list "by the end of 2023".

 

[dleewla]

it’s hard to know for sure. Best guess is that earlier preorders get some priority over similarly situated people who ordered later.

It also seems like some non-LE vehicles will be delivered before the last of the LEs. LEs are scheduled to be delivered by spring, non-LEs supposedly start in January. So it’s not a clear LE/non-LE divide.

Things like geography, options, wheels, color, proximity to service center, etc may end up mattering more than the date you sent your $1k. But nobody can give you a clear answer because Rivian hasn’t told us.

Good insight and makes sense.

 

[dleewla]

Where did you see that it would take until the end of 2023 to fulfill 55K?
That was not presented in the S-1

They had 48K they could fill by the end of 2022
At 55K it will be by the end of 2023

They look at years only, not to the month, week or day.
When we see the final S-1 update next week, the number will be higher than 55K, yet still list "by the end of 2023".

Are you and I not saying the same thing with regards to how many vehicles they said they are going to have produced by end of 2023? its 55,400 (to be exact) based on the S-1.

What I'm saying doesn't make sense if if they are ramping up production over time, you'd think that number would be a lot higher than 55,400. Unless you're saying it will be higher based on the number of orders they get between now and then? So they will make the 55,400 by end of 2023 for sure plus whatever new orders they get will be on top of that number (which they of course don't know)?

 

[DucRider]

Are you and I not saying the same thing with regards to how many vehicles they said they are going to have produced by end of 2023? its 55,400 (to be exact) based on the S-1.

What I'm saying doesn't make sense if if they are ramping up production over time, you'd think that number would be a lot higher than 55,400. Unless you're saying it will be higher based on the number of orders they get between now and then? So they will make the 55,400 by end of 2023 for sure plus whatever new orders they get will be on top of that number (which they of course don't know)?

Look at the following scenario:
They can make 50K in 2022
They can make an additional 100K in 2023

They have 55K pre-orders.
In what year can they predict fulfilling them? That is what is reported in the S-1.

 

[moosehead]

The Ramp looks real.

Though lately at 3.8 vehicles a day, not terribly steep just yet according to this morning's article. Also note preorders increased nicely this past month.

Apologies if this is a repeat.

Rivian Reports R1T Production And Delivery Numbers For October (insideevs.com)

Rivian Reports R1T Production And Delivery Numbers For October
Some 1,000 EVs will be delivered by the end of this year. Pre-orders surge.

Rivian reports that as of the end of October, it has produced and delivered respectively 180 and 156 Rivian R1T electric pickups. New data emerged by the way of the new IPO-related document.

The first R1T rolled off the assembly line in Normal, Illinois on September 14, which means that over about 48 days, the company was producing the R1T at an average rate of nearly 3.8/day (including weekends). That sounds reasonable for a startup and such a complex product.

Production plan
According to the plan, by the end of this year, Rivian will produce and deliver more than 1,000 electric vehicles (all types). However, the previous rumors that the company prioritizes the EDV van over R1T/R1S appear to be false.


Here is the latest official Rivian's plan for 2021:

• Total expected production: over 1,200
  R1T: approximately 1,200
  R1S: approximately 25
  EDV: approximately 10
• Total expected deliveries: over 1,000
  R1T: approximately 1,000
  R1S: approximately 15
  EDV: approximately 10

 

[wizard467]

The Ramp looks real.

Though lately at 3.8 vehicles a day, not terribly steep just yet according to this morning's article. Also note preorders increased nicely this past month.

Apologies if this is a repeat.

Rivian Reports R1T Production And Delivery Numbers For October (insideevs.com)

Rivian Reports R1T Production And Delivery Numbers For October
Some 1,000 EVs will be delivered by the end of this year. Pre-orders surge.

Rivian reports that as of the end of October, it has produced and delivered respectively 180 and 156 Rivian R1T electric pickups. New data emerged by the way of the new IPO-related document.

The first R1T rolled off the assembly line in Normal, Illinois on September 14, which means that over about 48 days, the company was producing the R1T at an average rate of nearly 3.8/day (including weekends). That sounds reasonable for a startup and such a complex product.

Production plan
According to the plan, by the end of this year, Rivian will produce and deliver more than 1,000 electric vehicles (all types). However, the previous rumors that the company prioritizes the EDV van over R1T/R1S appear to be false.


Here is the latest official Rivian's plan for 2021:

• Total expected production: over 1,200
  R1T: approximately 1,200
  R1S: approximately 25
  EDV: approximately 10
• Total expected deliveries: over 1,000
  R1T: approximately 1,000
  R1S: approximately 15
  EDV: approximately 10

InsideEvs missed a key part of the second amendment to the S1. From Oct 22nd (S1 Amendment 1) to Oct 31 (S1 Amendment 2) they went from having produced 56 (Oct 22nd) to 180 (Oct 31). So in 9 days they were able to make about 14 per day. In just over a week they tripled their previous production rate. That is how they are getting about 1,000 vehicles built in Nov/Dec. (1200 minus the 180 they already have). The S1 is assuming there will be a limited amount of speedup in production through the end of the year (holidays, supply chain issues, etc. being limiting factors).

 

[LaunchGreen]

That could very well be the case but people should also remember that Rivian is not immune to the 80,000 truck driver shortage in the US. Far more hamstrung by it, IMO.

https://fortune.com/2021/10/28/truck-driver-shortage-supply-chain-80000/amp/

I just think it’s funny that people post on here, “I ordered a toaster on Amazon and it showed up two days later so why is Rivian such a terrible manufacturer and why can’t they give me an exact date?” LOL.

More like "I ordered a toaster and Amazon said it will show up in two days. Four days later they said spring 2022."

 

[LaunchGreen]

I already know the answer to that, they will be mid to late next year at least, because Guides weren't hired until a few months ago so they a) aren't LE and b) aren't being cut in to the early access that long time employees are. So, basically they are regular joes who reserved in the last several months.

It isn't just long-time employees. We have seen employees at the company one year take delivery. Assuming it was used as a incentive for hiring.

 

[yizzung]

More like "I ordered a toaster and Amazon said it will show up in two days. Four days later they said spring 2022."

Ah so we're talking about Sony Playstations now instead of toasters.

 

[htownsportsfan]

“8,321,072 shares of Class A common stock issued to Forever by Rivian, Inc., a 501(c)(4) social welfare organization, to fund and support our social impact initiative in connection with the completion of this offering (see “Business—Forever” for additional information) based upon an initial public offering price of $59.50.”
$500m to fund ESG. This is nice and cute but I feel like they should hold options and not exercise until profitable.

How do you this when you are literally just trying to get this thing off the ground? You should be frugal and putting every dollar you can raise to work to build factories! I doubt Tesla would have done this in their infancy.

 

[Friscorays]

Bummer about March 1, 2022.

 

[SantaFeSpence]

So now Rivian expects to open at around $70/share. That's close to 20% higher than they forecast last week. Hmmm, makes me wonder if that's such a good buy. Now I'm on the fence - but since they'll only allow me to buy 175 shares pre-opening day, I'll probably pull the trigger on it.

 

[Vserra]

So now Rivian expects to open at around $70/share. That's close to 20% higher than they forecast last week. Hmmm, makes me wonder if that's such a good buy. Now I'm on the fence - but since they'll only allow me to buy 175 shares pre-opening day, I'll probably pull the trigger on it.

I was originally in on the IPO but I think the price will drop at some point over the next 6-12 months (or more likely sooner) and we'll be able to buy these shares at quite a discount. Obviously can't say for sure but I'd imagine it is likely. This higher per share price only sealed the deal for me.

 

[stynes]

To those on here who will tell me to just cancel my order if I don't believe that Rivian is perfect, I won't. I will keep my order, I will invest in the IPO, and I will continue to call out the horrible communication until they fix it.

This.

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