Anti-EV agenda

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[hammick]

Can Kyle ride a bike?

Hoodies aren't proper riding gear. I'll head out there and give it a good flogging for him.

I do a fair amount of long distance touring. The scenic places I like to ride are remote and unlikely to have chargers. I don't see myself riding an EV bike in my lifetime. I'd like to be wrong on that because I'm guessing EV bikes eventually will be superior to ICE bikes in every way.

 

[Kaiju]

I think it was Ford who said that EVs won't ever sell because they're better for the environment, they'll sell because they're better. Well, EVs are better. Less moving parts, more power, lower operating costs.

I think we're here honestly save for one thing and that is convenience during long-distance travel. Give it a bit more time and that will also change. As much as people harp about range most ICE vehicles aren't actually any better, it just takes less time and the ubiquity of gas stations removes any need for planning. Just that one final nail. It's more stubbornly clung to in the US and also Canada because things are simply further apart, even if most people only make a handful of long trips. The world in general is moving on though.

Teslas and Rivians in particular have a bad reputation with insurance because of manufacturing-based decisions that make certain things very difficult or expensive to repair. While Rivian never repeated the mistake of 'gigacasting' as far as repairability goes, those long side panels made some light damage in a particular place hideously expensive. However that's also changed a bit as body shops have started being able to splice and weld those parts rather than disassemble half the vehicle. I don't actually expect a Lightning or a Sierra EV is substantially more difficult to repair from an insurance perspective than the ICE version. That's not an EV problem, that's the harsh lessons of being a new car company.

The EV trucks are being walked back because it was seen as a cash cow when Tesla had 20% margins and pickups were the things that legacy ICE manufacturers salivated over selling. Situation changed though by the time any of them made it to market, not the least of which because the actual costs were 20k higher than when announced and the market at that price range wasn't going to sustain all of the entries. Even Rivian sales show that everything in terms of volume is in SUVs of various sorts.

 

[Time2Roll]

I agree charging on long trips is not yet as easy as it should be. The real tipping point will be when the volume of fuel drops significantly where gasoline stations start to close. Likewise charging infrastructure and batteries will improve by then.

I believe the most recent $7,500 credit was a bit over done. Should have stuck with the original plan that phased out as each manufacturer hit the limit of I believe 200,000 qualified vehicles produced. I believe only Tesla and GM hit the limit. EVs today are strong enough to stand on their own four wheels. The credit was also adding fuel to the anti-EV movement.

Considering the current budget maybe a tax on ICE for pollution of maybe $250 for each 1000 pounds of GVWR. Double for imported ICE.

 

[HaveBlue]

Rivian is modeled to compete with range Rover. About the same volume, price, styling and reliability

 

[Great Gatsby]

I'm not worried. How often must we bring up Rivian and EVs closing shop? I haven't been around since the early Tesla days, but man, this must be exhausting for those who have been in the game for a while.

EVs have proof of concept. They aren't going anywhere. Rivian is not going to call it a day because your neighbor or Facebook said you have to replace the battery every year for $80k and they take 10 business days to charge, plus shipping and handling. FUD, hates and anti-EV headlines will continue to prop up because people love to BS and they get clicks. This is not reality.

While EVs still have a rough rode ahead, I'd argue that the tougher times are behind us. Infrastructure is getting much better, technology is improving at an impressive clip and with the tax credit gone, I do believe depreciation will stabilize on used EVs (I'd argue it kind of has already). I don't see it as doom and gloom but rather the tail end of the storm. It's going to be alright. Go enjoy your vehicle. You don't need me to tell you how damn good it is.

 

[mkhuffman]

https://www.donutlab.com/battery/

Bye bye gasoline vehicles. First solid state vehicle on the road in March.

This is not proof of concept -- it is actually a finished production ready unit that has been reviewed.

370 Miles of Range.
200 kW charge rate.
400 wh/kg density.
15 minutes to fully charge from dead to full.

$48,000 in 2026. It only goes down from here.

Before this the best bike got like 90 miles of range and took 5 hours to charge.

Sketchy at best.... for a product that's currently "shipping" they still refuse to disclose the cell chemistry? Not even one single outside/independent review of their "product" so far. Many think their product is a scam comparing it to Theranos?

Can Kyle ride a bike?

I agree. They have solved ALL the problems with batteries. Their batteries can do everything well. Everything. What a scam. Their website has no information about anything. Just marketing fluff. Same with their video.

The donut motor appears real, but the way they are promoting it make it look like a scam also.

Anyway, back to the OP: it is proven that vehicles are not very price elastic. That means $7500 does not have a significant impact on the buying decision. This is proven by the data. Does it have an impact? Sure, but it is minor. And for someone willing to spend $100k, $107k is not that big a deal.

I do not agree with the article the OP referenced. I agree with this:
https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/anti-ev-agenda.54595/post-927584

 

[raylepper]

There's no way EVs are going to disappear. We in the US are just way far behind in adoption. For example, in Norway over 95% of new car sales in 2025 were EV. There are a lot more headwinds here. Cheap (relatively) gas, lack of EV charging infrastructure, less choices, regulatory changes, etc. It's going to happen but it's going to take a lot longer than originally planned.

Spot on. Pretty much all the other developed countries are moving quickly toward EV adoption. As long as the oil industry holds sway over so much of our political landscape, we'll be behind.

 

[kallisti5]

I'm of the firm opinion that it's too late to stuff EV's back into the box. Most EV owners I know are at least two vehicles deep at this point. (Hell, I'm on number 4)

Pros:
* Faster
* Cheaper to maintain
* Cheaper to drive
* EV Trucks do truck stuff just fine.

Cons:
* I can't haul cattle trailers cross-country without stopping 50 times.

Most sane people do the math above and realize pretty quick "HOLY SHIT THIS IS AWESOME". They're repeat customers. Kids of those people immediately want EV's too when they're 16.

Gas vehicles will always be here, but oil and gas companies are too late to punch EV's back into the box this time.

Better, faster, cheaper always wins.

 

[CO-Ed]

Considering the current budget maybe a tax on ICE for pollution of maybe $250 for each 1000 pounds of GVWR. Double for imported ICE.

What about reducing/removing subsidies on gasoline?

 

[kallisti5]

What about reducing/removing subsidies on gasoline?

This is the obvious sane path... but that would never fly unfortunately.

The public at large (especially... less bright people), are too focused on cHeAP gAS. Raising gas prices by reducing subsidies would be seen as tax increases (even though it's a net decrease)

We would need a nearly 50% EV population to get to this being potential policy.

America's always going to America. Over 60% of people want legal pot, and that's still not a thing.

 

[Zoidz]

Diesel locomotives replaced steam locomotives.
Jets replaced prop aircraft.
Mechanical computers replaced the abacus.
Electronic computers replaced mechanical computers.
Transistors replaced tubes.
ICs replaced discrete components.
Steam cars replaced horse and carriage.
ICE cars replaced steam cars.
EVs will eventually replace ICE vehicles.

Technology evolves, and will continue to evolve, with the more efficient technology replacing older technology. Politics, business and society simply control how long it takes.

 

[mkhuffman]

What about reducing/removing subsidies on gasoline?

This is the obvious sane path... but that would never fly unfortunately.

The public at large (especially... less bright people), are too focused on cHeAP gAS. Raising gas prices by reducing subsidies would be seen as tax increases (even though it's a net decrease)

We would need a nearly 50% EV population to get to this being potential policy.

America's always going to America. Over 60% of people want legal pot, and that's still not a thing.

Tax policy regarding depreciating expenses <> subsidy.

And cheaper oil means cheaper everything, including cheaper BEVs and cheaper electricity. Cheaper oil means it will cost less for Rivian to build that huge plant in GA.

It is illogical to think that higher energy cost (and a higher oil price) is going to somehow help BEV sales. For sure higher oil prices will depress economic growth and hurt the sales of BEVs and everything else.

Everyone should want the cheapest oil possible, because the results will benefit everyone. And certainly it will benefit Rivian.

The BEV market is going to continue to grow because BEVs will continue to get better and better, and soon the value proposition of a BEV will be so clear nobody will want an ICEV anymore.

As an example, I purchased my first BEV not because of the price of oil, or some handout. I purchased it because it was the best vehicle for my needs. Same with the R1T.

Many people like me are going through the same decision process and making the same decision I made. And for similar reasons. None of which has to do with oil or gas prices, or a stupid handout.

You know what most people like about BEVs? Refueling at home. That is the home run that only BEVs offer. When your anti-BEV friend starts complaining about BEVs, talk up the home refueling angle. Nobody can complain about that at all.

 

[BTOR]

I think it just changes the calculus for whether you should buy one or not. People buy vehicles for all sorts of reasons. The tax credit is just one thing, and if you're buying your second one (and it's not a lease) then the credit would have no bearing on your decision since you wouldn't qualify for it again. Other EV headwinds:

• Gasoline prices are lower than they have been in recent years, less incentive to switch to electric to save money on fuel cost.
• More hybrids are available that further reduce the day-to-day operating cost differences between gas and EV.
• Electricity prices as a whole are increasing, outpacing inflation.
• Many municipalities are now charging hundreds of additional dollars to register an EV vs. a gas vehicle, also reducing the TCO gap.
• Battery/powertrain warranty on mainstream EVs are now ending, and a lot of people realize just how expensive these components are to replace when they're not under warranty.
• Insurance costs for EVs are up due to their incredible repair prices (see above) and quick insurance adjuster judgement about component failure.
• Service times for EVs can be very long (not just Rivian)
• EV novelty may be wearing off. It is for me. I've driven an EV for over 6 years. It's still a great driving experience, but the actual thrill and uniqueness of ownership has subsided.
• EVs are largely unrepairable by end users. This makes them less attractive to people buying them out of warranty.
• Lack of 3rd party repair shops mean expensive trips to the dealer/service center are sometimes the only way to keep an EV on the road.

None of these are really silver bullets that can kill EVs, but just a few of them are enough to drive a potential buyer away. I will probably not buy another Rivian due to price, (lack of) repairability, and diminishing novelty, but I haven't personally written EVs off altogether. I am excited for smaller, more afforadable EVs like the Slate and Ford's newer small truck.

Gasoline prices are lower than they have been in recent years, less incentive to switch to electric to save money on fuel cost.

Many municipalities are now charging hundreds of additional dollars to register an EV vs. a gas vehicle, also reducing the TCO gap.

@beatle you bring up some excellent points. Two of which really annoy me. Gas prices being so low is out right ridiculous and borderline criminal IMO. The second is the registration fees for EV's.

There should be a bottom ceiling on gas prices. Say $4/gal. If wholesale prices dropped low enough were retailers could sell for less than $4/gal. at the pump, the prices would fix at $4 and the difference would be collected as a tax that goes into the state transportation fund. The standard gas tax per gallon would remain so the states would generate additional revenue when wholesale prices drop. This way, the gas retailers would not take the hit, the gas guzzling consumers would.

Regarding registration fees. Not sure about other states but in Oregon it is incredibly expensive. And, the new transportation bill that passed is making it even more expensive (however, parts of the bill are being challenged and may go to the voters to decide). Essentially, as written, the older, less fuel efficient vehicles had the lowest license fees and the new, more fuel efficient vehicles pay the most, with EV's paying the highest. Completely backwards IMO. I'm hoping this is one of the articles in the bill that was challenged and will go to the voters.

Anywho... thanks for your post.

 

[Thedude]

There should be a bottom ceiling on gas prices. Say $4/gal. If wholesale prices dropped low enough were retailers could sell for less than $4/gal. at the pump, the prices would fix at $4 and the difference would be collected as a tax that goes into the state transportation fund. The standard gas tax per gallon would remain so the states would generate additional revenue when wholesale prices drop. This way, the gas retailers would not take the hit, the gas guzzling consumers would.

That sounds nice on paper but what about those of us who live where EVs don’t work, or have a line of work not suitable for an EV, or aren’t wealthy enough to be able to swap their reliable 30 year old Camry for an EV?

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