F150 Lightning Maybe Dead?

[savethemanual]

Price is a significant issue here too, EV's are simply more expensive...there's no getting around that currently. Yes there are long term savings but most don't look beyond upfront cost.

Kia Telluride base-$36390
Kia EV9 base - $54900

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[Great Gatsby]

Yup. I wonder how well the Caddy SUVs are selling. The Escalade doesn't count, but the Lyric and the Vistiq are decent EV SUVs.

Really well, so might as well hit the brakes when you have the ball rolling:

https://insideevs.com/news/774488/cadillac-q3-sales-40-percent/
https://electrek.co/2025/10/05/cadi...half-of-all-caddies-sold-in-q3-were-electric/
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/02/evs-are-giving-cadillac-a-shot-at-luxury-leadership-.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/experts-stunned-cadillac-soars-past-003500272.html

 

[BigSkies]

It would be sad to lose the Lightning, but it wouldn't surprise me. I don't think they have a pathway to get the Lightning/Mach-E to profitability without a dedicated EV platform for them.

I think the GM trucks will stick around. They have enough riding on their Ultium platform that I think they have a path to profitability on their overall EV lineup.

Losing the Lightning might bump R1T sales a bit, but I don't think there's a huge overlap in the target customers.

 

[Great Gatsby]

Price is a significant issue here too, EV's are simply more expensive...there's no getting around that currently. Yes there are long term savings but most don't look beyond upfront cost.

Kia Telluride base-$36390
Kia EV9 base - $54900

Good example. I've always loved the Telluride and a fully loaded one ends where the EV9 begins. The EV9 base model is garbage. I generally prefer EVs, but the Telluride vs EV9 is no contest. The pricing just makes things worse.

But yes, this is another point the executives keep missing. You not only have to convince people to buy into a new technology that is alien from all they've know, but also for $20k-$30k more? And the pitch is to save money on gas...eventually to save money overall? Again, not a mystery why these things aren't flying off the lot. Not to mention, traditional dealerships do EVs no favor. I cannot tell you how many times I've gone in to ask about an EV at a dealership and the sales person is puzzled, at best. Not making excuses, but I would not find hard it to believe that dealers aren't exactly trying to push EVs sales either. Might as well be alien to them as well.

 

[SwampNut]

The Lightning is Ford's attempt to keep the truck old-feeling and appeal to old-think buyers, but be somewhat modern. I don't think anyone wants that. You still won't get the old-think buyers, and I've experienced this. The people who are still fearful and/or stupid about EVs still won't buy it; they give me all the old tired EV myths as excuses for going ICE. And people like me who sit in it and realize it could just as well be my dad's 1990s F150 won't buy it. We absolutely, literally, drove from the Ford dealer to the place where we bought the Rivian. Less than one hour later.

 

[BigSkies]

The Lightning is Ford's attempt to keep the truck old-feeling and appeal to old-think buyers, but be somewhat modern. I don't think anyone wants that. You still won't get the old-think buyers, and I've experienced this. The people who are still fearful and/or stupid about EVs still won't buy it; they give me all the old tired EV myths as excuses for going ICE. And people like me who sit in it and realize it could just as well be my dad's 1990s F150 won't buy it. We absolutely, literally, drove from the Ford dealer to the place where we bought the Rivian. Less than one hour later.

There's different markets for different people. Some people prefer the Lightning and what that brings. We here prefer the Rivian, and we are correct.

Sales numbers are what tell the bigger story. Ford has been selling Lightning's at a 40k/yr rate IIRC. The best estimates I've seen are about ~10k/yr for the R1T. There's about 4x as many people choosing a Lightning over an R1T for their own reasons.

By some measures 40k is a decent number, but it's not nearly enough to hit profitability.

I stick with the ballpark estimate that an EV maker needs to be making about 500k EV's per year to hit profitability. Ford doesn't have a clear pathway to make that happen with the Mach-E & Lightning. Their new platform might.

 

[savethemanual]

I stick with the ballpark estimate that an EV maker needs to be making about 500k EV's per year to hit profitability. Ford doesn't have a clear pathway to make that happen with the Mach-E & Lightning. Their new platform might.

Rivian sells way less than 500k EV's and they made a small gross profit last quarter....I realize there are several temporary factors in how they got to this small profit but the point is it can be done on lower volumes.

 

[Yota2R1T]

Good example. I've always loved the Telluride and a fully loaded one ends where the EV9 begins. The EV9 base model is garbage. I generally prefer EVs, but the Telluride vs EV9 is no contest. The pricing just makes things worse.

But yes, this is another point the executives keep missing. You not only have to convince people to buy into a new technology that is alien from all they've know, but also for $20k-$30k more? And the pitch is to save money on gas...eventually to save money overall? Again, not a mystery why these things aren't flying off the lot. Not to mention, traditional dealerships do EVs no favor. I cannot tell you how many times I've gone in to ask about an EV at a dealership and the sales person is puzzled, at best. Not making excuses, but I would not find hard it to believe that dealers aren't exactly trying to push EVs sales either. Might as well be alien to them as well.

On the Telluride VS. EV9 direct comparison ; I have much better respect for the Kia EV drive train over the ICE - to the point where I would not even consider getting a KIA ICE, where the EV9 IS extremely viable. Hope you get my point.
Regarding the dealer model, 100% agree. They actively steer you away and offer dis-incentives to EV option.

 

[BigSkies]

Rivian sells way less than 500k EV's and they made a small gross profit last quarter....I realize there are several temporary factors in how they got to this small profit but the point is it can be done on lower volumes.

To clarify, I am talking about a positive free-cash-flow.

Positive gross margins are a great step, but that's different than what I was referring to.

My back-of-envelope math is that Rivian can't get to positive FCF with just the Normal factory alone. They need GA online for that.

There's obviously variability to this number based on margins, price points, product mix, etc. But I think it's a helpful guideline.

 

[skyguyscott]

I think the F-150 Lightening is an important vehicle that served and still serves an absolutely essential purpose. First, while it is true that Ford basically slapped a BEV drive train on an existing ICE platform, rather than engineer a truly efficient EV from the chassis up (imagine how much more remarkable that could have been) the truck made real in the minds of countless truck guys the legitimacy of BEV trucks.

Ford rushed the Lighting to production after Elon and the Cybertruck annoucement and the ensuing reservation explosion to get in the game. The F-150 has been the most popular truck for decades. Despite Tesla's remarkable achievements up until that date, Truck guys were largely dismissive, if not outright scornful of BEVs in general and BEV trucks in particular -- just read the archived threads in any towing forum you wish.

When Ford announced the Lightening, suddenly the entire tenor of the discussion changed, you would have thought Ford invented BEV trucks. Because it was Ford, the very idea of a BEV truck immediately went from silly to sane and sensible.

Yes, for many applications, cross-country towing in particular, a BEV pickup remains impractical and/or overpriced. But it took the Ford F-150 to make the proposition plausible.

I think the R1T is a better vehicle overall, at least for my purposes, but for many, a brand new, unproven brand is still a bridge too far. I genuinely hope there is enough vision and support at Ford to take this opportunity to engineer a truly remarkable Lightening that makes a use case so compelling, the nay-sayers will have to concede the truck bests the ICE version in many if not most metrics.

 

[Great Gatsby]

I think the F-150 Lightening is an important vehicle that served and still serves an absolutely essential purpose. First, while it is true that Ford basically slapped a BEV drive train on an existing ICE platform, rather than engineer a truly efficient EV from the chassis up (imagine how much more remarkable that could have been) the truck made real in the minds of countless truck guys the legitimacy of BEV trucks.

Ford rushed the Lighting to production after Elon and the Cybertruck annoucement and the ensuing reservation explosion to get in the game. The F-150 has been the most popular truck for decades. Despite Tesla's remarkable achievements up until that date, Truck guys were largely dismissive, if not outright scornful of BEVs in general and BEV trucks in particular -- just read the archived threads in any towing forum you wish.

When Ford announced the Lightening, suddenly the entire tenor of the discussion changed, you would have thought Ford invented BEV trucks. Because it was Ford, the very idea of a BEV truck immediately went from silly to sane and sensible.

Yes, for many applications, cross-country towing in particular, a BEV pickup remains impractical and/or overpriced. But it took the Ford F-150 to make the proposition plausible.

I think the R1T is a better vehicle overall, at least for my purposes, but for many, a brand new, unproven brand is still a bridge too far. I genuinely hope there is enough vision and support at Ford to take this opportunity to engineer a truly remarkable Lightening that makes a use case so compelling, the nay-sayers will have to concede the truck bests the ICE version in many if not most metrics.

Well put.

 

[Ilovejunebugs]

The Lightning is...fine. My husband initially liked it as it was the same as his ICE F150-but electric. We've owned one for almost 3 years. Compared to Rivian, both the ford software and app are awful, and the range and charging (dcfc) are not good. However, it's a great truck for local work (which is why we put it in our service fleet for exactly that).

 

[CharonPDX]

"They definitely surprised us. Customers are not interested in a $75,000 electric vehicle."
-Ford CEO Jim Farley

Maybe if they'd kept the $50,000 version around...

 

[COdogman]

It's funny how Farley says people won't buy a $75k EV, but he has no problem selling them ICE trucks that cost way more than $75k. You have to actually show people the value in the product instead of expecting the customer to find it on their own... Ford/ GM/ Stellantis have done a terrible job with this.... This is what happens when you just recycle old ideas for decades - you get lazy.

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