January/Feb delivery windows

[eggpaul]

Well, here we are months later, let’s do it again while we still wait!

I agree with all of that, if the vehicle is one that Rivian would be willing to deliver to a non-affiliated customer.

If it has quality issues or if Rivian is giving it to an employee because they don’t want to deliver it to a “real” customer (for a quality/production readiness reason) then it seems different to me.

Oh. 100% agree with you. Maybe my sarcasm wasn't obvious. I was saying we kept hearing that real deliveries were happening since the vehicle were registered and insured to those persons. Those people with that argument are pretty quite now, because they know they are wrong.

I don't count any of those as real deliveries, because like you said they are all affiliated with rivian and the trucks just don't seem to be ready for the public.

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[SeaGeo]

I guess so. And anyone not on this forum is a fake customer as well.

People are differentiating between “customers” who get a $24000 subsidy and an NDA vs those “customers” who have waited longer, pay full price and have no NDA. Could the language be changed a little sure but there is a clear differentiator.

So I've been pretty careful to not say something along the lines of "fake customers" vs "real customers" (hence using Rivian's third part customer term). But, as @Guy pointed out, there's a differentiator there.

And Rivian is choosing to delay third party customer deliveries who have been waiting 3+ years for customers who were hired within the last 6 months and presumably placed their order then.

And they're getting launch editions. Yet the 2018 max pack holders aren't able to get launch editions now.

I think it's totally fair to ask why and at what point they stop prioritizing employees over third party customer deliveries.

 

[SeaGeo]

Why does there need to be any differentiation? They are both being delivered and paid for by a customer. The employee deliveries are still paid for by the employees. Has anyone actually confirmed that the employees have signed an NDA?

I haven't seen whether there's a true NDA or not, but they obviously can't/don't want to share negative feedback publicly about the product. (I don't blame them).

Rivian has differentiated the deliveries. Both in their SEC filings, and by continuing to favor internal deliveries at the cost of delaying third party deliveries (see 2021 hires getting trucks and 2018 orders with Jan/Feb delivery windows being pushed to March).

 

[emoore]

I haven't seen whether there's a true NDA or not, but they obviously can't/don't want to share negative feedback publicly about the product.

Rivian has differentiated the deliveries. Both in their SEC filings, and by continuing to favor internal deliveries at the cost of delaying third party deliveries (see 2021 hires getting trucks and 2018 orders with Jan/Feb delivery windows being pushed to March).

I didn't think that deliveries were differentiated in their SEC reporting. I don't remember reading about employees in the SEC reporting. And how much negative feedback would you provide if you were counting on the company for a paycheck and most likely part of your compensation is Rivian stock options. I sure wouldn't.

 

[SeaGeo]

I didn't think that deliveries were differentiated in their SEC reporting. I don't remember reading about employees in the SEC reporting. And how much negative feedback would you provide if you were counting on the company for a paycheck and most likely part of your compensation is Rivian stock options. I sure wouldn't.

They communicated that nearly all of their deliveries have been to employees and they have had some "third party deliveries." That's literally where I got the term.

And I wouldn't either. Which is why I clarified that in my post above. Tbh, in a lot of ways I think the delivery process is doing the employees a disservice because they seem to be encouraged to share their deliveries publicly, but they are also our only source of real world info about the trucks. So they get peppered with questions that they either can't answer, don't know how to, shouldn't, or just deal with stupid annoying questions constantly (are you an employee being Q #1).

 

[paariv]

Why does there need to be any differentiation? They are both being delivered and paid for by a customer. The employee deliveries are still paid for by the employees. Has anyone actually confirmed that the employees have signed an NDA?

Once the trucks are 100% ready for the general public, there’s no need to differentiate. But when Rivian claims to have started “production” but then doesn’t deliver to anyone but employees for several months, then it’s natural to wonder if the trucks are really third party customer ready or not.

I think they’re not ready, or else Rivian would have started delivering to forum members. But we’ll never know for sure.

 

[SANZC02]

I think people are putting too much into saying that no one on this forum is reporting any deliveries.

There are 4789 members on the forum, I do not have access to member activity but look through the 240 pages of members. Looks like more than 50% have 0 or 1 posts. Looks like maybe 95% has < 8 posts, that leaves maybe 240 active users. I have no way of seeing last logins, so that may be high but let’s assume it is correct.

Out of that 240, we know for certain some have not placed a preorder yet but we will still include them.

That would mean of the 71k preorders we have < .33% of the preorder holders active on this forum. We know there are 2 confirmed deliveries on this forum, we also know at least 1020 vehicles were delivered by the end of 2021. Let’s assume they tanked the deliveries so far this year and only did on average 50 a week, that is another 300 so they have 1320 delivered.

If our 240 active members are equally represented we would be able to account for 4.3 of the 1320 vehicles of the total deliveries.

Now let us assume they did a 75/25 split between employees and non employees. That would have been 330 customer deliveries of which we would represent 1 vehicle. We know of 2 at least that were confirmed.

Are my numbers right, who knows, but at least they are based on things we can look at and the assumptions are more than smoke and mirrors. I think I was conservative, there are only 20 users with 633 or more posts so the active users are probably lower, active users with a reservation would be lower, and I think 1320 is lower, maybe closer to 1800 but we should know that on March 10th.

If I get really board I could go through the 240 pages of users and put the post counts in a spreadsheet to get and accurate breakdown, just does not sound that fun right now. The point I am trying to make is people are making blanket assumptions and stating them as if they are fact with no data to base it on.

 

[SeaGeo]

I think people are putting too much into saying that no one on this forum is reporting any deliveries.

There are 4789 members on the forum, I do not have access to member activity but look through the 240 pages of members. Looks like more than 50% have 0 or 1 posts. Looks like maybe 95% has < 8 posts, that leaves maybe 240 active users. I have no way of seeing last logins, so that may be high but let’s assume it is correct.

Out of that 240, we know for certain some have not placed a preorder yet but we will still include them.

That would mean of the 71k preorders we have < .33% of the preorder holders active on this forum. We know there are 2 confirmed deliveries on this forum, we also know at least 1020 vehicles were delivered by the end of 2021. Let’s assume they tanked the deliveries so far this year and only did on average 50 a week, that is another 300 so they have 1320 delivered.

If our 240 active members are equally represented we would be able to account for 4.3 of the 1320 vehicles of the total deliveries.

Now let us assume they did a 75/25 split between employees and non employees. That would have been 330 customer deliveries of which we would represent 1 vehicle. We know of 2 at least that were confirmed.

Are my numbers right, who knows, but at least they are based on things we can look at and the assumptions are more than smoke and mirrors. I think I was conservative, there are only 20 users with 633 or more posts so the active users are probably lower, active users with a reservation would be lower, and I think 1320 is lower, maybe closer to 1800 but we should know that on March 10th.

If I get really board I could go through the 240 pages of users and put the post counts in a spreadsheet to get and accurate breakdown, just does not sound that fun right now. The point I am trying to make is people are making blanket assumptions and stating them as if they are fact with no data to base it on.

Counterpoint: across multiple websites they are 0 for on deliveries that were scheduled for Jan or Feb as far as anyone has noted. That's not just here. I haven't seen any non-employees confirm they have received within their delivery window for Jan/Feb on here, Reddit, RS, Rivian*wners forum, or Facebook pages.

And I think the frustration isn't that nobody here has had a delivery. It's that they are seemingly prioritizing recent hires over long time preorder holders while missing an entire two month delivery window for everyone we know who was given that window. Assuming the feedback folks have gotten from their guides applies to everyone in Feb.

 

[AdamsFan1983]

Not for nothing, for all the crap we give Rivian, it’s not like it’s any better over at Tesla.


Sorry to say, it’s just the crumby world we live right now……

https://insideevs.com/news/568244/tesla-modelx-delivery-delays-july2022/

 

[Longhorngirl]

Not for nothing, for all the crap we give Rivian, it’s not like it’s any better over at Tesla.


Sorry to say, it’s just the crumby world we live right now……

https://insideevs.com/news/568244/tesla-modelx-delivery-delays-july2022/

I think communication is better at Tesla than Rivian in this case. Kim Java was notified in February that her April delivery date got pushed back to July. Unlike Rivian, who tells people after their delivery date is missed that their delivery date won’t happen. It is unacceptable for Rivian to tell a customer in November that they won’t meet that customers October delivery date.

 

[paariv]

I think people are putting too much into saying that no one on this forum is reporting any deliveries.

There are 4789 members on the forum, I do not have access to member activity but look through the 240 pages of members. Looks like more than 50% have 0 or 1 posts. Looks like maybe 95% has < 8 posts, that leaves maybe 240 active users. I have no way of seeing last logins, so that may be high but let’s assume it is correct.

Out of that 240, we know for certain some have not placed a preorder yet but we will still include them.

That would mean of the 71k preorders we have < .33% of the preorder holders active on this forum. We know there are 2 confirmed deliveries on this forum, we also know at least 1020 vehicles were delivered by the end of 2021. Let’s assume they tanked the deliveries so far this year and only did on average 50 a week, that is another 300 so they have 1320 delivered.

If our 240 active members are equally represented we would be able to account for 4.3 of the 1320 vehicles of the total deliveries.

Now let us assume they did a 75/25 split between employees and non employees. That would have been 330 customer deliveries of which we would represent 1 vehicle. We know of 2 at least that were confirmed.

Are my numbers right, who knows, but at least they are based on things we can look at and the assumptions are more than smoke and mirrors. I think I was conservative, there are only 20 users with 633 or more posts so the active users are probably lower, active users with a reservation would be lower, and I think 1320 is lower, maybe closer to 1800 but we should know that on March 10th.

If I get really board I could go through the 240 pages of users and put the post counts in a spreadsheet to get and accurate breakdown, just does not sound that fun right now. The point I am trying to make is people are making blanket assumptions and stating them as if they are fact with no data to base it on.

This is such a zombie argument. It just won’t die! And I think it’s pretty clearly wrong:

1) It ignores statistics. Even a small sample should contain a few deliveries if they’re actually taking place. But ours contains zero - of longtime forum members (iwantatesla only posted after delivery, right?). And it ignores the many other forums on the internet, all of which are identical to this one on deliveries to members. We haven’t seen a single bit of good delivery news this year, not even a confirmed delivery date. To the contrary, we have heard of delays.

2) It ignores our history. We knew immediately about guide contacts, ducktruck got flown out to the pre-release event, etc… we have known when things are happening, as you’d expect from a population that selects for early orderers. Are there any developments we’ve missed? None come to mind, so I’d expect our knowledge - no deliveries, but additional delays this year - to reflect reality.

3) it ignores Rivian’s history of false starts, missed deadlines, broken promises. Most likely conclusion when we see nothing happening is that there are, again, undisclosed problems.

4) it’s wrong on its own terms. You shouldn’t use total preorders for the total population size when deliveries are currently limited to launch editions. We have a much much greater proportion of total launch edition orders in our membership than we do of the total preorder numbers. Just look at how many 2018 orders are among our ranks! So we have a much greater likelihood of seeing an early delivery than you’ve calculated.

Also, I have no idea why you assumed a 75/25 employee/3rd party split when it’s more like 99/1.

Bottom line: best conclusion is that third party deliveries are not happening in any volume. And the burden of proof should be on those who claim otherwise.

 

[888tom888]

As someone who went thru a similar experience getting my Tesla, patience is a virtue. I endured delay after delay and it stunk and I got frustrated. Many times, I was going to just do something else. I even leased a BMW i3 ($200/month). Finally my Tesla showed up and I can barely remember being pissed or frustrated. I'm in the same boat with Rivian. After I did the house test drive, I got amped up to get my Rivian. However, I'm MONTHS away. Bummer. But on a daily basis, I get into my Tesla and I"m grateful for what I have. Rivian sure could do a better job of communicating to its launch customer, as we are supposedly the first to get our vehicles. Talk to me, keep me in the loop and I'm all in. Leave me with sketchy details and having to rely on forums like this and I'm more likely to jump ship. I've got deposits on a Fisker Ocean and once Cadillac opens up Lyriq reservations. I'm going to put a deposit down on one. Then its first one to my driveway WINS! Lesson here, always have a PLan B

 

[lostpacket]

Has anyone considered.... ok stay with me here.... but has anyone considered that all these delays are actually a secret ploy to get more people to visit their meditation centers?


I should totally be a detective.

 

[SoCalTravels]

Why does there need to be any differentiation? They are both being delivered and paid for by a customer. The employee deliveries are still paid for by the employees. Has anyone actually confirmed that the employees have signed an NDA?

I would be very surprised if there wasn’t an NDA. I can almost guarantee there is one. I applied for a position over the summer and did a few interviews. The recruiter made me sign an NDA before they would even communicate via email. In the 3 interviews I had nothing was shared that wasn’t readily known on their website let alone this forum. There were even a few instances where I (an enthusiast) knew more than the recruiter or interviewer working for the company.

 

[Dark-Fx]

There were even a few instances where I (an enthusiast) knew more than the recruiter or interviewer working for the company.

A couple weeks back I walked an R1T driver through the process of using the emergency release for the charge port because his truck wasn't letting go. He was a Rivian employee. He didn't have any idea that existed. I think just because they work there doesn't mean they are going to have extensive knowledge that the public doesn't, unless it's about their specific job.

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