May/June Deliveries Thread

[LoneStar]

What I have heard them say is that you won't lose your place in line, but the line for the R1T is different than the line for the R1S is the assumption I've been operating under based on the above.

You definitely stated it more accurately. Was trying to say in so many words that I don't trust at this point the switch would be in the neighborhood of a 1-2 month delay but could be many months out if I jump ship from the L.E. R1T to the L.E. R1S. Of course, like everything in the world of Rivians, there is near zero hard info to go by communications-wise.

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[Mcdubjr]

Their current process for assigning guides doesn’t even register that you’ve changed models. Changed in Jan R1S->R1T and I still get R1S emails and timeline. I‘ll probably have a guide assigned tomorrow based off my R1S email.

 

[LaunchGreen]

I inquired on an update with my guide today. He indicated my delivery is likely to be closer to the end of June due to the current delay (for Ocean Coast) but the impacts are not yet certain. Two weeks ago I was told there was no known delay and that I was still set for delivery in my window (May/June). I know "end of June" still falls in my window, but this does not give me confidence it won't delay into July or later. Fingers crossed...

well, poop.

 

[LoneStar]

more party poopering.... the brakes sure slammed at the end of March (Q1) with tidal wave of delivery reports on the forum and elsewhere.. suppose many of us need to reset expectations for another Qtr-end onslaught and view the May-June period as June 13-30th .... if we're lucky enough to get one before July.

 

[Mysta]

Link? Based on the “order number” poll I was thinking there was a fairly even buildup from Nov 2018 till the s-1 (dated 10/1/21), which showed on 48,390 pre orders as of 9/30/21. The "model" I have in mind is that the order rate picked up a little after that, due to all the press around the s-1 and IPO, but there were still a lot of orders before Sept 2021.

Could easily be wrong, interested in any data available.

9/30/21. 48390 pre orders (S-1)

12/15/21. 71,000 (q3 earnings release)

3/8/22. 83,000 pre orders (q4 release)

2020 article about the order number poll here:
https://insideevs.com/news/437341/rivian-r1t-30-thousand-reservations/amp/

So my point is like Feb 21 to Sept 2020 have about same orders as Sept 21. And you see the spike at Nov, is that from people misunderstanding and putting their config? probably.

So this is super just napkin math but according to this each response before Sept 21 represents about 40 people where each one starting Sept 21 represents like 51. Which kinda confirms that people before are more likely to respond to polls.

So then scribble a lil more extrapolation about maybe 25k before Nov 2020, and about 23k between Nov 20 to August 21? Obviously super rough guesses.

 

[Inkedsphynx]

There are going to be a lot of Adventure trims delivered before all the LEs are complete. They aren't going to deliver a truck to someone who is 2000 miles away from the nearest service center. Priority delivery means if you have an LE and your neighbor has an Adventure Trim, and they have the parts to build both, they will build the LE first and deliver it to you first.

So... you're agreeing with me? I never said I expected ALL LE's to be delivered before Adventures. I said I expected 'nearly' all. There will always be outliers.

 

[nc10]

So my point is like Feb 21 to Sept 2020 have about same orders as Sept 21

I guess you meant Feb 2020 here not Fev 2021? I agree, not many orders in that 7 month window.

 

[LaunchGreen]

more party poopering.... the brakes sure slammed at the end of March (Q1) with tidal wave of delivery reports on the forum and elsewhere.. suppose many of us need to reset expectations for another Qtr-end onslaught and view the May-June period as June 13-30th .... if we're lucky enough to get one before July.

9 forum deliveries in April. Down from the 63!! in the last week of March and 24 the week before that. I'm sure there is some lag time in reporting but definitely a return to "normal" after the push to get them out in Q1. I do still think we are going to see an increasing regular rate of deliveries throughout the quarter.

 

[Scoiatael]

So... you're agreeing with me? I never said I expected ALL LE's to be delivered before Adventures. I said I expected 'nearly' all. There will always be outliers.

Mostly yes. End of quarter rush seems to be different though. Wouldn't be surprised if at the end of June they pump out a bunch of Adventures even if they aren't done with LEs for that particular service center.

 

[LoneStar]

I struggle with understanding how Rivian can say with confidence, which they surely did in the last market report-out, that 2022 targets 15,000 R1 deliveries. They didn't do 10% of that number in Q1. How the hell are they going to get to 9X Q1 performance in nine months when there's no evidence of a steady and growing pace of deliveries? Another Quarterly push towards end of Q2 would tell me they are in a dire situation.

 

[AdamsFan1983]

The frustration from seeing Adventures get delivered with LE's still outstanding is that one of the biggest perks of going LE was 'priority delivery'. They at least made it sound like LEs were going to be delivered or nearly all delivered before they started other trims.

That was a major selling point of going LE to me. LG is great, and the couple grand worth of free upgrades is nice too, but 95% of my choice to go LE was to get that priority delivery and hopefully get my truck sooner than my order date might have otherwise indicated.

Not really sure how Rivian made ppl think that when no “real” le customers had gotten their truck last dec, and their website said adventure deliveries were beginning in January…..

 

[nc10]

Rivian has stated many times we can switch models without detrimental impact to delivery.

I read a variation of that "switch model" phrase, I think it only applied before configuration. I don't think we can safely switch after we've submitted the data that Rivian used to estimate delivery slots. From my order confirmation email;

"If at any time you decide you'd like to switch models, no need to cancel your order and lose your place in line — when it’s time to configure your vehicle, you’ll be able to switch between the R1T and R1S."

 

[LaunchGreen]

I struggle with understanding how Rivian can say with confidence, which they surely did in the last market report-out, that 2022 targets 15,000 R1 deliveries. They didn't do 10% of that number in Q1. How the hell are they going to get to 9X Q1 performance in nine months when there's no evidence of a steady and growing pace of deliveries? Another Quarterly push towards end of Q2 would tell me they are in a dire situation.

No evidence of a growing pace of deliveries?!?!?!

Anyways, production ramps are typically exponential. I posted a couple of scenarios here: https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/...delivery-numbers-2-553-1-227.4502/post-126199

 

[nc10]

I struggle with understanding how Rivian can say with confidence, which they surely did in the last market report-out, that 2022 targets 15,000 R1 deliveries. They didn't do 10% of that number in Q1. no evidence of a steady and growing pace of deliveries?

Would have liked to have seen more deliveries in Q1, but definitely increasing the pace of production.

Q3 2021: 12 EV’s produced, 11 delivered
Q4 2021. 1003 EV’s produced, 909 delivered
Jan 1 - Mar 8, Q1 2022 1410 produced ?? deliveries (low I expect)
Mar 8 - Mar 31 Q1 2022 1143 produced. (total of 2553 in Q1 about 2.5X the previous quarter produced)


Rivian produced right at 10% of the 2022 production forecast (25k) in Q1. I've not seen a delivery forecast, I expect it will end up being 2-4 weeks worth of production less than 25000. Making deliveries mid-late December will likely go even slower than normal due to holiday effects. From the Q1 earnings letter:

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[LoneStar]

No evidence of a growing pace of deliveries?!?!?!

You are being a bit selective in my statement. Sure Q1 demonstrated evidence of a short-term spike of rising deliveries in the latter part of March. Far quieter so far since suggesting Rivian emptied out "all its bullets." Clearing its own factory lot and delivery centers of stocked inventory.

Don't get me wrong, I very much want to be wrong here. Just saying that any exponential growth in pace of deliveries is undermined by an inchworm approach to moving its product.

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