R1S demand slowing down?

[fbkr]

Anyone else think concerns about weakened demand may be overblown?

In my area (NYC) the number of R1S vehicles in the shop have stayed roughly the same (130-150) over the last month despite the fact that Rivian continues to ramp production...

Perhaps other people are seeing something different?

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[Whatever_this_is]

Anyone else think concerns about weakened demand may be overblown?

In my area (NYC) the number of R1S vehicles in the shop have stayed roughly the same (130-150) over the last month despite the fact that Rivian continues to ramp production...

Perhaps other people are seeing something different?

Maybe they show only one of each distinct configurations? Do you see any identical ones with different VIN?

 

[fbkr]

They don't show VINs in the shop unfortunately. I haven't seen two perfectly identical vehicles, but I would chalk that up to the limited number of inventory more than anything else.

 

[Supratachophobia]

I posted this elsewhere. But my R1S is on hold for two main reasons; end of quarter reliability concerns and interest rates. The tax credit isn't really favorable either, and leasing with immediate buy-out would fix that, but it's not fair to Rivian for me to wait on that, IMO.

Oh, and now that PDM might be a software upgrade, I'm very interested in pulling the trigger sooner rather than later to get under 80k then immediately pay for the upgrade.

 

[Scoiatael]

Anyone else think concerns about weakened demand may be overblown?

In my area (NYC) the number of R1S vehicles in the shop have stayed roughly the same (130-150) over the last month despite the fact that Rivian continues to ramp production...

Perhaps other people are seeing something different?

Mostly quad motors in Southern California. There are a few pdm max pack as well. Shop has looked pretty much the same all week.

 

[CharonPDX]

They don't show VINs in the shop unfortunately. I haven't seen two perfectly identical vehicles, but I would chalk that up to the limited number of inventory more than anything else.

They simply don’t show identical configs separately. When I had access to the shop, there were times I saw every possible 21” config - but zero duplicates. (Plus a couple 22” and 20”. Just not the one I wanted.) The odds they’d have one of every possible 21” config - and only one of each?

 

[fbkr]

They simply don’t show identical configs separately. When I had access to the shop, there were times I saw every possible 21” config - but zero duplicates. (Plus a couple 22” and 20”. Just not the one I wanted.) The odds they’d have one of every possible 21” config - and only one of each?

You raise a good point. I took a quick look at the R1T shop which has far more inventory than the R1S shop and I am not seeing any perfectly identical configurations. Maybe there is a way to verify that for sure but I think you are on to something.

 

[RivRyan]

I currently see 542 R1Ts in the shop (Chicago-area, if they're restricting it regionally). They may have made a change because I am seeing what seem to be identical configurations, at least based on options visible in the main listing of vehicles. :

• 118 Dual Motor with Large Pack
• 28 Dual Motor with Max
• 105 Performance Dual with Large Pack
• 246 Performance Dual with Max
• 47 Quad with Large Pack
• 0 Quad with Max Pack

Never mind about identical configurations. I hadn't seen that these two have different interior colors.

 

[Whatever_this_is]

DM large battery still in strong demand in socal it seems but other configurations are readily available

 

[MidnightRivian]

Leasing now available with $7,500 credit included

https://rivian.com/configurations/list?MODEL=R1S

https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/...with-leasing-7-500-tax-credit-included.23379/

 

[fbkr]

Leasing now available with $7,500 credit included

https://rivian.com/configurations/list?MODEL=R1S

https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/...with-leasing-7-500-tax-credit-included.23379/

Wow! Sooner than I expected. And it looks like they have opened up the R1S shop to everybody now, not just reservation holders.

Kind of makes me worry a bit more about the demand picture. I thought they were fully booked on the R1S until late this year.

 

[Twitter Fingers]

Wow! Sooner than I expected. And it looks like they have opened up the R1S shop to everybody now, not just reservation holders.

Kind of makes me worry a bit more about the demand picture. I thought they were fully booked on the R1S until late this year.

They may have enough reservations for what they plan to produce this year, but if those people are sitting on shop access and not completing the purchase then it doesn't help much.

They definitely still have a decent backlog of Pre March 2022 (lower price) reservation but they are purposefully stretching those orders out through year-end to spread out the earnings hit.

 

[djsider2]

Why doesn't Rivian just crank out the DM Larges for the post price hike people instead of making us wait... I thought their margin on those were better than the QM?

 

[carsly]

Rivian is running into three problems that I see:

1. Higher than market pricing - see Kia EV9, upcoming Volvo EX90 and to be formally announced next week Porsche Macan EV. Oh, and the $80K dual-motor Cybertruck that will be shipping soon enough.
2. High-interest rates - the persistence of high-interest rates makes financing cost-prohibitive for large purchases over long periods of time
3. Reliability/service concerns - not enough service centers, hard to get appointments, and I'm willing to bet the FWD-only Dual Motors (yes, they run FWD most of the time) are going to have a lot of issues beginning with tire wear, excess wear on the front motor which has to handle 100% of the regen for a 3-ton beast and who knows what else. How many other 3+ ton vehicles do you know that are FWD? There are reasons this is not the case.
4. Upcoming NACS-port-enabled vehicles for Model Year 2025 - who wants to manage adapters for years when you can just wait a few more months and never have the issue?

OK, I said three, but I think the fourth one looms larger the farther we get into the calendar year. If you want #5 once they show the R2 design that could also push some people, hesitant already due the above (and more) to just wait a bit longer for that machine. Rivian has said 2026 for R2 but if they don't have the lines humming in mid/late 2025 they will never get there. Not enough demand for $100K R1's to sustain another two+ months let alone two+ years.

 

[Twitter Fingers]

Why doesn't Rivian just crank out the DM Larges for the post price hike people instead of making us wait... I thought their margin on those were better than the QM?

Because they had to beg Bosch for supply during the pandemic, so they could begin production, and had to agree to purchasing X number of units from them. The penalty for not purchasing the units is worse than the additional margin they make on the Enduro units. Once the contract with Bosch is up, things will improve greatly. IMO.

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