R1S ONLY: October 2022 Delivery Estimate Updates

[mike813]

Oct-Dec until yesterday, now Jan-Feb. I was upset for 12 hours, now I’m over the temporary disappointment and the likely loss of the $7500 tax credit and the wait continues.

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[Picard]

11/20 reservation, El cap/OC/22" - was 1H2023, now 2Q2023 So, Rivian hasn't actually moved me back but I am still bummed that at best, summer road trip is all I can hope for

 

[s00n]

Was H1 2023, now Apr-Jun 2023. Nov 2020 reservation, Black Mountain interior, never changed my configuration.

All in all this seems like "good" news to me. First delivery estimate that didn't move backwards. Progress.

Exact same boat. I guess living less than a mile from a SC helps. Only downside is watching all the Rivians go by, ha

 

[EarlyAdptr]

So, after reading this thread plus a lot (not all) of the other more general thread it seems like for "earlier" R1S pre-orders we have:
BM & FE interior: Feb-Mar 2023
OC interior: Apr-June 2023 <---- this is me

Later orders: 2nd H 2023 and later

Seems like they're planning R1S production for Q1'23 and OC in Q2'23.

 

[SCIronMike]

10/2019 order date. R1S adv, limestone, ocean coast, 21”. I live in Huntington Beach, close to the Costa Mesa SC. July-September 2023. Really bummed, especially since the wrap/detail shop that I use already wrapped a local customer limestone/BM R1S over a month ago.

 

[waitingforrivian]

Oct-Dec until yesterday, now Jan-Feb. I was upset for 12 hours, now I’m over the temporary disappointment and the likely loss of the $7500 tax credit and the wait continues.

You won’t lose the credit if u have signed the binding agreement before the new law was enacted, in which IRS would treat your sign date as the purchase date instead of the actual delivery date.

 

[mike813]

I’m in the same

You won’t lose the credit if u have signed the binding agreement before the new law was enacted, in which IRS would treat your sign date as the purchase date instead of the actual delivery date.

We’ll see. I signed the form but as per some of the insight here and elsewhere the chance of getting the rebate for deliveries in 2023 is still up in the air.

 

[Blakeney]

We’ll see. I signed the form but as per some of the insight here and elsewhere the chance of getting the rebate for deliveries in 2023 is still up in the air.

Super bummed. We live 30 mins for service center in Utah. Was recently the Oct-Dec. Now Jan-Feb. I know I should be happier than others as it could be worse. But now I’m thinking of changing my address to a service center where more vehicles are actually getting delivered. At this point what can I hurt is my thought..

 

[mike813]

Super bummed. We live 30 mins for service center in Utah. Was recently the Oct-Dec. Now Jan-Feb. I know I should be happier than others as it could be worse. But now I’m thinking of changing my address to a service center where more vehicles are actually getting delivered. At this point what can I hurt is my thought..

I would suggest don’t chance a thing. Listen to Tony Caravano in this video the guys at Rivian stories just posted. Tony says if you change your config your delivery will change to ‘pending’ likely until the next delivery window update cycle in January.

I’m also Jan-Feb, I’ll just standby and hope for guide contact. If they’re delivering to me in Florida by February, maybe that means they would let me pick it up in Normal in December.

 

[Blakeney]

I would suggest don’t chance a thing. Listen to Tony Caravano in this video the guys at Rivian stories just posted. Tony says if you change your config your delivery will change to ‘pending’ likely until the next delivery window update cycle in January.

I’m also Jan-Feb, I’ll just standby and hope for guide contact. If they’re delivering to me in Florida by February, maybe that means they would let me pick it up in Normal in December.

Yeah I did watch that actually just a min ago. I’m still on the fence. My interactive window may not update for a while but doesn’t mean I will have to wait until Jan-Feb.

There are just sooo many vehicles being delivered to California and Colorado which is 1.5hrs either way for me and a 7-8hr drive home.

It seems rivian is delivering not just based on config and if you’re close to a service center, but if they can save money loading an entire train to fewer stops than more vehicles to more stops, then the chances are better elsewhere.

We will see how patient I can be haha

 

[Pinny_s]

I’m a Feb 2021 reservation. R1S, Forest Green and Ocean Coast. Just bumped from 1st half of 2023 to July-Sept 2023. Really bummed.
Sure hope there isn’t a trend of post-March 2022 orders being delivered sooner.

I am an R1S 2/2021 as well, Adventure, OC, LA Silver, Florida, just got pushed to 2024, after FH2023, and before that Oct-Dec2022.
Definitely does not smell as Production delays, as Production is just improving nicely in last few months and expected to ramp up very quickly.

If it was configuration issues and Delivery locations, shouldn't they have respected patient pre orders (we are newbies compared to others) and offer them to make small configuration changes to expedite deliveries?

Who will not travel a few hours or even days to pick up a blue car instead of a Silver, to save a year?

My only conclusion is that they hope we will drop off since we cost them a good $17k difference (that is the exact difference of my own configuration, today vs pre March 2022, $94.3-$77.5).

BTW, a new order placed now, is estimated to begin delivery late 2023, a possible whole year before my order (any where in 2024).

It seems Rivian will not stop trying to drop as many of us as possible, I am expecting even more delays, package cancelations and changes that will force us to either drop or choose some change or upgrade at new prices.

This was caused by a single, significant price raise in march. I could just assume several price changes along a period of time could have avoided a bit of this discrepancy.

You still have a 2023 window... For now.

I also know of November 2021 orders, still estimated for 2023, I do wonder what are the reasons?

 

[mkg3]

I am an R1S 2/2021 as well, Adventure, OC, LA Silver, Florida, just got pushed to 2024, after FH2023, and before that Oct-Dec2022.
Definitely does not smell as Production delays, as Production is just improving nicely in last few months and expected to ramp up very quickly.

If it was configuration issues and Delivery locations, shouldn't they have respected patient pre orders (we are newbies compared to others) and offer them to make small configuration changes to expedite deliveries?

Who will not travel a few hours or even days to pick up a blue car instead of a Silver, to save a year?

My only conclusion is that they hope we will drop off since we cost them a good $17k difference (that is the exact difference of my own configuration, today vs pre March 2022, $94.3-$77.5).

BTW, a new order placed now, is estimated to begin delivery late 2023, a possible whole year before my order (any where in 2024).

It seems Rivian will not stop trying to drop as many of us as possible, I am expecting even more delays, package cancelations and changes that will force us to either drop or choose some change or upgrade at new prices.

This was caused by a single, significant price raise in march. I could just assume several price changes along a period of time could have avoided a bit of this discrepancy.

You still have a 2023 window... For now.

I also know of November 2021 orders, still estimated for 2023, I do wonder what are the reasons?

I agree on your point.

Completely believe that Rivian would rather lose a preorder that makes little to no profit, or worse, lose money on than to complete the order.

Frankly, I have been disappointed with how Rivian has handled the backlog and price increase. It's not about the timing of deliveries or the price itself; rather, it's how they have gone about them.

I always believe that companies need to live up to expectations they make - not what someone else makes. In this case, promises made, promises kept should be that they fulfill preorders before new orders. Doesn't have to be exact but in spirt and for the most part.

They should have stuck to the price increase and not roll them back, then hope people cancel by stretching the deliveries. The EDV provides great cover for them to say they're ramping up the best they can, but they have a choice which vehicles and when.

I know many here believe Rivian should get a pass because it's a new company and a startup. I disagree to the notion that just because they are new, they should be held to a different standards than established. The behavior of the company is a reflection of its leaders. In this case, it is clear that RJ is a first time executive/CEO and is running the company with what he knows. It is not enough and they need a real executive that can run an automobile manufacturing company - a real COO.

Many here point to Elon and Tesla about what a joke they are and distaste for them here but they are getting it done. They are getting do so much so that they are the target of every auto mfg in the world. No one mentions Rivian. No one does because they are insignificant today and show little to no signs of being more at this time.

Rivian is at a cross roads of being something more or ultimately fail and be absorbed into another legacy auto mfg or being taken over by Amazon.

 

[Gamma rays]

I am an R1S 2/2021 as well, Adventure, OC, LA Silver, Florida, just got pushed to 2024, after FH2023, and before that Oct-Dec2022.
Definitely does not smell as Production delays, as Production is just improving nicely in last few months and expected to ramp up very quickly.

If it was configuration issues and Delivery locations, shouldn't they have respected patient pre orders (we are newbies compared to others) and offer them to make small configuration changes to expedite deliveries?

Who will not travel a few hours or even days to pick up a blue car instead of a Silver, to save a year?

My only conclusion is that they hope we will drop off since we cost them a good $17k difference (that is the exact difference of my own configuration, today vs pre March 2022, $94.3-$77.5).

BTW, a new order placed now, is estimated to begin delivery late 2023, a possible whole year before my order (any where in 2024).

It seems Rivian will not stop trying to drop as many of us as possible, I am expecting even more delays, package cancelations and changes that will force us to either drop or choose some change or upgrade at new prices.

This was caused by a single, significant price raise in march. I could just assume several price changes along a period of time could have avoided a bit of this discrepancy.

You still have a 2023 window... For now.

I also know of November 2021 orders, still estimated for 2023, I do wonder what are the reasons?

I think we are in the same boat. I ordered just a bit after you. Have LA silver as well, but BM interior. I have essentially no add-ons, so won't be surprised if Rivian loses money on this delivery. I got shoveled all the way back to 2024, too. If this is true (delaying delivery to get cancellation), then I have real doubts on the company's ethics.

GR

 

[et3rnul]

10/2019 order date. R1S adv, limestone, ocean coast, 21”. I live in Huntington Beach, close to the Costa Mesa SC. July-September 2023. Really bummed, especially since the wrap/detail shop that I use already wrapped a local customer limestone/BM R1S over a month ago.

Pretty close to me.

9/2019 reservation. LE, Glacier White, Ocean Coast 21. San Fernando Valley (Los Angeles), about 23 mi from service center. Was 1H23, but now July-September 2023. Wife and I were angry. I think I’m more upset because it just doesn’t make sense how some reservation holders (I’ve seen reports of mid-late 2020s) are either getting the same window as us, or even earlier, or have already taken delivery.

I‘m guessing its ocean coast dragging us back, but wasn’t the whole point of discontinuing the lighter wood material supposed to streamline this and encourage sooner delivery?

 

[AdamsFan1983]

Instead of getting more accurate, we now have a whole year, Jan~Dec 24, as the delivery window. I am 11/21 preorder with 2H2023 to 2024 as noted. Am in SoCal and less than 20 minutes of Irvine HQ and CM service center.

Just how bad is the ramp up at Rivian?

Started out saying that they can fulfill all the original backlog - roughly 50K by the end of 23. Then it was changed to total production, R1 and EDV, of 25K. Based on new dates, looks like it's another year of 25K?

If I were to guess, Rivian is placing EDV as the priority for Amazon and they probably make more profit (versus break even or loss on R1) by doing so. Whatever the ramp up is, it's focused on EDV and not R1 in 2023, as they look to be profitable by 2024. It also makes their statement of having enough cash on hand to start GA production in 2025 a suspect.

Earnings call on 11/9 should be interesting as analysts will surely ask about the 2023 production forecast. Given across the board delay on deliveries announced today, it raises lot of questions.

Rivians contract with Amazon is “cost plus,” meaning Amazon pays them on the cost plus a fixed percentage markup…

I’ll be curious to see if they reaffirm the 25k production goal on the earnings call. My guess is they trim their guidance a bit. Note; don’t conflate ramping production and rolling out another product (R1S). Pushing R1S ramp to 2023 is probably about streamlining end of year production to get as close to the 25k number as possible. They’re on record saying their EDV ramp was going to occur in earnest in Q3 and Q4. Ultimately, they’ve only got so much bandwidth.

They’ve got to play defensively to get the GA factory open and producing lower cost gen 2 vehicles at scale They're obviously anticipating a cash crunch at some point and are playing defensively on costs (scaling back delivery radius around service centers & towing coverage policies, among other things) and trying to drive share price for a secondary offering to raise additional capital.

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