R2 Delayed?

[Gen(R3)Xer]

When I hear first half of 2026 I think end of Q1 to allow time for any issues to be resolved. It would be surprising their standard plan was for June and they have themselves no wriggle room given how much the stock market is watching.

I think by saying first half of 2026 gives them wiggle room until the end of June. If they were going to start delivering the R2 in early 2026 then you’d probably be seeing deliveries by the end of Q1, but they didn’t say that.

Production will ramp slowly, just like all automakers releasing a new model, but especially a startup. This is Rivian’s first high-volume, affordable vehicle. They want to get things right, not rush or overproduce before working out all of the kinks. In the end it will be fine and worth the wait.

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[DuoRivian]

I think by saying first half of 2026 gives them wiggle room until the end of June. If they were going to start delivering the R2 in early 2026 then you’d probably be seeing deliveries by the end of Q1, but they didn’t say that.

Production will ramp slowly, just like all automakers releasing a new model, but especially a startup. This is Rivian’s first high-volume, affordable vehicle. They want to get things right, not rush or overproduce before working out all of the kinks. In the end it will be fine and worth the wait.

My point was they say first half which is technically until end of June but they will have a baseline plan which gets vehicles produced and sold before that date so they can encounter some issues and still hit the end of June commitment. If things are running to plan then end Q1 is an example of what could be possible. It will be what it is.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

Y’all are of course correct. Rivian only needs to activate the configurator on launch day to meet demand. But, for this type of community, I feel like they should read the room and provide specs, configurator (or at least the gawdamn colors) now.

I agree. We know they’re going to simplify things for mass production, but by how much? I’m predicting two interior colors at launch (a dark one and a light one) and then special editions down the road. I think exterior colors will be simplified as well, maybe down to 5 colors: black, white, silver, a shade of blue, and maybe launch green, again with special editions down the road.

I’d love to see Forest Green with a warm tan or brown interior.

 

[Dark-Fx]

I'm betting this won't be released until a month or so before deliveries start. Rivian received a lot of flack for delays and having people stare at their configurator for a couple years before anything shipped. I would think that instead Rivian wants a fast experience instead of being known as a company with tons of delays. We've seen pictures of all the test mules out, and Rivian is already running production testing on the new line. All of that is public knowledge at this point.

I know this thread is most likely wrong. BUT, you would think they would have launched the detailed specs page and configurator by now if R2 was releasing in the next few months.

Launch Edition R2's will all be specced the same. My only expectation is a limited choice of exterior color and limited interior color. They could easily start production on them without any knowledge of what people are going to buy.

Except they have a fairly good idea on product color mix from R1 sales. IE no more avocado omelettes.

 

[Just Passing By]

I don’t think it will be a delay so much as a slow ramp up. This is Rivian’s first high-volume affordable vehicle and they want to get it right.

Well I'm going to push back a bit on your take. Of course Rivian want to get R2 right, but that's what all the builds and testing have already been doing. What constitutes a slow ramp? What numbers would you put around that to flesh out your point?

They already produced 100's of Final Validation builds in 3Q25 in Southern California using production-intent tooling. Reportedly they are in the process of producing 100's more in 4Q25 into 1Q26 in Normal to prove out the actual production line. This is setting them up to produce 1,000's of sellable production units/mnth from the get go. The ramp will be faster and in larger numbers than R1 because of the simpler build, all the de-risking they have already done, including leveraging R1 Gen 2 s/w and because they already know how to mass produce, having done it already. So the only question is when that starts.

I think by saying first half of 2026 gives them wiggle room until the end of June. If they were going to start delivering the R2 in early 2026 then you’d probably be seeing deliveries by the end of Q1, but they didn’t say that.

Saying 1H26 avoids them getting sued by shareholders if they slip for some unforeseen reason. It doesn't mean they don't plan and haven't always planned to start sellable production units earlier or even much earlier.

Also specs and pricing haven’t been released for the launch edition, there’s no configurator on the website, and people with reservations (myself included) haven’t been contacted yet.

The configurator not being public yet is irrelevant for the initial months of production since Rivian won't be building to order. The Rivian configurator for the full production R1 is simple with few options or accessories, no reason to suppose R2, especially when initially offered will be any more complex and will likely be much simpler, starting with just the Dual Motor variant. I'll be amazed if potential customers will be unable to determine what they do or do not want to order the day the configurator along with specs and pricing are published. It just isn't that complicated because there aren't many options.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

Launch Edition R2's will all be specced the same. My only expectation is a limited choice of exterior color and limited interior color. They could easily start production on them without any knowledge of what people are going to buy.

Except they have a fairly good idea on product color mix from R1T sales. IE no more avocado omelettes.

Avocado omelettes!!! How dare you sir. Just kidding.

Seems like Compass Yellow was the only color they discontinued and that was supposedly because it was really hard to color match. I love that color though. It’s Rivian Yellow to me. The color of the logo, the color of the brake calipers, etc.

I get why they’d stick to safer colors at first. It’s boring, but it makes sense. I guess that’s what wraps and special editions are for.

 

[sparked]

I'm curious, why do you (and others apparently) think this time-frame and for some even later volume production will eventuate? Rivian are already running R2 vehicles through the Normal production line. RJ just posted video about them using automated lines for hanging doors, hood and lift gate. What causes a 6-9 month delay or longer before production vehicles will be available for customers in volume? What could they possibly be doing that would necessitate taking all that time given where they are today and the desire/requirement to ramp as early as is practical?

R2 will have a slow ramp in 2026 because Rivian has never mass-produced a vehicle at this scale. The entire global supply chain has to ramp in sync and arrive on time.

There are also limitations on stockpiling parts at Rivian or suppliers since space isn't infinite. A delay or defect in even one small component like a headlight assembly can cause a cascade of delays. Some of which won't show up until they scale production from the supplier or even locally at the Rivian factory.

Rivian itself has to scale labor, add shifts, and refine processes with high quality. Paint, panel gaps, fit and finish, etc get affected as they ramp up.

 

[Just Passing By]

R2 will have a slow ramp in 2026 because Rivian has never mass-produced a vehicle at this scale. The entire global supply chain has to ramp in sync and arrive on time.

There are also limitations on stockpiling parts at Rivian or suppliers since space isn't infinite. A delay or defect in even one small component like a headlight assembly can cause a cascade of delays. Some of which won't show up until they scale production from the supplier or even locally at the Rivian factory.

Rivian itself has to scale labor, add shifts, and refine processes with high quality. Paint, panel gaps, fit and finish, etc get affected as they ramp up.

So what is a slow ramp from your perspective? What does that look like in monthly numbers produced? Perhaps our definitions of production ramp are different? Would 3k in 2Q, 7k in 3Q and 15k in 4Q be a slow or fast ramp, bearing in mind Rivian's production rate of vehicles has been as high as 17k per quarter back in 2023? They are equipped for much higher monthly production in Normal now. What suggests they haven't explicitly planned with suppliers for a rapid ramp including with the supplier park in Normal scheduled to be finished in 2026?

There is a lot of hand waving subjective observation in the comments about how Rivian will have to ramp slowly but little to substantiate it and no acknowledgement of all the preparation they have publicly talked about, both with the vehicle and with the manufacturing plant. In general, people seem to continually underestimate Rivian's ability to execute.

As an illustration, Rivian ramped production of R1 during the COVID pandemic as a new company with no prior history of production and no supplier relationship history either, during major automotive and wider industry supply chain issues, and yet they managed their way through that. A veritable baptism of fire, which they have used the learning from to select and set up supply lines for the R2 ramp. RJ has said as much in many interviews.

There is nothing new in Rivian having to plan for component supply and ramping the labor force to support production, why do you assume there is?

 

[sparked]

So what is a slow ramp from your perspective? What does that look like in monthly numbers produced? Perhaps our definitions of production ramp are different? Would 3k in 2Q, 7k in 3Q and 15k in 4Q be a slow or fast ramp, bearing in mind Rivian's production rate of vehicles has been as high as 17k per quarter back in 2023? They are equipped for much higher monthly production in Normal now. What suggests they haven't explicitly planned with suppliers for a rapid ramp including with the supplier park in Normal scheduled to be finished in 2026?

A total of 25k R2s built in 2026 would be a reasonable and conservative expectation. The order backlog is so long there are customers that are probably going to be pretty unhappy with that though. From a customer perspective, the higher production rates in early 2027 could be better situation to start satisfying demand.

Even saying that, there are a lot of unknowns. Depending on the quality of the ramp up, they could exceed that 25k for 2026. It's hard to extrapolate since we don't even know what month production cars are coming off the line. Let's see the quality of R2s getting into customers hands and the feedback. We should have a lot better idea then.

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

Most Likely scenario even before your rumor. (my assumption )

H1 20226 - Employee and Social Media Influencer delivery that will full fill delivery commitment promised to wall street.
Q3 - Couple customer deliveries
Q4 - Couple more deliveries

Q1+ 2027 - Production ramp up
2028 - GA comes online , Mass production R2
Mid/late 2029 Start R3 preproduction

This has some pretty bad delays according to your timeline as R3 was said to be in production 2028 and you're say they won't do preproduction until a year and a half later. Also, you seem to be assuming they won't utilize the 125,000 unit space at Normal during the 2027 year and you are insinuating they won't really get to people until a year and a half later. I don't think R3 will be delayed until 2030 (as your saying preproduction in 2029). Just seems super pessimistic.

 

[DuoRivian]

This has some pretty bad delays according to your timeline as R3 was said to be in production 2028 and you're say they won't do preproduction until a year and a half later. Also, you seem to be assuming they won't utilize the 125,000 unit space at Normal during the 2027 year and you are insinuating they won't really get to people until a year and a half later. I don't think R3 will be delayed until 2030 (as your saying preproduction in 2029). Just seems super pessimistic.

Yes several people on here are super pessimistic and when their projections don’t come true they will just move onto being pessimistic about something else.
Rivian will stay production and get vehicles into customers hands before June. Rivian are already building some and have experience with a more complex vehicle, so I would expect more than 25k in 2026. We will see.

 

[captainjp]

We’re currently in the middle of the “slow ramp up”, whatever the hell that is.

 

[narmstrong79]

This has some pretty bad delays according to your timeline as R3 was said to be in production 2028 and you're say they won't do preproduction until a year and a half later. Also, you seem to be assuming they won't utilize the 125,000 unit space at Normal during the 2027 year and you are insinuating they won't really get to people until a year and a half later. I don't think R3 will be delayed until 2030 (as your saying preproduction in 2029). Just seems super pessimistic.

Let's revisit this in 6 months, and see where we're at.

R3 isn't being made in Normal, and GA won't even be online until 2028, and will be needed for R2 volume, unless sales don't go the way we all expect and that means death. At best the R2 deliveries are better than my estimate. But I'm still keeping R3 in our near 2029

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

Let's revisit this in 6 months, and see where we're at.

R3 isn't being made in Normal, and GA won't even be online until 2028, and will be needed for R2 volume, unless sales don't go the way we all expect and that means death. At best the R2 deliveries are better than my estimate. But I'm still keeping R3 in our near 2029

You won't be able to tell in 6 months. Let's say worst case scenario and they start deliveries in June, beginning their slow ramp up, Rivian will be entirely focused on R2. R3 news will likely not be brought up or focused on in 6 months. Not to mention, the ones releasing in June will not be their latest software/Lidar vehicles, that will be in the later half of 2026. I think this is where the actual ramp up will start, using the time from non-Lidar R2 to the release of Lidar R2 to force lower demand and allow the slower ramp up and work out problems prior to the car most people will actually want. I do not think the R3 will be focused on until 2027 or mid 2027 when they start to push the R3 into the forefront of the conversation.

 

[JasonK]

I too expect a Slow ramp from Rivian on the R2. I think I even seen a interview with someone from Rivian that mentioned a slow ramp. I would guess 25K to 30K in 2026 depending on how smooth the ramp up goes. As far as their claim that there is 100's of R2s already built, I do not believe this. I think that is a huge exaggeration. We would be seeing pics of them in the wild much more often if this was true.

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