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Rivian May Be Much Closer to FSD Than You Think

Donald Stanfield

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Wasn't it just a couple of years ago that Rivian said it wasn't pursuing FSD?

Did they make a (really late) about-face, or have they been "secretly" focusing on it while publicly saying otherwise all this time?
I think RJ was trying to distance himself from Tesla and the term FSD. He has said repeatedly that the plan was always to expand Rivian’s ADAS capabilities but he only wanted to do fully autonomous if he could do it safely unlike Tesla who full sends it and lets their drivers play crash test dummy to advance their software.
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mpshizzle

mpshizzle

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Full autonomy is a red herring, in my opinion.

Let's take the semi-autonomous cannonball run records as an example. The Comma achieved a 99.125% hands-free run, Tesla FSD achieved a 98.69%. Whatever Comma may lack, when you are talking about what it's able to achieve especially at the price points involved, it really does beg the question how much these other services (FSD, RAP+) are really worth in terms of subscription prices.

To me, I don't think I could justify something like FSD at $99 a month - even if they managed a 100% hands free drive. That extra .875% just isn't worth the extra expenditure.
Ultimately, they're different products meant for different people and different goals. Tesla and rivian are targeting full autonomy in all situations. On the highway, all of the systems perform similarly enough that if that is your priority and only goal you're absolutely right! There's absolutely no reason to be paying an extra monthly subscription for that. The real differentiator is City driving. This is where Tesla FSD is unparalleled by any other system, and that is what people pay the fee for. And many, many do. But that sort of autonomy is not important for everyone, and if you're not in that camp, then comma is 100% the way to go.

Basically what I'm getting at here, is comparing comma and Tesla FSD is comparing apples to oranges. They're just different systems with different goals. So comparing prices doesn't really mean much. Kind of like comparing the price of an iPhone and an iPad. Sure, they have a lot of similarities and can do a lot of the same things, but ultimately they're different products made for different purposes
 
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gerrylum

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Ultimately, they're different products meant for different people and different goals. Tesla and rivian are targeting full autonomy in all situations. On the highway, all of the systems perform similarly enough that if that is your priority and only goal you're absolutely right! There's absolutely no reason to be paying an extra monthly subscription for that. The real differentiator is City driving. This is where Tesla FSD is unparalleled by any other system, and that is what people pay the fee for. And many, many do. But that sort of autonomy is not important for everyone, and if you're not in that camp, then comma is 100% the way to go.
Again, I think this is hyperbole.

I'm really not here to argue which system is better than the other, except in the sense to talk about the value these systems provide and how they should be priced, but I do want to point out the Comma is a very capable hands-free city driver as well, with features like MADS and Dynamic Experimental Control.

Sure, FSD is a *better* system for city driving, I admit that without hesitation. My point is it's not 8x the price better. In my opinion.
 

TexasBob

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But the price is insane. If I can do a drive like Dallas to Houston 98% hands-free and only pay a one-time $999 for a Comma 3X, I can't see why I would ever pay a $99/month subscription for something like FSD.
For most people, $25,000 over the life of a car is an idiotic cost for a driving assistant. So is $8,000.

Ultimately, they're different products meant for different people and different goals. Tesla and rivian are targeting full autonomy in all situations. On the highway, all of the systems perform similarly enough that if that is your priority and only goal you're absolutely right! There's absolutely no reason to be paying an extra monthly subscription for that. The real differentiator is City driving. This is where Tesla FSD is unparalleled by any other system, and that is what people pay the fee for. And many, many do. But that sort of autonomy is not important for everyone, and if you're not in that camp, then comma is 100% the way to go.
Tesla is a second tier L2 system with a third tier chipset. That is a simple fact verified by Tesla itself. The list of companies that perform better than Tesla is extremely long and the NVIDIA video posted above has a pretty good list. The only difference is that Tesla put is beta software and under-powered hardware into the public in an unrestricted model (that has killed more than a dozen and injured 50). Again, Tesla has zero vehicles running zero miles of autonomous driving. There are several other comapnies actually operating autonomous vehicles on public roads.
 

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In the medium/long run it won’t matter. I think it’s a mistake car OEMs will be able to monetize driving assistance software.

If anything, level 4/5 driving will make car ownership obsolete for many people.

Waymo will likely soon provide a couple hundred dollars/mo subscription for 1,000 mile/mo of travel. That will cover the cost of energy, wear/tear, insurance, etc. And the more people who subscribe will make it cheaper for everyone.

Car OEMs like Rivian will have a tough sell if services like Waymo take off.

Waymo is now allowed to operate in greater Bay Area, LA, and San Diego.

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You missed Phoenix, they have been here for a long time.
 

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azbill

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The Waymo vehicles do a darn good job of driving themselves in most California weather conditions. Let's see, in the new Gen 6 cars that's:

13 cameras, four lidar sensors including the big 360 lidar on top, six radar sensors, and a bunch of microphones as well. And that's the brand new cars, down from even more cameras and lidar in Gen 5.

That, apparently, is what it takes to do self-driving properly. So unless there is a <insert brand here> vehicle for sale that at least comes close to that sensor suite, I think I'll stick to Waymo for the next few years.
GM is adding Lidar in 2028.
 

gerrylum

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GM is adding Lidar in 2028.
We'll see if that ends up panning out. Volvo just said it's going to start removing LIDAR from their EX90s and ES90s as it just ended their relationship with Luminar. I have a suspicion that, while it sounds good on paper, there just isn't an ROI that makes it make sense to keep including it on the cars.
 

therealcmj

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Volvo just said it's going to start removing LIDAR from their EX90s and ES90s as it just ended their relationship with Luminar.
To be accurate they only said they’re cutting ties with Luminar. That doesn’t mean they’re dropping LIDAR forever and altogether.
 

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Chiming in again, while I believe FSD is worth $99/mo to many today, I also believe this price should and will come down significantly. I don't think autonomy is important from a margin perspective, I think it's important from a long term relevance perspective. The price is a red herring right now in my opinion.

If your car can make money for you as a taxi instead of just being parked, I would assume there will be a tiered pricing scheme to enable this and I am highly skeptical individuals will opt for this, it will be dominated by existing networks (Uber, Waymo, etc).

The price of autonomy will be competed away as it becomes a standard feature on all cars.
 

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We'll see if that ends up panning out. Volvo just said it's going to start removing LIDAR from their EX90s and ES90s as it just ended their relationship with Luminar. I have a suspicion that, while it sounds good on paper, there just isn't an ROI that makes it make sense to keep including it on the cars.
Rivian stopped shipping cabin cameras in gen1 vehicles but brought it back in gen2 in a better position and it's actually functional.

There's a lot of reasons Volvo could be looking to drop Luminar but not LiDAR in general-- It's just that there isn't really many commercially available options. Waymo is probably the biggest active player in the vehicle LIDAR space, and they make their own.
 

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TexasBob

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We'll see if that ends up panning out. Volvo just said it's going to start removing LIDAR from their EX90s and ES90s as it just ended their relationship with Luminar. I have a suspicion that, while it sounds good on paper, there just isn't an ROI that makes it make sense to keep including it on the cars.
Volvos parent company, Zhejiang Geely, is still all in on LiDAR with the new Zeekr 9x having 5 LiDAR units.

The leading companies are (1) including LiDAR (2) using NVIDIA Thor chips (3) including the system subscription free with the vehicle (BYD, Geely). Rivian missing on 3 of 3 at the moment.
 

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But the price is insane. If I can do a drive like Dallas to Houston 98% hands-free and only pay a one-time $999 for a Comma 3X, I can't see why I would ever pay a $99/month subscription for something like FSD.
Agree with you and why Comma is in my Rivians but most people aren't crazy like us and willing to install, have some growing pains, and learn with the system. They want from the factory which Tesla has delivered, finally. Would never pay the $8k but for the 2 months a year I need it, it is worth $200 for the year.
 

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I like driving as much as the next guy, but for long highway drives I love a good ADAS. I have tried Tesla FSD recently and it's quite amazing, even as a level 2 ADAS. That being said, I am perfectly happy with the current gen2 driving aid. Good lane keeping and auto lane change is pretty much all I care about. I will spring for a level 4 ADAS that can drive me places autonomously while I take a nap, but that's some years away.

I would add this: if I had to commute in crappy traffic every day like I used to, I would buy a Tesla with FSD to make it tolerable.
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