RIVIAN STOCK

[trez63]

Ford sold 8%. Not exactly dumping it all out. Today is just classic market psychology combined with overall negative sentiment, maybe a flood of sellers with expiring lockups, and some overall worrying about what happens after earnings get announced. People get in a frenzy to go all in above $150 then don’t know to buy when the stock is $20. If you’ve been trading for a while you’re taking some gains along the way rather than pledging “faith” in the company. I wonder how many of those people are now sitting on losses rather than loading up at a discount.

i believe Ford owned 8% of RIVIAN and they sold all their holdings. At least that what my Morgan Stanley advisor told me today.
it seems that you’re saying they sold only 8% of their shares I. RIVIAN which is very different. Are you certain of this? I haven’t had time to do my own fact finding. That’s what I pay MS for … but if you know better please let me know. Thanks

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[E.S.]

i believe Ford owned 8% of RIVIAN and they sold all their holdings. At least that what my Morgan Stanley advisor told me today.

Your advisor misinformed you. Ford sold 8 million of its 102 million shares (7.8% of their total shares). Prior today, they had an overall 12% claim on Rivian's stakes.

 

[trez63]

Your advisor misinformed you. Ford sold 8 million of its 102 million shares (7.8% of their total shares). Prior today, they had an overall 12% claim on Rivian's stakes.

Awesome. Thank you.

 

[BigE]

i believe Ford owned 8% of RIVIAN and they sold all their holdings. At least that what my Morgan Stanley advisor told me today.
it seems that you’re saying they sold only 8% of their shares I. RIVIAN which is very different. Are you certain of this? I haven’t had time to do my own fact finding. That’s what I pay MS for … but if you know better please let me know. Thanks

You may want to consider getting a new advisor.

 

[trez63]

You may want to consider getting a new advisor.

They've done better than 26% for me nearly every year I've been with them. I'm not going to fire them over a trivial fact that I can check.

 

[Jumacao]

Question for you intellectuals: did Ford *actually* sell their shares yet? I thought the news yesterday was that they were planning on unloading 8%, not that they'd done it yet. But I'm seeing conflicting headlines now.

 

[Dirty_B]

i believe Ford owned 8% of RIVIAN and they sold all their holdings. At least that what my Morgan Stanley advisor told me today.
it seems that you’re saying they sold only 8% of their shares I. RIVIAN which is very different. Are you certain of this? I haven’t had time to do my own fact finding. That’s what I pay MS for … but if you know better please let me know. Thanks

If MS told you that, you need to find a new advisor...one maybe that can, dare I say...read and is informed of facts?
Dirty_B

 

[Dirty_B]

Question for you intellectuals: did Ford *actually* sell their shares yet? I thought the news yesterday was that they were planning on unloading 8%, not that they'd done it yet. But I'm seeing conflicting headlines now.

You'll never know till next quarters reports. Reporting says they're done - per Faber on CNBC.
Dirty_B

 

[NashvilleR1S]

If it keeps falling, and I keep buying more shares, eventually I'll own Rivian and get my R1S sooner. Thats how it works right?

 

[Max]

If it keeps falling, and I keep buying more shares, eventually I'll own Rivian and get my R1S sooner. Thats how it works right?

At that point it will be all your fault.

So far It does feel like Rivian has had more bottoms than number of R1Ss coming off the line. Hopfully that will change s00n.

 

[junkanoo]

Fair point, but if someone can provide a consistent low-profit margin business... most people believe it does make sense as the terms is profit -- scale and the profit scales. We don't actually know the profit margin of Rivian's trucks, have you read any good estimates? They're on the higher/luxury end of the spectrum and historically that has more margin than lower costing vehicles.

I'd imagine that's why the business model is shifting towards subscriptions and OTA updates they can roll into cars to keep the profits coming well after a car is sold.

I'm not sure how anyone could have good estimates on the profit margin of Rivian's trucks when they're bleeding money.

While the auto business is absolutely moving to OTA updates ... I am skeptical that they will ever be able to monetize those updates. If Apple can't do it how the heck would Rivian be able to? Meanwhile, those updates make for a lot of happy campers getting their Apple Watch and iPhone updates along with small incremental improvements that come along with it. That allows Apple to keep customers (including me) in their ecosystem, providing them a huge market advantage. Rivian has no chance of that same benefit.

I do agree that Rivian needs to remain in the higher end of the car business. However, Rivian (at least outwardly) is still drinking the lemonade that producing cheaper cars will allow them to get to some great mass-production level and the potential to take on anyone in the industry. Those odds are far greater than Rich Strike winning the Derby - but not impossible.

 

[Eticket99]

I'm not sure how anyone could have good estimates on the profit margin of Rivian's trucks when they're bleeding money.

While the auto business is absolutely moving to OTA updates ... I am skeptical that they will ever be able to monetize those updates. If Apple can't do it how the heck would Rivian be able to? Meanwhile, those updates make for a lot of happy campers getting their Apple Watch and iPhone updates along with small incremental improvements that come along with it. That allows Apple to keep customers (including me) in their ecosystem, providing them a huge market advantage. Rivian has no chance of that same benefit.

I do agree that Rivian needs to remain in the higher end of the car business. However, Rivian (at least outwardly) is still drinking the lemonade that producing cheaper cars will allow them to get to some great mass-production level and the potential to take on anyone in the industry. Those odds are far greater than Rich Strike winning the Derby - but not impossible.

That's the innovation part, if I could list out the opportunities I wouldn't have my day job. But..... look to Tesla's model for FSD (yes that mythical creature, that still gets some people to spend $$ on it) and their strategy to produce cars with batteries with software limited range. These cars are computers on wheels, and while incremental OS updates from Apple are free... their app store and all that goes with it is a money maker.

That's my point, we don't know their profit margin on the R1T and R1S.. and what it is today will not be what it is tomorrow. Tooling, building, etc all takes time and substantial cap ex, car industry is a relatively low margin business though... believe avg around 7.5% and Tesla/Direct to consumer cars a little higher around 10-13? Don't hold me to those numbers, forgot where I read that. But a company with billions of cash is finally valued at something you can start to do the math and project the accuracy of the valuation where as before it was a no brainer that it was over valued.

 

[IPTV65]

Are folks on here(whom I assume are reservation holders) equally frantic about whether to keep their reservation and follow through with their purchase?

IF the stock is that bad a long term investment AND the company has no future....who in their right mind would buy an $85K vehicle from them? Seriously...that would be the dumbest purchase ever!

We need these cars to last a while and that takes a company to back it. As someone else said it's not just about parts availability these days. It's about the Software and services. I guess one option is Rivian could turn into the largest open source vehicle SW project ever. Not sure Amazon will let that happen.

BTW FWIW I agree that the "at what price point to buy the stock" discussion is just good sound investment strategy. It's a bumpy ride for sure.

 

[Max]

While the auto business is absolutely moving to OTA updates ... I am skeptical that they will ever be able to monetize those updates. If Apple can't do it how the heck would Rivian be able to? Meanwhile, those updates make for a lot of happy campers getting their Apple Watch and iPhone updates along with small incremental improvements that come along with it. That allows Apple to keep customers (including me) in their ecosystem, providing them a huge market advantage. Rivian has no chance of that same benefit.

Rivian needs to get as many cars out there as fast as they can. The more legitimate of a company they are the more bargaining power they will have with suppliers and with potential business partners that may be another source of income. Who knows, they already may be getting a cut for every 21" Pirelli sold. If they do, those incomes may start to roll in after a few years.

OTA allowed Rivian to release R1T and R1S before they are ready and collect info. Facebook is a crappy products no one likes but everyone uses. It is all about numbers. Once you get the numbers, profitability will come. That is why RJ went back to original pricing. Once they flood the roads with Rivians, they can charge a big business to put their app on your screen or a restaurant to pop up their add when you get close or a whole lot of other things they can't think of right now but will be able to take advantage of using OTA. They can sell the product (which is often us) much better down the road using adjustments to the software even if they may lack the foresight to know how today. At this point all they need to concentrate on is getting R1s out and make sure they run. This is a long game.

 

[Max]

Are folks on here(whom I assume are reservation holders) equally frantic about whether to keep their reservation and follow through with their purchase?

IF the stock is that bad a long term investment AND the company has no future....who in their right mind would buy an $85K vehicle from them? Seriously...that would be the dumbest purchase ever!

We need these cars to last a while and that takes a company to back it. As someone else said it's not just about parts availability these days. It's about the Software and services. I guess one option is Rivian could turn into the largest open source vehicle SW project ever. Not sure Amazon will let that happen.

BTW FWIW I agree that the "at what price point to buy the stock" discussion is just good sound investment strategy. It's a bumpy ride for sure.

Rivian is already selling cars that have received great reviews. If there is a take over, the new owner will likely keep producing the cars. They may have to make it a leaner business to make it profitable. there were 9000 DeLoreans made. If we pass that many R1s, we will be OK.

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