RJ: R2 order conversion rate is "much higher" than internal expectations

[NinjaWrap]

FSD was cheap originally then went up to $8k and now is only monthly

Cheapest was $6000 for about a month (I got it in my 3P right after that for $7000). Then paid $10k in Model Y which I later transferred to Cybertruck. It went all the way up to $15k which is just stupid before coming back down.

I have shown the math before but a lower price actually increases overall revenue due to higher take rate.

Sponsored

 

[Eric9610]

Cheapest was $6000 for about a month (I got it in my 3P right after that for $7000). Then paid $10k in Model Y which I later transferred to Cybertruck. It went all the way up to $15k which is just stupid before coming back down.

I have shown the math before but a lower price actually increases overall revenue due to higher take rate.

In 2016 it was 3k...

 

[kanefsky]

In 2016 it was 3k...

a $3000 add-on to the required $5000 "enhanced autopilot" option.

 

[Eric9610]

a $3000 add-on to the required $5000 "enhanced autopilot" option.

wrong... Model S and X it was a straight 3k for FSD. one could argue that those people that paid the money never saw FSD, but that a different story... LOL

 

[kanefsky]

wrong... Model S and X it was a straight 3k for FSD. one could argue that those people that paid the money never saw FSD, but that a different story... LOL

A screenshot from my own Model S order:

Also see https://www.notateslaapp.com/tesla-reference/958/tesla-fsd-price-increase-history:

Before 2019 FSD was an add-on that required also buying Enhanced Autopilot. Enhanced Autopilot cost $5,000 and FSD was a $3,000 option on top of that if ordered with the vehicle. If you ordered FSD after taking delivery then it cost $4,000, which later went up to $5,000.​

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

More frustrated that there were no numbers. What was the internal expectations. What is the actual numbers?

 

[Mos Eisley]

More frustrated that there were no numbers. What was the internal expectations. What is the actual numbers?

Why is that frustrating to you? It's just inside baseball.

But I'll play along and say... 11. 11 was their internal estimate.

 

[EVtowing]

wrong... Model S and X it was a straight 3k for FSD. one could argue that those people that paid the money never saw FSD, but that a different story... LOL

In early 2017 I could have purchased FSD for that price when I bought my Model X. I decided not to because there was no indication that Tesla’s marketing promise would be reality any time soon. It turned out I was correct, and almost a decade later Tesla still has not delivered L4/5 level functionality, though they have made significant progress towards that goal.

My Model X has Enhanced Auto Pilot and the V2.5 hardware which of course is completely incapable of supporting FSD at any level despite Tesla’s 2017 promise that it would be able to. The V3.0 cars cannot support FSD. Whether the V4.0 cars will be able to support L4/5 is unknown. I suspect that L4/5 is not possible with a cameras only system.

When I buy an R2 in 2027 I expect it to be a RAP1/LIDAR vehicle and hope that will eventually enable L4/5 capability but I’ll be surprised if that is achieved as soon as RJ has indicated.

 

[Marjen]

Also everyone assumes that Autonomy+ will stay at $2,500. I suspect it goes up with the RAP1 to $3,500 or even $4,500.

I am not sure why everyone thinks prices will go up with RAP1 + Lidar. I am sure that is already factored in to their pricing. I have seen RJ mention in multiple interviews the cost for lidar is low $100s. And with regards to RAP1 they are creating the hardware for many reasons but one is probably to reduce cost over the current 3rd party computers. Nvidia chips are not cheap with demand so high, they are most likely breaking even or saving money by creating their own computers. So it's crazy to think the price is going to immediately go up by thousands of dollars. Especially since pricing has already been announced for premium and standard trims all of which will contain the new hardware.

 

[NinjaWrap]

In 2016 it was 3k...

That was on top of $5000 Autopilot so total out the door was $8000. I paid $5000 for Autopilot on my 2018 Model 3 and then added FSD on top for $2000, so $7000 for the whole package.

 

[SwampNut]

Why is that frustrating to you? It's just inside baseball.

Because RJ lies or makes things up. “We investigated ourselves and found out we were right.”

 

[Mos Eisley]

I am not sure why everyone thinks prices will go up with RAP1 + Lidar. I am sure that is already factored in to their pricing. I have seen RJ mention in multiple interviews the cost for lidar is low $100s. And with regards to RAP1 they are creating the hardware for many reasons but one is probably to reduce cost over the current 3rd party computers. Nvidia chips are not cheap with demand so high, they are most likely breaking even or saving money by creating their own computers. So it's crazy to think the price is going to immediately go up by thousands of dollars. Especially since pricing has already been announced for premium and standard trims all of which will contain the new hardware.

If it requires autonomy + it’ll cost an extra $2500

 

[savethemanual]

RJ: Hey world, the R2 matches the efficiency of the MY. World: Oh, ok that's awesome! Lets see some 3rd party testing about that. Yikes.

RJ: Hey world, the R2 pre-order conversion rate is higher than we expected here at Rivian. World: Oh, ok. Hmmmm.

 

[rfkxyz]

Pretty much all new car launches “exceed expectations” in some way - about as credible as early (press release) reviews.

That said, the early #’s look encouraging.

Sponsored