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Speculation: R2R Maybe Not the First R2 Model

dleewla

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if they are smart they will build a two row SUV around the size of RAV4, CRV, CX-5, Model Y, Mustang Mach-e. thats the size consumers want.

if not an SUV then a crossover/hatchback/wagon would also be a great target segment that lines up with the Rivian ethos, though TAM would be smaller than the SUV.

i could see them building a compact truck like the Maverick because that vehicle proved consumers want that size. there's going to be a rush of ICE competitors to the Maverick though in the next 1-2 years but probably not a lot of BEV trucks that size so might be worth going after.
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ironpig

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if they are smart they will build a two row SUV around the size of RAV4, CRV, CX-5, Model Y, Mustang Mach-e. thats the size consumers want.

if not an SUV then a crossover/hatchback/wagon would also be a great target segment that lines up with the Rivian ethos, though TAM would be smaller than the SUV.

i could see them building a compact truck like the Maverick because that vehicle proved consumers want that size. there's going to be a rush of ICE competitors to the Maverick though in the next 1-2 years but probably not a lot of BEV trucks that size so might be worth going after.
So many of us would love a small pickup or 2 row SUV and I'm sure eventually they will build those. Something like the vaporware Alpha Wolf concept.

The problem is profit margin. I'm not sure they can build one anytime soon and make any money on it. They currently are having a hard time making any money on more luxury priced vehicles where the margins should be better.
 

the long way downunder

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if they are smart they will build a two row SUV around the size of RAV4, CRV, CX-5, Model Y, Mustang Mach-e. thats the size consumers want.

if not an SUV then a crossover/hatchback/wagon would also be a great target segment that lines up with the Rivian ethos, though TAM would be smaller than the SUV.

i could see them building a compact truck like the Maverick because that vehicle proved consumers want that size. there's going to be a rush of ICE competitors to the Maverick though in the next 1-2 years but probably not a lot of BEV trucks that size so might be worth going after.
Right on both counts:
A Rivian Model Y (R2S) is the only way to go.
A Rivian Maverick (R2T) would be a slam dunk if they can deliver at the Maverick price.

If Rivian builds anything other than a copy-paste of the Model Y, they're nuts.
Tesla has proven the winning product offering to be more the most popular vehicle (Toyota.)
They had a shot at building an F-150 (the most popular vehicle.)
I don't think Rivian has shown the capacity to execute since 2020 to give investors confidence that the R2T is something they can make happen.
They really need a lot more efficient operation to hit the R2T price point.

As for the R2S, anyone dumb enough to build an EV that's not a Model 3 or Model Y direct competitor is headed to an early grave.

I think they could get away with a Rivian Model Y that's two row, but I'm not sure it's worth the gamble. It's surely not a bank breaker to build a three-throw and offer it as a two-row then see how the market behaves.

In short, Rivian has one turnaround jump shot, the R2. Pun intended. If they don't drain it, I don't think they get a rebound, it's game over, they'll be sold for scrap (and some very tasty intellectual property) and the EDV will be spun off as a separate business, perhaps wholly owned by Amazon.


sidenote on product management:​
For the Y, a lot of early hype and interest was in a 3-row, only to find most orders are the 2-row, but there's a deep catacomb of interconnecting rabbit holes in product planning that connects the availability of the 3-row with the purchase of the 2-row.​
If the 3-row doesn't exist, the prospective customer splashes out of the sales funnel into a competitor's offering of a 3-row and then that prospect goes ahead and buys the 2–row.​
It's just the nature of consumerism and the nature of human decision making … offering a red car helps sell a lot of white and black cars … I'm not sure there's ever been a conclusive study to discover how or why this works … offering a "halo" or "flagship" … offering a big V8 results in most buyers getting the economical V6 but if you don't have the V8, for some reason, there's a demographic of customers that will go to a different vehicle.​
Dodge has persevered with the extreme case of this behavior by consistently offering high-powered variants. As a 3rd place or 4th place finisher, they have to try something different, so it's not ridiculous, it's just so far been unsuccessful, though their RAM1500 product was arguably the innovator a few years ago, I don't think it's TRX variant revived its aging product to bring in new customers.​
 

zipzag

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The model Y isn't an SUV. Rivian will likely a RAV4 competitor.

Rivian is likely a couple years too late. Most large manufacturers are rushing to fill the obvious RAV4 to Explorer SUV gap left by Tesla.

The bold move for Rivian would be a mini van as the first R2. Whatever model Rivian chooses will have a direct competitor but VW will likely to continue to execute poorly.
 

the long way downunder

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The model Y isn't an SUV. Rivian will likely a RAV4 competitor.

Rivian is likely a couple years too late. Most large manufacturers are rushing to fill the obvious RAV4 to Explorer SUV gap left by Tesla.

The bold move for Rivian would be a mini van as the first R2. Whatever model Rivian chooses will have a direct competitor but VW will likely to continue to execute poorly.
The market and even the tax office consider the Model Y an "SUV" (it's at best a crossover, or what used to be a called a hatchback or "five door.")

Ford's already shown their idea of the next Explorer EV in the Europe market, it's smaller … about the size of … the Model Y.

A minivan would have been a bold move in 2000 at their peak market … now it's an unloved "no choice" for people with 3 or more kids, docs, suburban life, soccer mom, etc. Easiest vehicle type to sell, hardest to find a customer.

The "advantage" (cough) of a minivan platform would be offering an adventure van and Rivian already has the EDV, so presumably the next step for the EDV (pretty much the only next step, if the EDV survives the mismanagement of Rivian) is a people mover family of vehicles (shuttle vans, commuter vans, city bus routes, school buses, etc.)

There are so many RAV4 competitors (like the Model Y, but on a smaller scale) and brands like Subaru that focus on that market, that's a tough segment. It certainly fits the Rivian brand (what would be called "soft roader" buyers … off-road, but not far off road, more likely parked outside REI or at an urban sporting destination (mountain biking, surfing) and used as a cheap commuter vehicle in cities with terrible roads and small parking spaces, not the hard core Jeep market with suspension lifts and 37 - 40 inch tires.

For detail design cues, the R1 is modeled closely on the Range Rover, so the R2 will be from the middle of the Land Rover family, the Evoque. Still squared off, but with elan, still very capable off-road, but rarely far from a upmarket consumer mall.

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AdamsFan1983

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Yea. Agree with the consensus here: The rivian product roadmap IMHO, while vague, is still generally understood at the very broad level.

My sense is the R2 platform out of Georgia will lead with a smaller/midsize suv variant that can be produced profitably at scale for a larger audience. I.e. a Model Y/3 that has been given the Rivian marketing/design studio treatment. Thats the moonshot because it gives financial freedom to go onto other things. I expect one model on a common R2 platform to begin with followed by a second R2 model later.

Once things are going in Georgia, they’ll retool in Normal for the refreshed designs on the R1T and R1S prominently featuring 800v hv battery architectures which overall better specs on energy densities and overall weights; all’s hole driving manufacturing simplicity to drive down production costs.
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