The Max Pack Will Most Likely Be Canceled - IMO

[Dukecj]

The Max Pack will most likely be canceled for the following reasons:

1. Cost: It will be too expensive to produce
2. Most consumers will not need 400 miles of range.
3. A 180 to 200 KWH battery is not environmentally friendly (Hummer EV)
4. Rivian will lose money for their shareholders for every MAX Pack produced.
5. Manufacturing the Max Pack will limit the production of the Large Pack and Standard Pack (i.e., for every 10 Max Packs, 15 Large Packs can be produced which will be even more with the Standard Pack.
6. Production will begin to focus on the smaller Standard Pack for faster production and greater economies of scale.

Reasoning:

Max Pack preorder holders that switched to the Large Pack received a Rivian Guide and a PBA. I ordered my Rivian 28 February 2022, and I was assigned a Rivian Guide within a week of switching. This strategy allows Rivian to lock your preorder in, and any changes must be made through your guide. In addition, any changes can delay your delivery in accordance with the PBA.

I was assigned a guide 16 May 2022, and I was told my R1T would be delivered two months ago. Now I am being told I will get an updated delivery date by the end of summer because they are now prioritizing early preorder holders (which they should have from the beginning). There are many others in this same position. However, I don’t expect to get my Rivian until sometime next year.

I knew when I got the unexpected Guide assignment that there was a strategy at play. They called it the "Rivian lottery." I believe the goal is to lower demand for the Max Pack by seemingly rewarding a few customers that switched with an early delivery. This will motivate more customers to switch if they believe this will speed up delivery. Once they get demand for the Max Pack is at a sufficiently low level, they will cancel it due to "lack of demand."

If demand is not at a sufficiently low level, they will announce a long delay and offer Max Pack preorder holders an opportunity to switch to the Large Pack for earlier delivery (prioritizing the earliest preorder holders). I suspect the only reason Rivian has not canceled the Max Pack already is that they have not reached a low enough level of demand that will minimize consumer fallout. Expect an announcement over the next three months.


Furthermore, with production being the main priority there is no way Rivian will divert limited battery supplies to produce a 180 - 200 KWH Max Pack. In other words, for every 10 Max Packs they can produce >15 Large Packs, and even more Standard Packs. For this reason alone, the Max Pack will be canceled.


Finally, what are you going to do when they cancel the Max Pack? Will you cancel your order? If so, Rivian wins because now they well sell your cancelled vehicle to a new customer at a much higher price. In other words, the pre-price increase customers have zero leverage in this situation because the demand is high, and they are already losing money on these vehicles. Unfortunately, switching at this point may not result in a faster delivery window because it is likely Rivian decided not to produce the Max Pack before the first delivery rolled off the production line.

Sponsored

 

[mini2nut]

I’m in 100% agreement. Leadership at Rivian are likely in discussions regarding the 180 KWh Max Pack.

 

[Dukecj]

I’m in 100% agreement. Leadership at Rivian are likely in discussions regarding the 180 KWh Max Pack.

The decision was made a long time ago. They are just waiting for the right time to announce it.

 

[COdogman]

I don’t disagree with your logic, but without confirmation of this being some sort of strategy to reward those who switch from max to large, it is just speculation. I had a max pack reserved and I switched to large and have not heard a peep other than getting invited for a first mile drive.

Also I might offer 1 big reason they would keep the max pack: Towing.

 

[Dukecj]

The Rivian Lottery ended when they received numerous complaints from early preorder holders when they found out that people like me that just placed their reservation were jumping the line. There are threads in this forum with many others that are experiencing the same things I have.

Towing is a good consumer reason for the keeping the Max Pack but securing profits for the shareholders is a better reason to cancel it. After all, they are in the business to make money if they want to survive as a company.

 

[jollyroger]

For what's it's worth, I'm getting the R1T for towing, but I'm getting the large pack to maximize the GVWR (well I guess standard would be even better but that range is indeed too low). I'm by no means a cross country tower, and I don't think a max pack is really going to help that much for those who are cross country towers anyway, what they really need is pull through charging stalls in key locations.

 

[Rivian_Hugh_III]

But how confident are you that batteries are constrained? If they’re not, Rivian makes extra cash selling a max pack. Also they fill a niche for EV’s that will draw more people in: long range adventure vehicle.

 

[SANZC02]

But how confident are you that batteries are constrained? If they’re not, Rivian makes extra cash selling a max pack. Also they fill a niche for EV’s that will draw more people in: long range adventure vehicle.

Not sure how constrained they are but the battery component costs are very high right now and is the biggest challenge for EV makers to control margins.

Not sure they will cancel the large pack but I’m almost certain they will try to manage the pre-order and EDV backlogs before they try to deliver any max pack vehicles.

 

[odingrey]

As much as I would love to see the max pack, and someone who had it originally configured (and would still today if I could get my hands on it), I have to say that I agree with you.

While I think Rivian is in a decent position, financially, they've taken a couple hits lately at the worst possible time (pandemic related supply constraints, stagflation, loss of ev credit). The max pack is really cool, but I think they need to focus on simplifying the R1 and building and launching the R2.

Maybe the max pack will come in the future when they can toy with cool stuff, but right now seems like the time they need to be really focused on profits and turning preorders into deliveries.

 

[crashmtb]

The decision was made a long time ago. They are just waiting for the right time to announce it.

is this first hand information from a muckity muck at Rivian, or solely your own speculative FUD?

 

[shrink]

is this first hand information from a muckity muck at Rivian, or solely your own speculative FUD?

Agreed.

OP, logic is quite reasonable but you joined a month ago, have very few posts, and sound way too confident.

That doesn’t mean you’re wrong, of course, but claiming a Max pack cancellation decision was made a long time ago when your own thread reads “likely” canceled but not definitely makes your pronouncements really seem a bit over the top.

 

[SASSquatch]

I don’t disagree with your logic, but without confirmation of this being some sort of strategy to reward those who switch from max to large, it is just speculation. I had a max pack reserved and I switched to large and have not heard a peep other than getting invited for a first mile drive.

Also I might offer 1 big reason they would keep the max pack: Towing.

I'm 100% in agreement COdogman - and I'm in your same situation. Originally a Max Pack reservation holder (Nov 2021) and when I switched I didn't hear a peep. I was originally 1H of 2023 and I still don't even have an updated delivery window after switching to Large Pack back in March.

I personally don't believe they will cancel the Max Pack, but I could see them delaying it further to try and get as many vehicles produced with the large pack to get their margins.

 

[Nuclianba]

Facts are also not universal. I'm max pack with a guide and PBA (not the tax agreement thing they just did), got my guide in June. Related to R1shop access but point remains they didn't reward me for switching. Given recent explore cancellation I'm nervous but also hope they would have axed it at the same time. Now whether 2023 happens is a different question...

 

[sacramentoelectric]

The Max Pack will most likely be canceled for the following reasons:

1. Cost: It will be too expensive to produce
2. Most consumers will not need 400 miles of range.
3. A 180 to 200 KWH battery is not environmentally friendly (Hummer EV)
4. Rivian will lose money for their shareholders for every MAX Pack produced.
5. Manufacturing the Max Pack will limit the production of the Large Pack and Standard Pack (i.e., for every 10 Max Packs, 15 Large Packs can be produced which will be even more with the Standard Pack.
6. Production will begin to focus on the smaller Standard Pack for faster production and greater economies of scale.

Reasoning:

Max Pack preorder holders that switched to the Large Pack received a Rivian Guide and a PBA. I ordered my Rivian 28 February 2022, and I was assigned a Rivian Guide within a week of switching. This strategy allows Rivian to lock your preorder in, and any changes must be made through your guide. In addition, any changes can delay your delivery in accordance with the PBA.

I was assigned a guide 16 May 2022, and I was told my R1T would be delivered two months ago. Now I am being told I will get an updated delivery date by the end of summer because they are now prioritizing early preorder holders (which they should have from the beginning). There are many others in this same position. However, I don’t expect to get my Rivian until sometime next year.

I knew when I got the unexpected Guide assignment that there was a strategy at play. They called it the "Rivian lottery." I believe the goal is to lower demand for the Max Pack by seemingly rewarding a few customers that switched with an early delivery. This will motivate more customers to switch if they believe this will speed up delivery. Once they get demand for the Max Pack is at a sufficiently low level, they will cancel it due to "lack of demand."

If demand is not at a sufficiently low level, they will announce a long delay and offer Max Pack preorder holders an opportunity to switch to the Large Pack for earlier delivery (prioritizing the earliest preorder holders). I suspect the only reason Rivian has not canceled the Max Pack already is that they have not reached a low enough level of demand that will minimize consumer fallout. Expect an announcement over the next three months.


Furthermore, with production being the main priority there is no way Rivian will divert limited battery supplies to produce a 180 - 200 KWH Max Pack. In other words, for every 10 Max Packs they can produce >15 Large Packs, and even more Standard Packs. For this reason alone, the Max Pack will be canceled.


Finally, what are you going to do when they cancel the Max Pack? Will you cancel your order? If so, Rivian wins because now they well sell your cancelled vehicle to a new customer at a much higher price. In other words, the pre-price increase customers have zero leverage in this situation because the demand is high, and they are already losing money on these vehicles. Unfortunately, switching at this point may not result in a faster delivery window because it is likely Rivian decided not to produce the Max Pack before the first delivery rolled off the production line.

1. Whut? Says who? The margin for the Max Pack is likely higher not lower. Adding 45kw of cells is an incremental cost increase. The cells should be around 5-6k. They charge $10k. Seems like a decent margin to me.
2. We're talking a $90k luxury 800hp ev truck. It's something people want. Need is for a used f150.
3. You could say that about the 135kw version too. It's just a matter of degree.
4. We don't know this.
5. We don't know they are constrained by cell supply. Seems like wheels and interior parts are the bottleneck.

We don't know how many people will cancel their order if Max Pack is cancelled but RJ says 20% of preorders are for the 180kWr pack. That's a big risk. Can you imagine how much the stock would drop if in their next quarterly earnings call they said their preorder numbers went down? They're so scared of that possibility they gave massive sweetheart deals to early reservation holders just to keep their preorder numbers up. Wall Street cares more about growth than margins. Anyway, demand isn't unlimited and it doesn't necessarily follow that an early preorder cancelation turns into a higher margin order at the current prices.

The lack of any news on Max Pack does make me nervous about a delay. There's so much we don't know. How are they going to stuff an additional 600lbs of batteries in the skateboard and maintain a decent payload? Will it charge any faster than the 135kwh pack? Are there any changes to storage capacity? Can we get a more specific delivery estimate than a six month window?

I can see them pushing it back to 2024 but it seems risky to cancel it outright. If they do cancel it, I hope they make the decision s00n. Even though I don't necessarily agree with your reasoning, I'm still concerned Rivian will delay or cancel the Max Pack and I think your concerns are totally plausible. I hope you're wrong but I wouldn't bet against you.

 

[Firewired]

I really hope you are wrong. I am coming from 5 prior teslas since 2014, and that mid 300's range is at least to me the sweet spot when traveling cross country. I hope they keep the Max Pack on the back burner and sell the large pack to those ready to go or willing to switch.

There are a couple of reasons I still hope for it. I had my first Tesla pre-supercharger network and charging on long-distance trips without DC charging is the pits. I used to stop at RV parks and charge for 6 to 8 hours on a 50 amp plug just to get to the coast here in Texas in my P85D. The P85D would only get mid 200's not that far off of the R1Ts highway range. It is still an issue even with DC fast charging being so much more common, being that the R1T is so much heavier, less efficient, and can't charge at the 250 kWh that the Tesla can. I was hoping to have the Max Pack to be able to charge up that sweet spot 80% of charge to make long-distance travel that much easier, as well as have the ability to go further off the grid without thinking about it, as well as towing.

Sorry for the rant. I hope your conjecture is just conjecture, and they aren't listening cause there are those of us who really want our cake and eat it too, and are willing to wait for the Max Pack. Most days I don't need that much range, but when you are taking a long distant trip a big battery rocks.

Sponsored