Time to delivery.... if I order now.

[mkg3]

They will have to raise capital, probably in 2024. Current cash on hand should last them through 2023 and into 2024. They are probably at least five years away from being profitable before cap ex and a decade+ away from self-funding the business.

Given Rivian's ambitions (own battery factory, R2, R3 platforms and RCV in Europe and whatever else they're thinking about), I fully expect my $RIVN holdings to be diluted within the next 12 months and not far away like 2024.

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[Dbeglor]

Given Rivian's ambitions (own battery factory, R2, R3 platforms and RCV in Europe and whatever else they're thinking about), I fully expect my $RIVN holdings to be diluted within the next 12 months and not far away like 2024.

I've already done the math/modeling. Now, they very well may decide to do it anyway because of market valuations.

However, it would not be well received to go back to the well within 12 months of the IPO, it would signal either a) poor planning/execution (unless there are new developments not foreseen, but unlikely that quick) or b) you believe the stock is overvalued. Everything known about their business plan for the next two years should have been factored into the amount they sought to raise in the IPO (and they ended up raising more than they thought).

 

[roth_nj]

So I’m a none LE preorder, pretty late to the game after being on the fence for a couple years but before the IPO. From threads at the time, I’m at about 40k at the time. What’s the best current guess on wait time for me? I still haven’t gotten a delivery window email yet so I’m just curious

 

[EVTrucking]

So I’m a none LE preorder, pretty late to the game after being on the fence for a couple years but before the IPO. From threads at the time, I’m at about 40k at the time. What’s the best current guess on wait time for me? I still haven’t gotten a delivery window email yet so I’m just curious

I think I am in the 40k group as well (3/21/21) and estimate delivery mid to late 2023.

 

[Zoidz]

IMHO I think 30k in 22 snd 70-80k in 23 is significantly overly optimistic. There is currently no evidence that Rivian has entered the production ramp phase yet. They have been at it 3+ months with not much to show for it.

I disagree with this. There is evidence of a ramp up. There are many posts recently of trucks on delivery trailers all over the US. That was not happening 4 weeks ago. I've been involved in many manufacturing start ups over the years. From the little clues I have seen so far, I think It's very possible for Rivian to have a Hockey Stick production ramp up and hit their targets for 2022.

 

[EVTrucking]

I disagree with this. There is evidence of a ramp up. There are many posts recently of trucks on delivery trailers all over the US. That was not happening 4 weeks ago. I've been involved in many manufacturing start ups over the years. From the little clues I have seen so far, I think It's very possible for Rivian to have a Hockey Stick production ramp up and hit their targets for 2022.

I sincerely hope you are right but I too have many years of manufacturing and hockey stick ramps for complex products is quite rare if at all. Especially in the current world wide environment.

I will expect the worst and hope for the best.

 

[switters]

Hi all,

I have a Tesla Model X that is 2 years into a 3-year lease. I'm trying to figure out what to replace it with. I was hoping to get an R1S, but it sounds like even if I ordered it now, I likely wouldn't receive it until sometime in 2023—which would leave me without a vehicle unless I could get Tesla to extend the lease.

Even replacing the Model X with another Model X won't be a sure thing. There's about a 10-12 month wait for a new Model X, depending on the configuration. And that's just what's advertised. The sales rep I talked to the other day said delays are likely.

If delivery times weren't an issue, and I knew I could get whatever I wanted, I'd probably choose the R1S. I drove a Model S for 3 years and now a Model X, and I'm ready for something different. I actually prefer the look of the interior of the R1S to the Model X, and I don't think the MX is worth a $30k premium.

What would you do in my situation?

 

[Diddy123]

What would you do in my situation?

Welcome to the forum.

If it were me, I’d put down reservation deposits on both the R1S and Model X right away. Fully refundable, so relatively low risk.

Hopefully you’ll get some better insight into delivery timing for both in the relatively near future. Once you have that info, you can make a decision on which option will work better.

If your existing lease comes up before either is available, I’d exercise the option to purchase it off lease, in order to hold you over until one of the new vehicles becomes available. Then, sell it once you take delivery. With used car prices the way they are right now, you might even come out ahead by doing that.

 

[switters]

Welcome to the forum.

If it were me, I’d put down reservation deposits on both the R1S and Model X right away. Fully refundable, so relatively low risk.

Hopefully you’ll get some better insight into delivery timing for both in the relatively near future. Once you have that info, you can make a decision on which option will work better.

If your existing lease comes up before either is available, I’d exercise the option to purchase it off lease, in order to hold you over until one of the new vehicles becomes available. Then, sell it once you take delivery. With used car prices the way they are right now, you might even come out ahead by doing that.

That makes a lot of sense. I just talked to a friend who sold her MX for $10k more than she bought it new for last year, so I don't think it's unreasonable to assume I could actually make money if I buy out the lease and then re-sell the car.

The Tesla deposit is non-refundable, but it's only $250. I'm comfortable with losing that if I end up getting the Rivian, especially since the R1S is $30kk less than the MX as I would configure it.

Thanks!

 

[virgnia_rivian]

That makes a lot of sense. I just talked to a friend who sold her MX for $10k more than she bought it new for last year, so I don't think it's unreasonable to assume I could actually make money if I buy out the lease and then re-sell the car.

The Tesla deposit is non-refundable, but it's only $250. I'm comfortable with losing that if I end up getting the Rivian, especially since the R1S is $30kk less than the MX as I would configure it.

Thanks!

So I have a somewhat similar situation. I just sold my 2015 Jeep Grand Cherokee Overland because the used car market is nuts and I basically drove the car around for six years for only $17k. I also have a Porsche Macan, which is a lease and the lease ends in October 2022. I have a reservation for an R1T, but don't expect it until either end of 2022 or first half of 2023. I am waiting for any updates from Rivian, but if it's not going to be close I will likely buy out the Macan and then sell it when the R1T gets delivered.

So you could buy out your lease and sell as well.
Another option, Volvo's subscription plan. No long term commitment, and you can quit after (5) months. https://www.volvocars.com/us/care-by-volvo/

 

[ForestR1S]

I have a day one f150 lightning order but decided to put in an R1S order yesterday because im not really sure i want a pick up and i can wait.. if i get it by late 23 ill be happy. It will replace my model 3 so ill just buy more stock in the meantime

 

[switters]

Just got my R1S Adventure delivery estimate: 2nd half of 2023. If the Rivian rollout is anything like Tesla's original rollout, then I'm likely looking at 2024.

I'll probably keep my order in, but I will clearly need to find another vehicle between when my Model X lease ends in December 2022 and when I get my R1S.

In fact, given the strength of the used car market, and my dissatisfaction with the Model X (another story for another time), I'm considering buying out the Tesla lease and getting another car for between now and when the R1S arrives.

But the problem is that most of the new cars I'd want to replace the Model X with also have a long wait, and used cars are hard to come by (and when you do find one, it's priced at a significant premium). Still, given that I'll likely be able to sell the Model X for a premium as well, it will at least be a horizontal move where I won't lose any money and may even make some.

 

[SeaGeo]

Just got my R1S Adventure delivery estimate: 2nd half of 2023. If the Rivian rollout is anything like Tesla's original rollout, then I'm likely looking at 2024.

I'll probably keep my order in, but I will clearly need to find another vehicle between when my Model X lease ends in December 2022 and when I get my R1S.

In fact, given the strength of the used car market, and my dissatisfaction with the Model X (another story for another time), I'm considering buying out the Tesla lease and getting another car for between now and when the R1S arrives.

But the problem is that most of the new cars I'd want to replace the Model X with also have a long wait, and used cars are hard to come by (and when you do find one, it's priced at a significant premium). Still, given that I'll likely be able to sell the Model X for a premium as well, it will at least be a horizontal move where I won't lose any money and may even make some.

If you go to a CARB State ever, you may be able to find an Ioniq 5 at MSRP if you're quick.

 

[switters]

If you go to a CARB State ever, you may be able to find an Ioniq 5 at MSRP if you're quick.

Thanks. I'm in UT, not far from CO, which I believe is a CARB state. I haven't looked closely at the Ioniq 5 but maybe I should.

I may just get a used, low miles Caynee or Cayenne e-Hybrid if I can find one. I'd probably pocket $20k after buying out my Model X lease and selling it, and since we don't drive a lot, I imagine I'd be able to sell it for a decent price when the R1S arrives.

 

[sk00pie]

Just reserved an R1T! Late 23, early 24 a good rough ETA?

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