Rivian Q4 FY2021 Earnings Call 3-10-22

[Khaneric]

Would be interesting if some of the forum members that recently took delivery could share the build dates.

I've been asking everyone that already got their truck what their build dates were... no replies.

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[bd5400]

Also hard to say but sounded like the bi-directional charging is going to be the new hardware as well wish they could confirm that. Some people may decide to delay if they knew they would get that.

It will be interesting to see when and how they announce such changes, since they will likely coincide with other changes like the quad motor version switching over to the in-house motors. I could see a lot of people hesitant about taking delivery of the older hardware once Rivian makes an official announcement, unless the price difference ends up being huge.

 

[Cosmacelf]

All in all not that bad considering.

Lose all of the doom and gloom of people who clearly do not believe there are supply chain issues, there are 3 more weeks in Q1, to date they delivered 2400 units. They will most likely exceed the 2012 number Tesla had of 2600 units (June thru December) by the end of the 1st quarter which is the end of their second QTR of production.

Tesla did not have the global supply chain issues but they were struggling with cash flow.

If they do hit the 25k in their first year of full production that will beat Teslas 22k and Tesla was QTRs 3-6, Rivian is QTRs 2-5.

Yes, in line with Tesla's first mass production ramp. It's just that people had pie in the sky dreams about Rivian (and Lucid and everyone else). Reality is hitting, and the stock price will likely settle down to something more rational until Rivian surprises ... 2 years from now. The company will soldier on, its just that the stock price will be in the penalty box for a while.

 

[Whmorken]

I see serious supply chain constaints daily in the two businesses I am VP at. Supply chain constraints are across the board, everywhere. Most people really are clueless about how difficult and challenging it is.

And now this from Volkswagon just a bit ago - hang on for a rough 2022-2023:

"The head of Volkswagen, Europe’s largest carmaker, has warned that a prolonged war in Ukraine risks being “very much worse” for the region’s economy than the coronavirus pandemic. The interruption to global supply chains “could lead to huge price increases, scarcity of energy and inflation”, Herbert Diess, chief executive of the German carmaker, told the Financial Times. “It could be very risky for the European and German economies.”

Thank you! This is not scare mongering. World events loom over Rivian production. No need to speculate just be ready. Go Rivian!

 

[SANZC02]

It will be interesting to see when and how they announce such changes, since they will likely coincide with other changes like the quad motor version switching over to the in-house motors. I could see a lot of people hesitant about taking delivery of the older hardware once Rivian makes an official announcement, unless the price difference ends up being huge.

There will be a price difference, might be a way to convert people from the discounted original to the new configuration.

That seems like a win/win for people that care about 800 volt and bi-directional charging to have that option.

 

[SeaGeo]

It is interesting that the drone video showed c.800 vehicles last week which is over half the production to date for this quarter. They must have been waiting for some part or shipping was very slow.

Waiting for the software update.

 

[Trandall]

Ugh. Earnings report filled with excuses, not accountability.

Honest... I ran out of gas chips. I... I had a flat tire. I didn't have enough money for cab fare. My tux didn't come back from the cleaners. An old friend came in from out of town. Someone stole my car. There was an earthquake. A terrible flood. Locusts! IT WASN'T MY FAULT, I SWEAR TO GOD!

When asked specifically what the limiting factor is what are you supposed to say... "well we collectively decided to retard production to see how you would react.

 

[Joel]

I wonder what this means....

Hopefully the max pack will get these updates. Or offer this updated feature set at the new prices. Then it would be worth it.

 

[Rivian_Hugh_III]

Did not sound like that. Sounded like the new in-house motors are 800 volt so probably not until those configurations are built.

Also hard to say but sounded like the bi-directional charging is going to be the new hardware as well wish they could confirm that. Some people may decide to delay if they knew they would get that.

So maybe 800v on the future 1200hp Rivian.

 

[zefram47]

Really hoping the 800v architecture coincides with the max pack deliveries. It would make sense why the max pack was delayed, and why the cost of the option is so high.

I was wondering the same. I initially assumed it was a supply constraint issue since they could built 4 large packs for every 3 max packs. I will be thrilled to wait a bit longer if I get 800V, heat pump, bi-directional charging, and 300 kW.

I think this is what the delay of the max pack is all about. Mid-late next year maybe.

Max pack will almost assuredly be NCM 2170 cells as the current large pack is. LFP has lower energy density than the 2170s, which is why Rivian (and Tesla) are only using it in their smallest packs.


Also worth a note that they can still use the in-house motors and derate them for the current 800ish horsepower. There's no reason that this supposed R1X at 1200 hp can't coincide with an R1 at 800 hp with in-house 800V motors.

 

[SANZC02]

. There's no reason that this supposed R1X at 1200 hp can't coincide with an R1 at 800 hp with in-house 800V motors.

True there is no reason it can’t but a clear reason it should not. You have a bunch of discounted quad motor reservations holders that would most likely pay the new prices for the newer tech.

It would be irresponsible for management to give that away when they can get the additional revenue to allow it as an option.

 

[crashmtb]

True there is no reason it can’t but a clear reason it should not. You have a bunch of discounted quad motor reservations holders that would most likely pay the new prices for the newer tech.

It would be irresponsible for management to give that away when they can get the additional revenue to allow it as an option.

I would, if the delivery timeframe was not later than it is now .

They mention using the new motors in EDVs by the end of this year. If they get production of those motors up and running, maybe it‘ll make it into a spicier R1 sooner.

 

[Guy]

Waiting for the software update.

They have been doing updates every two weeks and I would be surprised if they made that many in that time. Also they could update the software at the delivery centers.

 

[SeaGeo]

They have been doing updates every two weeks and I would be surprised if they made that many in that time. Also they could update the software at the delivery centers.

My understanding was that *that* specific software update was large enough that they wanted the trucks there when they pushed it out.

That makes a lot more sense to me than holding delivery back for for a month what's basically an email from someone for prices that they've been considering for several months. Particularly with delivery numbers in focus as part of the (at the time) upcoming quarterly call.

 

[Cosmacelf]

RJ mentioned LFP batteries being used later this year, but it sounds like that will be for EDV applications first.

800v seemed like revisions to R1 and EDV lines once they switch over entirely to the in-house motors, but that's just a guess based on wording. He wasn't clear at all on 800v.

Yeah that's what I got from it. RJ often isn't very clear, is he? Almost like he doesn't want to be clear on things he thinks others are going to be disappointed about. Anyways, anyone know why Rivian didn't spend the last several years developing their own motors from the get go?

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