Oct-Dec 2022 Deliveries - Delayed?

[Attesan997]

Reflecting on the call last night as someone with a Q4 2022 delivery window, I'm a bit saddened I likely won't see delivery until 2023. Hopefully things improve but I don't see any recourse. I wouldn't be able to get an electric truck sooner from another manufacturer. For my needs, I'm not sure it makes sense to go backwards and get a hybrid F150. I guess all I can really do with the time is assume my MY will have another years worth of depreciation by the time it's sold.

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[crashmtb]

RJ stated on the call yesterday, that the Dual motor design is all new, in house, very compact with built in inverter, 800 V. They also said Rivian has 100 of the new dual motor trucks built and in validation stage now.

Not 100 trucks in validation. 100 motors

(pg. 8 of the investor letter)

 

[Polecat]

I was in the Oct-Dec window but at this point I'm almost hoping it gets delayed? The possibility of more information surrounding the additions of 800v and V2H/L are a little more appealing to me at the moment than getting this truck sooner-ish.

If I could get the dual motor, with the Large Pack and the rest of the Adventure trim at the original price as well, I would jump on that. The quad motor was only ever interesting to me because of the silly stuff I would never actually use, like Tank Turn.

 

[bbenoit726]

I am not sure what the actual delay is. They had said they expected to get through the first 55k by the end of 23. They also said that if not for supply chain they think they could do 50k this year. Based on that, line throughput is progressing but feeding it is the issue.

If the split is 10/15 (EDV/R1) for this year and did not increase the run rate next year but supply chain clears up, they could do 10/40 (EDV/R1) next year and that would give them the 55k. If the run rate continues to ramp up and supply chain can be ironed out they could do more next year.

Yeah, call me overly optimistic, but I think it may be too early to declare a massive delay is coming (granted, that WOULD be par for the course)

For one, I'm not 100% sure the split will be 10 EDV to 15 R1 -- was that specifically called out anywhere? All I know is RJ said vaguely that the mix would remain the same, so even if the raw number of overall vehicles produced did get cut in half, that would mean the Amazon van production gets cut in half too.

I know 10k EDV is what was in the contract, but Amazon is also a large stakeholder and it's in their best interest that Rivian succeed -- and working through the backlog of R1 reservations is key to that success. If I'm Amazon, I'll take 5k vans instead to help Rivian do that, because there's little point getting 10k this year if the other 90k evaporate when the company goes under.

Anyway, I'm hopeful that our estimates as well as the 25k number are conservative, even if that would be a first for Rivian so far ?

 

[p3ck]

At this point all we can do is wait for the updated web page that shows our "estimate".

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

One thing to remember with this, is that the priority of builds will likely remain the same. Based on survey data, we know that the order of build is

LE R1T
LE R1S
Adventure R1T
Adventure R1S
Adventure R1T Max
Explore R1T
Explore R1S

That said, we don't know how many orders each segment represents but we can assume about 5-10k LE total. Therefore, if you assume 15k total R1 built this year, you just have to be in the first 5k non LE trucks to still get a 2022 delivery. Hopefully when the delivery estimator goes live we will be able to figure out what the notional "cut off date" is to get a truck in '22.

 

[Chewy734]

At this point all we can do is wait for the updated web page that shows our "estimate".

Anyone know when is the updated web page is going to happen?

 

[Forager]

In light of the production delays, I wouldn’t count on that feature for a while. Maybe it will drop the next time their marketing team has to take out the garbage.

 

[r1t_kev]

.

 

[bd5400]

I'm now assuming I will be pushed into 2023 but the question is how far? If I'm moved to Q1 2023, then I don't think I have much to worry about. If it ends up being the second half of 2023, then I'll start being concerned that I'm buying an R1T right before improvements are announced and the switch over to the in-house motors. I could see a tri-motor option being added, which would be 900hp, have 800v architecture, and feature bi-directional charging. If I miss out on that by a matter of months because my original pre-order is delayed, that's going to be very, very disappointing.

On the plus side, so long as they continue to honor pre-order pricing, we shouldn't take a huge value hit once everything switches over.

 

[AllInev]

In light of Rivian's Q4 earnings call production forecast, many (hopefully not all?) of us currently in this Oct-Dec delivery window will probably be bumped into one of the 2023 delivery windows.

Given my August 2021 preorder date, I'm assuming I'll be bumped into next year (2023), so I'm planning to keep an eye out and an ear to the ground to learn more about Rivian's new drive system and any accompanying upgrades and improvements -800 volt, V2H/V2G, chipset upgrades, etc.

For those who have not read Rivian's "Q4 2021 Shareholder Letter", here's a quote relevant to this forum thread,

"We intend to begin offering the Dual-Motor AWD system in our R1 products in the second half of 2023..." (I know, I know, that probably means Dec 31, 2023)

The dual-motor AWD system will use Rivian's "in-house- designed and manufactured Single-Motor drive unit"

My thinking today is that I will probably keep my preorder and use it to get in front of the line for the updated R1 models.

With a likely 2023+ delivery date, I'm feeling more and more uncomfortable spending $80k+ on the current 2018 tech.

Looking forward to learning more about the updated 2023 R1 models and the reality of them actually being substantially improved by mid-2023.

 

[AllInev]

RJ stated on the call yesterday, that the Dual motor design is all new, in house, very compact with built in inverter, 800 V. They also said Rivian has 100 of the new dual motor trucks built and in validation stage now.

Not 100 trucks with the new dual-motor drive system. 100 "drive units". The drive units are part of the drive system. Here's a quote from Rivian's recent Shareholder's letter:

"Our recent product announcement included the planned release of our in-house- designed and manufactured Single-Motor drive unit. For the R1 platform, this drive unit will be used for our Dual-Motor all-wheel drive (“AWD”) system."

 

[VHRivian]

There is clearly a lot of information floating out there, so I may be way off on this:

Wasn't the 2022 goal to get to a production RATE of about 50,000/year or roughly 1,000/week by the end of this year? They weren't targeting getting through the (at that time) 55,000 pre-orders until the end of 2023, right?

Based on those number I don't think they planned on making significantly more than the 25,000 we just heard about. I think those of us in the Oct-Dec window may get pushed a little, but I am still hopeful for Q1 2023 at the latest.

Please let me know if I am way off on this because I have had enough disappointment already.

 

[AllInev]

In light of the production delays, I wouldn’t count on that feature for a while. Maybe it will drop the next time their marketing team has to take out the garbage.

I agree. The new production targets most likely messed with the 2H 2022 and 1H 2023 delivery windows. We just have to wait for Rivian to crunch the numbers again. Also, the March 1st debacle surely didn't help with progress on the "estimator" feature.

 

[AllInev]

There is clearly a lot of information floating out there, so I may be way off on this:

Wasn't the 2022 goal to get to a production RATE of about 50,000/year or roughly 1,000/week by the end of this year? They weren't targeting getting through the (at that time) 55,000 pre-orders until the end of 2023, right?

Based on those number I don't think they planned on making significantly more than the 25,000 we just heard about. I think those of us in the Oct-Dec window may get pushed a little, but I am still hopeful for Q1 2023 at the latest.

Please let me know if I am way off on this because I have had enough disappointment already.

? You might be right. If you are, it sure would be nice if Rivian updated us sOON on the status of our current delivery windows. (I know. Not gunna happen)

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