Rivian News: R2, Production, Preorders, 2024, Amazon, NACS, Self Driving (from Global Auto Industry Conference 2023)

[rbr19870445]

Subaru got caught sleeping on the EV front. I'm guessing a lot of Rivian buyers are coming from Subaru, myself included. Still have a 2013 Outback. Went to my Subie/Nissan dealer today for a 75 cent screw that I needed and instantly had 3 salespeople drooling over my R1S. If Rivian gets a capable R2 out before an BEV Outback they would sell quite a few of them I think.

Every Japanese car company got caught sleeping on the EV front. I get it and I agree with them that EV can't be the only solution but they keep on pushing this hydrogen pipe dream that hasn't gone anywhere. The Nissan Ariya and Toyota BZ4X are shit compared to the offerings that they had between the Leaf and Prius.

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[DuoRivians]

Every Japanese car company got caught sleeping on the EV front. I get it and I agree with them that EV can't be the only solution but they keep on pushing this hydrogen pipe dream that hasn't gone anywhere. The Nissan Ariya and Toyota BZ4X are shit compared to the offerings that they had between the Leaf and Prius.

Funny enough, saw these both at a local Starbucks ?

 

[R1Tom]

I think Rivian was caught a little flat footed on the rush of NACS adoption news. At this point they are probably look at how it helps or hurts their strategic plans with the R1/R2 and RAN. I do believe they'll build out RAN with NACS but I don't think we'll get an announcement until late '23 at the earliest.

Beyond that, lots of good stuff in those announcements.

EDIT: I'm really looking forward to seeing the R2 next year. I'm in if they make a Wrangler competitor.

Can you imagine how many Magneto Jeep could sell if they would get that thing to market?

 

[R1Tom]

Every Japanese car company got caught sleeping on the EV front. I get it and I agree with them that EV can't be the only solution but they keep on pushing this hydrogen pipe dream that hasn't gone anywhere. The Nissan Ariya and Toyota BZ4X are shit compared to the offerings that they had between the Leaf and Prius.

They will catch up....and I suspect sooner than most think.

 

[pc500]

The adapter I was referring to was the CCS Combo 1 adapter that Tesla sells.

Only Tesla currently has the NACS port, and this adapter works on most Tesla vehicles. There was a cut-over point where anything before that point needs a retrofit. At least for the Model 3/Y the retrofit will be available.

My point was that most (and I should have clarified this) NACS owners today can charge at a CCS1 charger with an adapter. I'm sure the same will be true of post NACS Ford/GM vehicles where an adapter will be available in the event they need to use a CCS1 charger.

You want Rivian to get onboard with NACS, but you don't know the details of what that agreement even entails. You also don't know what the cost of charging will be for non-Tesla vehicles on a Supercharger network. You don't even know if Tesla is open to working with Rivian and and allowing Rivian owners to charge at a Supercharger. Tesla and Rivian are currently involved in a lawsuit.

This isn't like Blockbuster, Betamax or anything else. This is a case where the Federal Government is advocating an Open Standard (CCS1) despite a huge install lead that NACS has.

I do want to have a single charging standard as deciding what car to by based on the Charging port is just nutty. But, I want that standard to be an open standard that isn't controlled by a single vehicle manufacture. I don't really care if its CCS or NACS (although I have a preference for the NACS form factor).

I think we both want the same thing, but I think more things need to fall into place before Rivian can move to NACS. Where they provide in an adapter for legacy owners with CCS.

When the government made that decision nacs was a proprietary technology. It was patent encumbered and far from an open standard. I actually believe it's governmental pressure to go CCS instead that made Tesla agree to offer it royalty free.

Make no doubt Ford and GM isn't adopting the connector because they feel it's beneficial at this point in the ecosystem life cycle to switch over. They're doing it because they want to sell trucks and Tesla will not open their network to others without it.

Someday we'll get out of the business of brand specific gas stations and will be commoditized but for now it carries on.

 

[rbr19870445]

They will catch up....and I suspect sooner than most think.

They will catch up....and I suspect sooner than most think.

I don’t. The Japanese are just about as stubborn as the Germans when it comes to certain things. See Betamax, HD DVD, mini disc, etc. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if they are able to develop something on par with Tesla/Rivian/Polestar. Both the Nissan and Toyota randomly derate during fast charging to protect the battery?? Makes no sense for both companies, especially Toyota with the experience of the Prius and their LeMans hypercar.

 

[Autolycus]

Seriously, please move discussion about NACS to another thread. There are several that are perfect for it. Claire literally gave no news about it, so there's really nothing to discuss about NACS that's relevant to this thread anyway.

As for the RAN buildout: RJ said in the Marques Brownlee interview that they're still planning 600+ sites and all open within a couple years. Sounds like that's still the plan, based on Claire's comments today. They need to accelerate the buildout, but they're making progress. I'm sure growth will be exponential as they fine-tune the process and are able to get through the typical lag from site identification to contracts, permits, etc. to actual site prep and build.

 

[SANZC02]

Seriously, please move discussion about NACS to another thread. There are several that are perfect for it. Claire literally gave no news about it, so there's really nothing to discuss about NACS that's relevant to this thread anyway.

As for the RAN buildout: RJ said in the Marques Brownlee interview that they're still planning 600+ sites and all open within a couple years. Sounds like that's still the plan, based on Claire's comments today. They need to accelerate the buildout, but they're making progress. I'm sure growth will be exponential as they fine-tune the process and are able to get through the typical lag from site identification to contracts, permits, etc. to actual site prep and build.

If I remember correctly from the RJ interview I heard today, he said there are 30 something open now and 100 in process.

 

[Autolycus]

I don’t. The Japanese are just about as stubborn as the Germans when it comes to certain things. See Betamax, HD DVD, mini disc, etc.

You do know that VHS and Blu Ray, the competition that beat out Betamax and HD DVD, were both invented by Japanese companies, right?

 

[rbr19870445]

You do know that VHS and Blu Ray, the competition that beat out Betamax and HD DVD, were both invented by Japanese companies, right?

I’m a fucking idiot.

 

[Autolycus]

If I remember correctly from the RJ interview I heard today, he said there are 30 something open now and 100 in process.

Sounds about right. As of right now, there are 33 open; 22 on their "coming soon" map (still don't know what "soon" means for that); and 45-50 that we have known addresses with a utility, permit, or other sort of request that have been found by forum, twitter, etc.

I’m a fucking idiot.

Nah, you're not an idiot, but I got a little giggle out of it.

 

[SANZC02]

Surprised at how much traffic on this thread and not much on this one, it is a good interview with RJ.

 

[DuoRivians]

Surprised at how much traffic on this thread and not much on this one, it is a good interview with RJ.

I listened to that one too. Agree it was a good interview, but I didn’t really hear anything that was new in that one.

 

[Zoidz]

This is sad news. The factory expansion was supposed to increase production capacity from 150k to 200k. They were supposed to reach the 150k rate by the end of this year. Bummer. It appears the pivot from EDV to R1 cost them overall capacity and delayed the ramp up.

There could be otherreasons why production volume targets are reduced:
- Revised sales forecast volume due to the economy/interest rates or reduced consumer demand
- Vendors cannot produce OEM components to meet Rivian’s demand
- Csnnot hire sufficient manufacturing workers to ramp as originally planned. There are 10 million job openings across the US.

 

[Craigins]

There could be otherreasons why production volume targets are reduced:
- Revised sales forecast volume due to the economy/interest rates or reduced consumer demand
- Vendors cannot produce OEM components to meet Rivian’s demand
- Csnnot hire sufficient manufacturing workers to ramp as originally planned. There are 10 million job openings across the US.

Sadly only that 3rd one would apply.

It isn't production volume it is production rate. In the past they've paused production, built up supplies, then went full speed to test how fast they could produce vehicles at the facility.

Granted they won't have the supplies to sustain that rate for any meaningful time, it does represent their ability to plan and build a factory.

For instance if they target 200k and can only hit 150k, that's a pretty big miss. How will the R2 numbers be different?

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