CONCERN: RIVN have enough cash to to go beyond 2025 and launch R2?

[Oldsmobile_Mike]

Can’t they increase the really low $100 reserve price on the R2? I suppose they need a lot more money than what that’d bring.

Imo this is going to make getting those reservations even more important. I'd like to see them open up the deposits sooner. Even if I don't wind up getting an R2 (who knows where we'll be in terms of finances and vehicle need in a few years), I believe in the vision of the company and am looking forward to giving them my money. ?

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[DuoRivians]

Do I think Rivian will go bankrupt? No.

But unless something changes, I think as an investor, one would expect the stock to be down to flat over the next 2 years. Stings a bit when nasdaq is up 2%, while rivn is down 25%.

I think any of these could be a near term catalyst:

- raise sufficient capital now, eg $5B. Deal with the dilution and get rid of the cash flow overhang
- build R2 in Normal and start delivering in 2025. It could be 20-30K vehicles, but the optics matter
- announce some large RDV partnerships that would justify a 65K per year capacity.

I didn’t include R1 sales as a near term catalyst, because I think that’s been mostly tapped in the near term, and 57K vehicles max in 2024 doesn’t leave a whole lot of demand confidence.

 

[Gr8Barn]

Do I think Rivian will go bankrupt? No.

But unless something changes, I think as an investor, one would expect the stock to be down to flat over the next 2 years. Stings a bit when nasdaq is up 2%, while rivn is down 25%.

I think any of these could be a near term catalyst:

- raise sufficient capital now, eg $5B. Deal with the dilution and get rid of the cash flow overhang
- build R2 in Normal and start delivering in 2025. It could be 20-30K vehicles, but the optics matter
- announce some large RDV partnerships that would justify a 65K per year capacity.

I didn’t include R1 sales as a near term catalyst, because I think that’s been mostly tapped in the near term, and 57K vehicles max in 2024 doesn’t leave a whole lot of demand confidence.

Valid point. The production for 2024 doesn't instill confidence (same as 2023 and 20% lower than expectations) that they will see enough demand to grow faster than the market they serve.

 

[zonehawk]

I loved my R1T, but there's a reason why I sold it last week and it wasn't the vehicle itself... it was Rivian's viability of survival long term and whether i'd be able to get my vehicle serviced down the road. The r2 being announced and lowering the value of the R1 platform, and the general cooling of the used car market. I wouldn't build a new plant, I'd retool the Normal line to support the R2 and lower production of R1 since demand is already cooling.

New Inventory at service centers stacking up, opening up everything to leases, moving forward the R2 launch, pushing major ad campaigns on multiple social media platforms, reducing 10% of their workforce, investors selling stock, and more hesitation to questions on long term path to profitability from their leadership.. it's not looking good.

 

[Redline]

So silly

 

[bummin]

If Fisker and Lucid stay solvent, I wouldn’t give it a second thought about Rivian. Even Ford and are struggling with EV sales, and Rivian has a great product and they innovate. Not an F150 converted to EV, or a GM 5.7 converted to a diesel ( for all you old folks) My stock is a long term wait, but will be putting my money down on an R2, Rivian will probably outlive me ?

 

[Dark-Fx]

Imo this is going to make getting those reservations even more important. I'd like to see them open up the deposits sooner. Even if I don't wind up getting an R2 (who knows where we'll be in terms of finances and vehicle need in a few years), I believe in the vision of the company and am looking forward to giving them my money. ?

Would love to see early deposits for current owners, but that's probably counterproductive if they produce flawless vehicles right away.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

At this point, Rivian should just raise $5B now. I bet the share price would actually go higher afterwards. Relief from the capital overhang being over.

A measly $5 billion for Uncle Jeff is like me buying popcorn from my niece and nephew for their Boy Scout troop. Time to stop playing with your extremely phallic rocket ships and pony up!

 

[Craigins]

I do enjoy everyone ignoring the van product and focusing completely on the R1 profitablity.

The elimination of the exclusivity at the end of last year should open up the doors to more van production/sales in the future.

I think it was a mistake to bump the R1 factory capacity beyond the original 65k. Keeping the rate of 65k with an average of 45-50k for R1s was what I was expecting from the IPO. The rest of the capacity would then go to vans.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

At this point, Rivian should just raise $5B now. I bet the share price would actually go higher afterwards. Relief from the capital overhang being over.

Google "Rivian bond". They did already. Man, people really need to be less reactionary from day-to-day, get too far into the weeds and miss the entire landscape. Stop trying to micromanage them from afar, as if they'd let joe-public run the place. Rivian has intelligence the general public don't have access to. They clearly have a plan and are executing it, along with with necessary adjustments along the way as situations change (like layoffs).

All of us outside of the inner circle over there only see and know what's in the public space. We don't know everything. Let's not pretend we do. All these worry-wort and highly speculative verbose threads accomplish only one thing: lend support to the negative narrative that some individuals/media would like to push, for their own satisfaction and personal gain. This forum is public and searchable by search engines. These people do read and have quoted content from here, like the complaints.

Remember how long it took Tesla to be profitable. Remember how long it took Amazon to be profitable. Remember how Apple was once almost bankrupt. Remember the same doom and gloom predictions have been made of Tesla multiple times, even today, to Musk's ire (and now he is making the same noise about Rivian, even though survival of Rivian and all other EVs can benefit him and Tesla). Despite having an unstable maniac at the helm, Tesla is still here today and is still the leader in BEVs by volume.

Stop worrying. None of us are in charge over there. It's moot. Wait and see.

 

[DuoRivians]

Google "Rivian bond". They did already. Man, people really need to be less reactionary from day-to-day, get too far into the weeds and miss the entire landscape. Stop trying to micromanage them from afar, as if they could. Rivian as intelligence the general public don't. They clearly have a plan and are executing it, along with with necessary adjustments along the way as situations change.

All of us outside of the inner circle at Rivian only see and know what's in the public space. We don't know everything. Let's not pretend we do. All these worry-wort and highly speculative verbose threads accomplish only one thing: lend support to the negative narrative that some individuals/media would like to push.

Rivian has already raised $4.4B in convertible debt.

If you’re referring the $5B “bond” deal with that GA development group, that’s a shadow bond deal to simply make their GA $1.5B incentive deal work. It’s not actual new money going to Rivian

 

[Zeus]

Internet: Rivian needs to cut cost (staff, streamline production process, etc) in order to survive.
Rivian: We will be reducing staff numbers by 10%, shutting down our plant during q2 to streamline production and save 30% per vehicle.
Internet: Rivian is doomed!! How are they going to survive by losing staff and shutting down production for weeks? They are not even going to hit the 81k delivery target that WE (Rivian never mentioned this) set for them.

Calm down folks. We all mostly want the same thing: for Rivian to survive. I'm sure Rivian management want our (shareholders) company to survive too. It's a long-term thing. Call me stupid or naive, but with the size and assets of Rivian, I find it difficult to believe that the company will just disappear overnight. Worst case scenario, a wealthy buyer or consortium will buy it out.

 

[Mr_T]

It is a bit concerning when RJ stuttered and deflected when asked if they will have enough capital/cash to launch the R2 platform and continue to deliver beyond 2025. Postive gross margin is one thing, but cash flow is another. Watch video at 3:50 and then the question asked again at 5:09.

https://cnb.cx/4bZVk6H

I noticed the same thing. My take is he's nervous but that a strong R2 demand and/or changing market conditions (i.e. rates coming down a bit) would alleviate some uncertainty and make it easier or less alarming to raise more capital. But i don't know how they will get to 2026 w/o either raising more capital through stock issuance or going to the private market. The thing that gives me comfort is that Amazon still owns 17% so still has an interest to protect their investment.

 

[Florida Panhandler]

Rivian may have to seek a buyer at this point. Interest rates are likely at their high point this cycle and thus a terrible time to borrow capital. Which means perhaps some sort of partner is the better option.

Apple as. a partner/owner seems to be a favorite when this conversation comes up due to Apple’s continent-sized cash position and Rivian’s now pittance $11bill market cap. However I think the Chinese may be looking at some sort of entry into the US market and BYD’s enormous market cap could make American regulators give large pause. Any Chinese firm might be a no-go as far as approval but then the US Government will feel pressure from numerous sides to make something happen to save Rivian If China is locked out.

issuing more stock is another option of course but at this point Wall Street may not welcome this option and treat the stock accordingly. But something creative has to happen within 2 years because at this rate the Georgia factory will not be up and running before cash runs out.

 

[Gr8Barn]

Unfortunately, Rivian stock will be single digits soon. Most analysts have lost confidence in their ability to execute current plan (see the four downgrades issued today). I hate to say it, but the shutdown in Q2 is more than just retooling, it is based more on slowing demand for EV-SUV's at the $70k+ range. Ford Lightening are dropping prices, Audi eTRON and BMW's are all offering $10-15k in incentives and offering incredible financing rates. RIVN is having trouble clearing lots of R1T's. Hopefully their announcement of the R2 can provide some support for the stock, but given how Wall Street was burned by this quarterly report, I do not see anywhere for this stock to go but down further before it rebounds in 2026. How does this affect current owners? Reduced services and access. The inevitable price reductions will lower the value of your current R1 (look at what happened to Tesla secondary market after their price drops). The best deal for potential Rivian buyers is actually to lease an Rivian for 24 months.

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