CONCERN: RIVN have enough cash to to go beyond 2025 and launch R2?

[dleewla]

i think they'll be ok but they do need to hit targets with regards to Georgia plant build up and need to knock it out of the park with the R2 because competition continues to improve and increase in choice. they can also do more convertible green bond sales. especially with legacy manufacturers scaling back EV production there's lots to be had there.

in the mean time, we may see some price adjustments on the R1 after Rivian does the IL plan shut down in April. that's going to not only simplify architecture and improve production efficiency but likely lower production costs. RJ talked a lot about improving their supplier relationships and getting more aggressive pricing so as cost per unit lowers, they will have more flexibility to lower the price of the R1 if they need a bump in demand.

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[Zoidz]

I know the definition of production car and its 150 units annually...

I'm glad you know the regulatory definition of a production vehicle, but that's not what I was referring to, and I had previously qualified my comment regarding production cars:

No one considers that vehicle a "production car" from a manufacturing perspective so it's a bit of Apples and Oranges when comparing to Rivian.

Regarding who built the Roadster, I'm going by what I recall from years ago, and what Wikipedia says today:

"Tesla, which signed a production contract with Lotus in 2007 to produce "gliders" (complete cars minus electric powertrain) for the Roadster, announced in early 2010 that Roadster production would continue until early 2012. Starting one year prior to the end of the contract, no changes to the order was allowed to give time for tooling changes at Lotus's assembly plant in the UK.

The Roadster is considered an American car though many carry a Vehicle Identification Number beginning with the letter "S", which is the designation for the United Kingdom. Some, however, carry a number starting with "5" appropriate to the US. Parts were sourced from around the world. The body panels came from French supplier Sotira. These were sent from France to Hethel, U.K., where Tesla contracted with Lotus to build the Roadster's unique chassis."

 

[DuoRivians]

What a strange week. The question of survival to R2 is a valid one. At present, I still believe the company has the ability to do it. This isn't the first make it or break it moment, and it certainly could be the last, but I don't think so.

Cost reduction efforts are hugely important right now, it could mean the difference between 6 quarters of cash and 10 quarters of cash. I think that when they get to the other side of the crunch we will have something pretty special to purchase (R2), and I think it will be mostly unique in the market as an actually available and actually affordable non-car EV.

There is so much power in the press, and so much negative sentiment these days. There are very strong market forces making big efforts to ensure EVs are not considered a wise purchase, it amazes me. As a country, the US will either move forward and replant itself as a world leader in this new market, or it won't. Tesla can't be the one and only volume producer, and the legacy car makers want to avoid the costs of meaningful transitions to EV as long as possible. Clearly, a window for success continues to exist for Rivian.

That all said, Rivian needs to be lazer focused on production, costs, and R2. It has the branding already, no need to push that until there is something different to sell. I don't particularly care about their other aspirations unless they help the primary cause. I care very much for the environment, and I'd rather have a Rivian produce EVs in volume over risking that future for less impactful things like charging networks, software stacks, not really autonomous driving, etc. I'd be fine with a 25% reduction in staff, and would try my best to get losses per vehicle to zero by Q3 reporting. The last thing this company wants is to keep high dollar low impact staff and look good until they go bankrupt.

A lot of this was sparked by Rivian’s projection of 57K production in 2024, raising concerns of demand.

Rivian remarked that high interest rates creates a different environment and that Rivian has to adjust and isn’t immune.

Yes, it is the case that the factory shutdown and subsequent build up will reduce total year production. But, the mood from the earnings call suggested that Rivian was intentionally targeting a smaller 57K number because they don’t think they can sell more than that.

 

[Hillbilly]

What's the point of being CONCERNED? Just enjoy the truck or sell it.

I will drive until it falls apart, then I'll rip out the battery pack and find a way to use one in my RV and one in my house.

 

[kizamybute']

Lucid is at $3.00 +/- per share. So, I guess it can still go lower. One day, things will turn back around. Just a year and a half ago, everyone was paying over MSRP to get one. The market is soft right now for ALL cars. The companies that focused on building just the expensive EV's first, like Tesla did too, are now struggling. Tesla is surviving because they have the Model 3 and Model Y that they sell in mass quantities. Lucid and Rivian both need to get to that point. The market for $80,000+ EV's is limited.

 

[Rainman]

Rivian announced the issuance of convertible debt last year (Oct 5, 2023) when the stock was double where it is today ($23 vs. $11.50). The stock tanked and since then, they have burned through almost all of what they issued. You cannot keep issuing debt and halving your stock price AND continue to produce vehicles (at scale) and provide service to the ones you have already sold and not be concerned about the future of the company. As a RIVN fan/owner, I want them to wildly succeed, but laying off 10% of corporate staff isn't going to solve the lacking demand problem for all EV's and the punitive higher interest rates (which their corporate debt is a victim of and now nearing junk levels). They need to incentivize buyers will great offers. They need to deliver on all the early reservation holders ASAP as they have the inventory, they just don't want to lower their average sale price per vehicle. Confidence in RJ is lacking.

well said, and it’s worse than that as there is no scale. Guidance is production numbers will remain the same!!

 

[R1Tom]

A lot of this was sparked by Rivian’s projection of 57K production in 2024, raising concerns of demand.

Rivian remarked that high interest rates creates a different environment and that Rivian has to adjust and isn’t immune.

Yes, it is the case that the factory shutdown and subsequent build up will reduce total year production. But, the mood from the earnings call suggested that Rivian was intentionally targeting a smaller 57K number because they don’t think they can sell more than that.

I am so hopeful they have a plan to get thru this, but this is my most significant concern. And that 57k projection was made before all this news went so badly. Now I fear it just got seriously more difficult to even sell that many units. I can't imagine too many people I know buying one now with this uncertainty of survival.

I don't want Rivian to become a study of mistakes made....but failure to address service and failure to improve initial quality adequately are both contributing to damaged reputation and loss of sales I am sure.

Hopefully they don't cut service center investment and instead push expansion into new areas to open up to more markets. Hopefully the new marketing head really knows her stuff and can undo the damage the last few days has done.

 

[rbrak29]

March 7th Rivian needs to not only reveal the R2, but allay the fears of R1 owners and future buyers (me) of the R1. Rivian needs to keep selling the R1 to pay for the R2.

 

[Rivian Head]

Good points. As a multi-TEsla owner as well, I would say that I really like my R1S (and to some extent, better than Tesla). It would be interesting to see if TSLA were to buy RIVN. I am sure we will see some consolidation int eh EV space as Lucid and Fisker will not make it.

I am looking at Chinese EV market, and you are starting to see the beginning of blood bath as many have been losing tons of money, then BYD started undercutting its competitors’ price. Sounds familiar? The only EV stock worthy of holding now is Tesla, only because of potential monetization of AI driven FSD. When pricing becomes “race to the bottom”, the only the fittest survives albeit badly bruised. It’s not an industry where I would put my money in.

 

[rmalzo]

It is a bit concerning when RJ stuttered and deflected when asked if they will have enough capital/cash to launch the R2 platform and continue to deliver beyond 2025. Postive gross margin is one thing, but cash flow is another. Watch video at 3:50 and then the question asked again at 5:09.

https://cnb.cx/4bZVk6H

They DONT

 

[Robin]

 

[Robin]

I'm more concerned about the drive to the start of the Club bike ride, and back home. Some drivers weave through traffic like it is GTA.
The ride itself has the risk of a fall and a hip fracture. Four guys in our small club have had their hips pinned.

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[White Shadow]

I am looking at Chinese EV market, and you are starting to see the beginning of blood bath as many have been losing tons of money, then BYD started undercutting its competitors’ price. Sounds familiar? The only EV stock worthy of holding now is Tesla, only because of potential monetization of AI driven FSD. When pricing becomes “race to the bottom”, the only the fittest survives albeit badly bruised. It’s not an industry where I would put my money in.

Nio. I'm a shareholder.

 

[Tim-in-CA]

… and just like that, the OP has been banished into the Phantom Zone. If they were so worried about Rivian’s viability, then they should have just sold their truck and stock and moved on…

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