Q3 2024 Production / Delivery Numbers… Not good

[Biturbowned]

Why is everyone so surprised by this ? didn't RJ say months ago to expect a bad Q3 ?

Sure, but the repeated gross profitability by year end is not likely now that they’ve slashed delivery forecast. The bottom line is RIVN will produce and deliver less cars than they did last year. It’s hard to sell a growth story (with associated multiples) when sales are going down.

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[Donald Stanfield]

These vehicles are overpriced and under delivered. My wife’s new Model Y…impresses with self driving functionality and ride quality. At current prices…you could buy a Model y and another ICE truck to actually beat the sh*t out of as a truck.

(3 year Gen 1 owner.)

What does this have to do with the price of tea in China? Your comparison of an utterly unrelated vehicle and then saying you can buy an ICE truck is irrelevant. What other EV truck delivers a better price point and value than the Rivian?

 

[BCan]

It’s obviously your opinion that you think the Model Y quality is better than the Rivian’s, but it’s 180 deg from my experience and most reviewers.

Not what I’m saying.

is the model y more plastic and this luxury - yes (they obviously save costs on something)

will the MY self driving try to kill me every ride home from work - no. My truck does.

if you think these vehicles are worth upwards of 6 figures - I strongly disagree…and so does the market.

 

[TomServo2112]

The R2 release is going to be crucial.

I definitely agree with this, but I'm trying to remember back when the Model Y was released. Seems to me there were a lot more Tesla service centers than there are Rivian SCs and the reviews of Rivian SCs are all over the map - even well-reviewed SCs are booking appointments 2 to 5 months down the line. Now project the release of the R2 when there appear to be few new SCs coming anytime soon. ?

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

It’s obviously your opinion that you think the Model Y quality is better than the Rivian’s, but it’s 180 deg from my experience and most reviewers.

Probably depends on what you mean by quality. Does it mean that the car works, doesn’t break down driving off the lot, drives as it should, etc…. The Y could win there. Does it mean luxury? Rivian crushes it there.

 

[Mister Person]

This is horrendous news. Feels like Rivian is barely holding on and we're close to an earnings restatement or worse, and then the stock gets halted, our R1s are bricked, and we enter a few years of class actions and a shell of a company.

There are plenty of other EV makers that will take up Amazon's demand.

 

[Biturbowned]

Not what I’m saying.

is the model y more plastic and this luxury - yes (they obviously save costs on something)

will the MY self driving try to kill me every ride home from work - no. My truck does.

if you think these vehicles are worth upwards of 6 figures - I strongly disagree…and so does the market.

So you’re comparing version 15+ FSD ($8k) to really early Driver+ with that statement, ok. You also referenced “ride quality” which is just not something the Y does well in at all.

By what metric do you think the Rivian is not a 6 figure car? Find me another vehicle that has this level of onroad and off-road performance at this pricepoint. Then find me one that gets OTAs and is as cheap to run.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

This is horrendous news. Feels like Rivian is barely holding on and we're close to an earnings restatement or worse, and then the stock gets halted, our R1s are bricked, and we enter a few years of class actions and a shell of a company.

There are plenty of other EV makers that will take up Amazon's demand.

Rivian has enough money right now to make it to the R2. That's not even including the VW deal. We are pretty far from a bricked R1 and lawsuits.

 

[waitingonanr1s]

This is horrendous news. Feels like Rivian is barely holding on and we're close to an earnings restatement or worse, and then the stock gets halted, our R1s are bricked, and we enter a few years of class actions and a shell of a company.

There are plenty of other EV makers that will take up Amazon's demand.

A missed delivery forecast does not correlate with an eminent earnings restatement. Good thing Amazon is Rivian's largest stockholder - that and the VW partnership may be the only thing that gets them to the R2 release. They'll get bought or bailed out in some way shape or form before bankruptcy would occur.

 

[DuoRivian]

Reinforcing the demand issue I just got a call from Laguna Beach from Rivian asking if I was aware of the $3500 off for existing owners to upgrade to a 2025 model. Never had any sales calls from them before - they are trying to drum up sales any way they can.

 

[Epicloop]

The R2 needs to be out like yesterday

Sometime in 2026 hopefully, they need to get their QC/service wait times fixed first. They can't afford to be near the bottom of service/QC reputation for another 2 years as the R2 will not solve that issue.
*I have no complaints about the service center in Vancouver

When R2 is out, you will have Model Y refreshed for sale. As well as other good competitors. I do not see R2 as a solution if it comes in 1 year from now.

Estimated sometime 2026, could be 2 years.

Really weak demand right now, though. And I know 99% of you here won’t agree, but the introduction of the $79k CT yesterday will push some buyers that were on the fence towards the CT.

Or towards the RST that has much better hwy/towing range & a recent glowing review from M. Brownlee.

Many are simply waiting for a tri or quad.

How many buyers could there be at that price point especially for the R1T.

The R2 release is going to be crucial.

I think the R3 release is going to be crucial i bet it out sells the R2 3/1, even more crucial is getting the QC and/or wait times in check at those busy SC.

 

[BCan]

So you’re comparing version 15+ FSD ($8k) to really early Driver+ with that statement, ok. You also referenced “ride quality” which is just not something the Y does well in at all.

By what metric do you think the Rivian is not a 6 figure car? Find me another vehicle that has this level of onroad and off-road performance at this pricepoint. Then find me one that gets OTAs and is as cheap to run.

I’ve had my truck three years…when does this drivers+ get better? I was informed Gen1 drivers+ isn’t supported going forward…on this forum.

maybe my 8th visit to the service center takes the shine off the price? You know…the SC where you have an appointment for Monday….and the truck sits in the parking lot until Thursday. Then you get to Uber or rental car around for 2 weeks. Makes me wonder if that’s worth six figures.

Speaking of awesome OTA updates…remember when they bricked all the vehicles with the botched update? I do.

or the last OTA that f’d my rear sensors. I’m numb to this stuff now…but I’ll never pay 100K for this again.

 

[R1TS]

Why is everyone so surprised by this ? didn't RJ say months ago to expect a bad Q3 ?

Where did you see that?
They’ve been clearly guiding the same as last year, which is not the case anymore.

 

[DJFrerichs]

Profitability: if they aren’t selling as many, making a profit gets much harder. They will not be profitable anytime soon.

R2: where are all of the test vehicle sightings? We are approaching one year out from Rivians R2 start of production guidance. Testing should be underway and thus mule vehicles running around in the wild. There have been no sightings that I’m aware of. The R2 is going to be late.

They are..the components are in R1’s from their lab, you just don’t know it has R2 components being tested.

They are..the components are in R1’s from their lab, you just don’t know it has R2 components being tested.

 

[Rividiculous]

I would call it disappointing news but not a reason to panic. Is there any reason to think the drop in production is NOT due to supply shortages?

Offering incentives, etc., strikes me as less a sign of weakness than a sign of marketing. Seems like everyone is always offering a sale of some sort. Tesla’s site today is offering $0 down. The entire auto industry is facing weak demand these days.

I might think differently if I weren’t always looking forward to my next chance to drive my R1S.

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