Q3 2024 Production / Delivery Numbers… Not good

[lovetowait]

What a hot mess.

With a supply disruption to their Enduro drive units it would make sense to scale up EDVs and Dual R1s.

And yet they are starting to push the Tri- and soon Quad Enduros, which will just exacerbate the supply challenges. Yet these will be the most profitable vehicles.

But the company only minimizes loss per vehicle when they increase total production volume, which they just admitted isn't happening.

There will never be enough Tri- and Quad- demand to get them out of this jam, and it could only make the supply constraint worse.

So the only hope is to resolve the supply constraint as soon as possible and push forward on all types of sales.

But it already seems like there's no way to hit their original cost-neutrality-per-vehicle in the 4th quarter.

So why wait to admit that later?

Maybe because they now plan to have a miracle 4th quarter where they sell all their inventory backlog and get tons of revenue! (I can think like a startup!)

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[PaythePiper]

One important perspective missing in this thread - how does Rivian's Q3 Performance compare to the rest of the industry? Answer - They are all down.

Oct 1 (Reuters) - Top U.S. automakers reported a fall in their third-quarter sales on Tuesday, hurt by fewer selling days and weaker consumer spending amid inflationary challenges and higher interest rates.

Carmakers have relied on crossovers and pickup trucks for years to drive the bulk of their sales, but that growth is starting to sputter as customers work with tighter budgets because of economic uncertainties.

General Motors (GM.N) reported a 2.2% fall in quarterly sales, as demand weakened for some of its big pickup trucks such as its best-selling Silverado.

Crosstown rival Ford (F.N) is expected to post weaker sales growth when it reports third-quarter sales on Wednesday, according to data from Cox Automotive.

Toyota reported an 8% fall in sales but said it had built extra inventory of vehicles and parts ahead of the U.S. port strikes, which began earlier in the day, to minimize disruption.

Industry experts expected automakers to rebound with stronger sales in the third quarter but discounts offered by companies were not enough to invigorate demand.

"Consumers in the market continue to be pressured by high interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices, which are translating to high monthly payments," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.

Chrysler-parent Stellantis (STLAM.MI)on Monday cut its 2024 profit forecast and warned it would burn more cash than expected due to weak global demand and competition from Chinese rivals offering cheaper cars.

Tesla rocked the 3rd qtr fyi

 

[Electron]

I’m even talking about a partnership with a Chinese brand- namely Nio or Xpeng. It is clear by now that major Chinese brands are rapidly expanding and driving sales inside China and well beyond… major foreign automakers like Mercedes and Audi are being pushed out by demand. China would represent a huge market for Rivian along with access to the latest battery technology.

This would be devastating. Gotta keep it American. Those CCP EVs are all flash and facade. Poorly implemented stolen IP. QC is terrible and the World doesn't hear about it, due to the highly controlled media. Our MSM is bad too, I get it, but if one opens their mouth there they'll likely get a knock at the door. The last knock they'll ever hear again. The CCP way.

There are a few sources that report the truth in CCP land, but the search algorithm does what it does here to censor those sources.

In short, their EVs are a disaster. Pieces of crap. Literally.

Personally I'd never buy a CCP EV. It's bad enough we have Polestar that slipped through the seams. It ain't Swedish like it used to be.

 

[NY_Rob]

...At this point I am uncertain about the brand surviving, and if not…… then where will all the owners be? Are we going to have unserviceable vehicles? How are we going to get replacement parts? How badly will our vehicles tank in price?

No need to guess about that stuff, just head over to any Fisker forum and read about all the above issues live as the company goes out of business forever right before our eyes. $70K vehicles are selling for $10-20K if they even sell at all. Don't break a windshield... cause there are no replacements, etc.. etc.. etc..

 

[JonW716]

Woah...

I get it's not great news, but this is an over reaction.

They have the cash needed to make it to R2 launch in 2026.

And if they can't make a go of it with R2 they have additional options to raise more cash.

And if things still aren't going well they've built enough of a customer base they will attract buyers.

The brand isn't going anywhere anytime soon, certainly not in 6 months.

Indeed, it may be an over exaggeration, hopefully it is but we will see soon enough..... I don't want to be stuck holding a hot potato down the road worth nothing, I highly doubt the value will go up if they go out. I do love the truck, obviously if I was going to reach into my pocket for the trimax but this is not good news. Going to hold off and see how the number in Q4 look, and possibly Q1 of 25 will be promising (hopefully).

 

[BigSkies]

Rivian has an innate ability to slip on every banana peel laying around. It doesn't really matter if there was a supply-chain challenge, factory reset, market headwinds, EV slow down. They are fighting for their lives.

Fighting for your life is part-and-parcel of a start-up, I get that. The window to get this right is becoming more narrow. Profitibility in Q4 has been the 'mantra' for quite a while. They already know it is or isn't possible, but they have to play the market game.

I'm not sure the R2 is the 'solution'. I think the culture needs to pivot (now) and I'm not sure they can accept that in Normal. We love our Rivian's and to drive them, it is pure joy to both my wife and I. That doesn't blind me to challenges though.

Anyone conjure up a guess of how many trucks they are actually selling?

They reaffirmed delivery guidance, but cut production guidance. That’s a pretty strong sign that it’s a production problem and not a demand problem.

 

[Electron]

No need to guess about that stuff, just head over to any Fisker forum and read about all the above issues live as the company goes out of business forever right before our eyes. $70K vehicles are selling for $10-20K if they even sell at all. Don't break a windshield... cause there are no replacements, etc.. etc.. etc..

If Rivian went down and imploded it could be similar to what happened to Fisker. However, Rivian is so much more than what Fisker ever was.

I foresee Rivian getting bought out by a major company if anything as a worst case scenario. Rivian is a real company, unlike Fisker that didn't even produce their own cars. I personally have very little to no respect for that former brand.

Fisker used Magna-Steyr to make their cars, who also made Jaguars. Yikes. That says it all. ? brand and product.

Rivian has built something solid in such a short period of time and it's quite commendable for such a young company. It's strong in software, motors and other internal strengths that there's real value here for a good buy for a major company if it were to come to that.

 

[NY_Rob]

If Rivian went down and imploded it could be similar to what happened to Fisker. However, Rivian is so much more than what Fisker ever was.

I agree, Fisker was a disaster before it even launched (which they also botched).
For a full year before the first Ocean was ever delivered I started asking "who is going to service these vehicles?" and all the forum fan-boys kept dancing around an answer with rumors and old info to the point where there was not on person on the entire forum who could answer that all important question "who is going to service these vehicles?". Well, FF a year, they launch the Ocean, and gee, guess what... service became in instant nightmare because if you could actually reach someone at Fisker to book an appointment, and the tech actually made it to to your house, after tracking down the issue with your car, they couldn't get the parts to repair your vehicle!

Rivian has had it's fair share of self inflicted wounds, but none as severe as Fisker ever suffered.

 

[Zoidz]

Tesla rocked the 3rd qtr fyi

I guess we have different definitions of "rocked"

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/02/tesla-tsla-q3-2024-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html

Tesla posted its third-quarter vehicle production and deliveries report on Wednesday. The stock fell as much as 3.7% after the report.

Here are the key numbers:

Total deliveries Q3 2024: 462,890

Total production Q3 2024: 469,796

Analysts were expecting deliveries of 463,310 in the period ended Sept. 30, according to estimates compiled by FactSet StreetAccount.

Based on some other estimates, Tesla missed by even more. According to LSEG, analysts on average were expecting deliveries of 469,828 vehicles. An independent researcher widely followed by Tesla fans who publishes as “Troy Teslike” predicted the EV maker would report deliveries of 472,000 in the quarter.

 

[André]

If Rivian went down and imploded it could be similar to what happened to Fisker. However, Rivian is so much more than what Fisker ever was.

I foresee Rivian getting bought out by a major company if anything as a worst case scenario. Rivian is a real company, unlike Fisker that didn't even produce their own cars. I personally have very little to no respect for that former brand.

Fisker used Magna-Steyr to make their cars, who also made Jaguars. Yikes. That says it all.

Rivian has built something solid in such a short period of time and it's quite commendable for such a young company. It's strong in software, motors and other internal strengths that there's real value here for a good buy for a major company if it were to come to that. ? brand and product.

I agree. They are too big to fail. Shareholders would certainly take a hit in a restructuring but they are here to stay.

 

[Electron]

I agree, Fisker was a disaster before it even launched (which they also botched).
For a full year before the first Ocean was ever delivered I started asking "who is going to service these vehicles?" and all the forum fan-boys kept dancing around an answer with rumors and old info to the point where there was not on person on the entire forum who could answer that all important question "who is going to service these vehicles?". Well, FF a year, they launch the Ocean, and gee, guess what... service became in instant nightmare because if you could actually reach someone at Fisker to book an appointment, and the tech actually made it to to your house, after tracking down the issue with your car, they couldn't get the parts to repair your vehicle!

Rivian has had it's fair share of self inflicted wounds, but none as severe as Fisker ever suffered.

You bring up a great example in that Rivian should have taken note and learned from Fiskers lack of service centers and the impact that it had.

I pray that Rivian will get their act together. We love the brand, but the realities have to be faced and dealt with.

Rivian really needs to turn the incentive dial to Max. Redline that sucker and just move units.

I had mentioned in a previous post that moving units to meet numbers with a little profit is far better than not meeting respectable numbers at all and missing the mark.

Now that Rivian conveniently lowered their goal line, if they were to focus on moving units and were to exceed that, it would do great justice in my opinion.

The headlines will read/hit the same, which is the impression that matters in it's own psychological way.

"Rivian exceeds its delivery numbers for Q4 and in profit."

Even if it's a small profit, that's way better than coming up short all around.

Come on Rivian! Do something. Please.

 

[Electron]

I agree. They are too big to fail. Shareholders would certainly take a hit in a restructuring but they are here to stay.

Oops BTW the "? brand and product," was meant to go in the paragraph above referring to Jaguar.

I quickly edited it when in had realized what had happened. Phew, typing from a phone sometimes does weird things with formatting.

Anyhow, Rivian still has some time to turn things around. Rooting for them. First line of order, crazy incentives. Just do it Rivian!

 

[Electron]

I guess we have different definitions of "rocked"

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/02/tesla-tsla-q3-2024-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html

Tesla posted its third-quarter vehicle production and deliveries report on Wednesday. The stock fell as much as 3.7% after the report.

Here are the key numbers:

Total deliveries Q3 2024: 462,890

Total production Q3 2024: 469,796

Analysts were expecting deliveries of 463,310 in the period ended Sept. 30, according to estimates compiled by FactSet StreetAccount.

Based on some other estimates, Tesla missed by even more. According to LSEG, analysts on average were expecting deliveries of 469,828 vehicles. An independent researcher widely followed by Tesla fans who publishes as “Troy Teslike” predicted the EV maker would report deliveries of 472,000 in the quarter.

To Tesla's credit those are monster numbers even so and a better problem to have than the challenges Rivian is up against.

Rivian has serious issues wondering if there will be food on the table vs Tesla dealing with first world problems respectively.

 

[derekmw]

I’m surprised how many posts are in this thread comparing Tesla quality and tesla service centers.

I’ve owned many teslas since 2015. 2015 Model S had many issues, I had so many loaners (at this point there were very few Teslas around so you were usually guaranteed a Tesla loaner). Service was great though. Only a few customers getting serviced. The so called autopilot was fun but dangerous.

come around owning several models later, quality somewhat improved but by then, there were so many teslas but tesla didn’t bother to expand service centers at pace and they were overcrowded, treated you like cattle when you came in, and it would sit for weeks before getting worked on, all while you either got some crummy ICE rental from enterprise or had to use Uber everywhere.
Autopilot still did crazy things and so did FSD, so much so that my wife banned me from ever using it if she was in the car.

By the time I was onto my fourth/fifth Tesla, both quality improved and service center issues were resolved mostly. Still treated like cattle but I was happy to get the car in and out and also get Tesla as a rental again.
oh and autopilot and FSD still sucks and my wife still hates it.

so then you have people in this thread saying how terrible the service center is and how much Tesla is doing better at it. It wasn’t always the case. And I know others feel differently but I still don’t like the autopilot or fsd much in our Tesla. But neither do I like Rivian’s Driver+ either.

but what I will say is that after owning five Teslas, 1 Toyota EV, 1 Nissan EV, 1 Chevy EV, nothing comes close to the joy I get driving my R1T. I absolutely love it. I love it so much that I am on my second Rivian ownership now. Nor have I had any terrible experiences at the service center - just long waits once more Rivians were on the road…I wasn't happy but wasn’t surprised after experiencing the same growing pains Tesla went through initially.

 

[Electron]

I’m surprised how many posts are in this thread comparing Tesla quality and tesla service centers.

I’ve owned many teslas since 2015. 2015 Model S had many issues, I had so many loaners (at this point there were very few Teslas around so you were usually guaranteed a Tesla loaner). Service was great though. Only a few customers getting serviced. The so called autopilot was fun but dangerous.

come around owning several models later, quality somewhat improved but by then, there were so many teslas but tesla didn’t bother to expand service centers at pace and they were overcrowded, treated you like cattle when you came in, and it would sit for weeks before getting worked on, all while you either got some crummy ICE rental from enterprise or had to use Uber everywhere.
Autopilot still did crazy things and so did FSD, so much so that my wife banned me from ever using it if she was in the car.

By the time I was onto my fourth/fifth Tesla, both quality improved and service center issues were resolved mostly. Still treated like cattle but I was happy to get the car in and out and also get Tesla as a rental again.
oh and autopilot and FSD still sucks and my wife still hates it.

so then you have people in this thread saying how terrible the service center is and how much Tesla is doing better at it. It wasn’t always the case. And I know others feel differently but I still don’t like the autopilot or fsd much in our Tesla. But neither do I like Rivian’s Driver+ either.

but what I will say is that after owning five Teslas, 1 Toyota EV, 1 Nissan EV, 1 Chevy EV, nothing comes close to the joy I get driving my R1T. I absolutely love it. I love it so much that I am on my second Rivian ownership now. Nor have I had any terrible experiences at the service center - just long waits once more Rivians were on the road…I wasn't happy but wasn’t surprised after experiencing the same growing pains Tesla went through initially.

It's a YMMV type of thing for sure. I'm a first gen Tesla owner myself, with many since then and have experienced the evolutionary process of Tesla. Not all service centers are created equal, but I've had great experiences with my locations and have always got a loaner. (A Tesla not an ICE loaner.)

FSD and Autopilot, let alone the whole software is miles ahead vs Rivian. Tesla is much more polished and refined. Rivian is 2nd, but not a close 2nd by any means. They have a ways to go.

Rivian has a lot going for it and has a lot of strengths for being so young, which makes the flagship R1x line so great in their own way.

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