Q3 2024 Production / Delivery Numbers… Not good

[Philip]

Produced: 13,157
Delivered: 10,018

Full year guidance reduced to 47,000 to 49,000. (57,000 originally guided)

Full year guidance suggests Rivian expects in Q4:
- 10K-13K production
- 13K-15K delivery

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Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) today announced production and delivery totals for the quarter ending September 30, 2024. The company produced 13,157 vehicles at its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois and delivered 10,018 vehicles during the same period.

Rivian is experiencing a production disruption due to a shortage of a shared component on the R1 and RCV platforms. This supply shortage impact began in Q3 of this year, has become more acute in recent weeks and continues. As a result of the supply shortage, Rivian is revising its annual production guidance to be between 47,000 and 49,000 vehicles. The company is also reaffirming its annual delivery outlook of low single digit growth as compared to 2023, which it expects to be in a range of 50,500 to 52,000 vehicles.

Not sure why supply chain shortage but having worked in manufacturing plant the supply manager is responsible for keeping up with the required parts necessary for continued flow of production. Not impressed.
Rivian has faced many issues but it seems like they should have been corrected by now.
When you can't meet the demand or remove any rumors then future customers are turned away as customers and stock holders in this volatile field.

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[BCan]

Your post above is a bit hyperbolic. Here is why I say this:
Had my R1 about the same time as you and driver+ has gotten better over that time, albiet from terrible to just moderately bad. If fairness though most ADAS systems come as part of a technology package that costs a few $1K-4K extra and are on par or barely better than Driver+. Driver+ is standard and free so I give Rivian some slack on this. Also Rivian never said Gen 1+ would cease to improve only that gen 2 is capable of a higher level of autonomy and at some point they would diverge in capability.

I can't speak to your service history but mine has been fantastic.

No OTA has ever bricked either of my R1's so your statement above is false, furthermore I believe you know it's falls which makes it a lie.

Maybe Rivian has a demand problem, maybe it will turn out to be severe and persistent, maybe they will go bankrupt and meet some ugly demise. Fine have that opinion but unconstructive criticism only perpetuates demand struggles.

If I disliked my R1 that much and thought the company was doomed I'd have mine listed for sale right now before the bottom drops out.

If you're NOT doing this then it tells me either we're only hearing half your story or you're illogical.

Rivian absolutely did send out an OTA that bricked my vehicle…search the forums. calling me a liar proves you don’t follow Rivian…so pound sand.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

I’m surprised how many posts are in this thread comparing Tesla quality and tesla service centers.

I’ve owned many teslas since 2015. 2015 Model S had many issues, I had so many loaners (at this point there were very few Teslas around so you were usually guaranteed a Tesla loaner). Service was great though. Only a few customers getting serviced. The so called autopilot was fun but dangerous.

come around owning several models later, quality somewhat improved but by then, there were so many teslas but tesla didn’t bother to expand service centers at pace and they were overcrowded, treated you like cattle when you came in, and it would sit for weeks before getting worked on, all while you either got some crummy ICE rental from enterprise or had to use Uber everywhere.
Autopilot still did crazy things and so did FSD, so much so that my wife banned me from ever using it if she was in the car.

By the time I was onto my fourth/fifth Tesla, both quality improved and service center issues were resolved mostly. Still treated like cattle but I was happy to get the car in and out and also get Tesla as a rental again.
oh and autopilot and FSD still sucks and my wife still hates it.

so then you have people in this thread saying how terrible the service center is and how much Tesla is doing better at it. It wasn’t always the case. And I know others feel differently but I still don’t like the autopilot or fsd much in our Tesla. But neither do I like Rivian’s Driver+ either.

but what I will say is that after owning five Teslas, 1 Toyota EV, 1 Nissan EV, 1 Chevy EV, nothing comes close to the joy I get driving my R1T. I absolutely love it. I love it so much that I am on my second Rivian ownership now. Nor have I had any terrible experiences at the service center - just long waits once more Rivians were on the road…I wasn't happy but wasn’t surprised after experiencing the same growing pains Tesla went through initially.

Damn man, you cycle through a lot of cars!

 

[derekmw]

Damn man, you cycle through a lot of cars!

Haha yes, I don't like losing money on cars. So either I had cars as leases through business, or when purchased, I would sell before I lose money on it - timing was everything. My last R1T was purchased with pre-order pricing, and sold it before it tanked in value and I could break even. I didn't sell because I didn't like it, just didn't want to lose on it. So once these new lease deals came up, I couldn't resist.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

Haha yes, I don't like losing money on cars. So either I had cars as leases through business, or when purchased, I would sell before I lose money on it - timing was everything. My last R1T was purchased with pre-order pricing, and sold it before it tanked in value and I could break even. I didn't sell because I didn't like it, just didn't want to lose on it. So once these new lease deals came up, I couldn't resist.

I have to say that leasing through a business is one of the best ways to stop throwing money away on cars.

 

[Trandall]

Rivian absolutely did send out an OTA that bricked my vehicle…search the forums. calling me a liar proves you don’t follow Rivian…so pound sand.

You said :

Speaking of awesome OTA updates…remember when they bricked all the vehicles with the botched update? I do.

This is patently false. Rivian has never sent an OTA update that bricked all the vehicles. Not even close. I'm not saying that OTA has never bricked a single vehicle.
I've been on this forum long enough that one could read every single new post. Not saying I know everything about Rivian, I obviously don't. I do know enough that your statement above is not only technically untrue but also untrue even remotely. You may not be aware of how untrue it is so I sincerely apologize for characterizing it as a lie.

The event I assume you are referring to for starters had not been released to anywhere near the entire fleet. Of Those it was released to most were not fully bricked. My understanding is that all including those that were effectively bricked were restored to normal operation within a few days or less. Either way it was a bad look for Rivian (to your point). Also to my point no need to exaggerate to the point of untruth to make a point.

 

[White Shadow]

When R2 is out, you will have Model Y refreshed for sale. As well as other good competitors. I do not see R2 as a solution if it comes in 1 year from now.

Model Y really isn't going to compete with the R2. Although similar in size, they are very different vehicles that will appeal to different bases.

 

[White Shadow]

It seems like so many of Rivian's problems could be solved if they started licensing dealership franchises. They could produce to dealer inventory, quickly expand their service capability, and add locations in places they will never be able to do in years if they stick with the direct sales model.

I know many people say they hate dealerships, but they really do serve a viable purpose for manufacturers. And I would argue the dealer service model is superior to what Rivian is offering directly. Significantly superior, in fact.

I bet they could add hundreds of dealers very quickly, and even get some much needed positive cash flow from selling them.

That would just add cost for the buyer and lower profits for Rivian. Middle men don't work for free.

 

[White Shadow]

Sorry, premium SUV. Thought people in the *Rivian* forum would know I don't think it outsells the Rav 4.

Let's be honest....the R1S doesn't outsell the vast majority of SUVs available today from any of the mainstream auto manufacturers. But it might outsell some of the more niche SUVs. Maybe.

 

[shap]

Model Y really isn't going to compete with the R2. Although similar in size, they are very different vehicles that will appeal to different bases.

I see your point, but I think many people will cross-shop. I have R1T and never off-road. So while off-roading may be appealing to some, many do not really care. Model Y is projected to be a real hit, with great tech. Time will show.

 

[evguy]

Let's be honest....the R1S doesn't outsell the vast majority of SUVs available today from any of the mainstream auto manufacturers. But it might outsell some of the more niche SUVs. Maybe.

In Q2 2024, the R1S was the best selling large SUV in California, outperforming the following vehicles you may have heard of: Chevy Suburban/Tahoe, GMC Yukon, Lexus TX, Cadillac Escalade, Mercedes GLS and LR Range Rover.

 

[White Shadow]

I see your point, but I think many people will cross-shop. I have R1T and never off-road. So while off-roading may be appealing to some, many do not really care. Model Y is projected to be a real hit, with great tech. Time will show.

Some will, but I think most won't. The vehicles are so very different. I'd never consider a Model Y, but I'd definitely consider an R2.

In Q2 2024, the R1S was the best selling large SUV in California, outperforming the following vehicles you may have heard of: Chevy Suburban/Tahoe, GMC Yukon, Lexus TX, Cadillac Escalade, Mercedes GLS and LR Range Rover.

Well, it's a good thing that California is just one out of 50 states then, huh? How did the R1S do in the other 49 states?

Rivian didn't quite make this list:
https://www.kbb.com/best-cars/most-popular-suvs/

 

[DD4ST]

By what metric do you think the Rivian is not a 6 figure car? Find me another vehicle that has this level of onroad and off-road performance at this pricepoint. Then find me one that gets OTAs and is as cheap to run.

Quality control. Too many issues with fit/finish, supply chain, reliability (i.e., cameras and PTC), etc. Not even close to BMW, Audi, Mercedes, not to mention non-luxury brands like Kia, Ford, and GMC. People spending this kind of money expect perfection, or close to it.

 

[RivianPVE]

Quality control. Too many issues with fit/finish, supply chain, reliability (i.e., cameras and PTC), etc. Not even close to BMW, Audi, Mercedes, not to mention non-luxury brands like Kia, Ford, and GMC. People spending this kind of money expect perfection, or close to it.

Agreed. Also, I’ve never owned a 100k vehicle where when you try to make a service appointment at the nearest SC (El Segundo), it says “unavailable.”?

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