? Update from RJ on production & deliveries -- via email letter 12/28/21

[TXR1S]

My biggest surprise in RJ email was that only 20% of pre-orders were Max Pack. Was the additional $10K a deterrent? Majority thinks this is not a good value for extra capacity? ...or most just don't need the additional capacity?

only 50% of the 2 models even have an option for max pack (not configurable on R1S) so this is actually around a 40% take rate.

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[ads75]

Hey I was wondering if anyone in the North East, Greater NYC, Philadelphia area, got a time line on an R1T, Adventure, with the large battery, who preordered in late 2020.

I had a Max pack Adventure configured and got the "First half 2023" message. I have since changed to Large pack, and am wondering what kind of impact that could have on the delivery date.

I am also near Philly, although closer to Reading, Sep 21 order, R1T Adventure, Large battery, not max, Oct 22-Dec 22, which is kind of what I was expecting when I ordered. I hope those dates are right, but Q1 2023 wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Max]

My biggest surprise in RJ email was that only 20% of pre-orders were Max Pack. Was the additional $10K a deterrent? Majority thinks this is not a good value for extra capacity? ...or most just don't need the additional capacity?

My most frequent long distance traveling that is at most 3 times a year is 300 miles with a 30+ minute stop at mile 190. Large pack puts me at lower SOC when I make that stop which is what I want when I charge. If I make any other long distance trip, 200 miles is usually a good time for me to stop. Max pack has more cells and that increases the chance of a cell failure in the pack. It increases the weight, it increases the cost for not much real life benefit (most days I don’t drive, typical drive during weekends is 10-100 miles round trip). By the time battery warranty runs out there will likely be higher density batteries at lower cost to replace it. If replacement cost too much, there are always other options.

 

[MoreTrout]

I see quite a few comments in this thread of 2021 orders that are dropping their max pack with the expectation they are going to get a large pack in 2022. So far, all Rivian has promised is to contact those max pack preorder holders from 2018 and 2019 to see how many of them would be interested in getting a large pack in 2022. Furthermore, just about all of the 2021 large pack orders are getting the generic Oct-Dec 2022 timeline. Call it optimism, but I'm beginning to consider it wishful thinking that will result in massive disappointment for quite a few of them. Don't know how many will do it, but for every 18-19 max pack order that elects to downgrade, that is likely one more 2020-21 large pack order that will shift from Oct-Dec 2022 to early 2023. I'm a Mar 2020 max pack order, and until they make a clear statement that I can get a large pack by the end of 2022, I'm not changing anything. I don't think that will happen at least until they get through the Jan "reaching out to 2018-19 max pack orders to downgrade". If they promise it, then I might consider bumping one of the 2021 order holders here out of their current "Oct-Dec 2022" window into 2023

 

[Zoidz]

I see quite a few comments in this thread of 2021 orders that are dropping their max pack with the expectation they are going to get a large pack in 2022. So far, all Rivian has promised is to contact those max pack preorder holders from 2018 and 2019 to see how many of them would be interested in getting a large pack in 2022. Furthermore, just about all of the 2021 large pack orders are getting the generic Oct-Dec 2022 timeline. Call it optimism, but I'm beginning to consider it wishful thinking that will result in massive disappointment for quite a few of them. Don't know how many will do it, but for every 18-19 max pack order that elects to downgrade, that is likely one more 2020-21 large pack order that will shift from Oct-Dec 2022 to early 2023. I'm a Mar 2020 max pack order, and until they make a clear statement that I can get a large pack by the end of 2022, I'm not changing anything. I don't think that will happen at least until they get through the Jan "reaching out to 2018-19 max pack orders to downgrade". If they promise it, then I might consider bumping one of the 2021 order holders here out of their current "Oct-Dec 2022" window into 2023

Or is it going to be net neutral? 20% of the orders were max pack per RJ. Not all will downgrade to large pack. It's estimated (based on Tesla history) that there will be a ~20% cancel rate. Will the cancel rate and the downgrade rate effectively nullify each other, therefore not significantly affecting anyone's position? ?

FWIW, on Facebook, I feel like I see a lot more people saying they are pissed and are going to cancel. I think we are the fanatics here ? with a higher level of dedication or tolerance to hanging in there, compared to many of the Facebook groups members?

 

[WylieD]

I'm of two minds.

A first-half 2023 delivery estimate for my R1S Explore seems a long, long way off. And I had been planning on the Max Pack, once that became an option for the R1S. So maybe even a longer delay.

There are pluses: More drivers and time mean more problems identified and fixed. Supply-chain improvements could lead to things like better res on the forward camera. And by 2023, the high-speed charging infrastructure, both Rivian's and third-party, should be much improved, particularly if Tesla opens their stations to other manufacturers. Maybe I won't need the Max Pack. Saving the weight, the wait, and the $10k would be nice.

For those of us who have no interest in a truck, the R1S is the only game in town. (Current Hummer EV SUV delivery estimates are 2023-2024, and the thing is way too wide.) So glass-half-full is what I'll go with.

 

[lostpacket]

My most frequent long distance traveling that is at most 3 times a year is 300 miles with a 30+ minute stop at mile 190. Large pack puts me at lower SOC when I make that stop which is what I want when I charge. If I make any other long distance trip, 200 miles is usually a good time for me to stop. Max pack has more cells and that increases the chance of a cell failure in the pack. It increases the weight, it increases the cost for not much real life benefit (most days I don’t drive, typical drive during weekends is 10-100 miles round trip). By the time battery warranty runs out there will likely be higher density batteries at lower cost to replace it. If replacement cost too much, there are always other options.

You may want to have a look at the spreadsheet of delivery window data the mods at r/rivian have collected on reddit today.



For Adventure/Large/R1T Folks with pre-order dates before about 5/1/21 are getting generally the July - September 2022 window, and those after about 5/1/21 are getting October-December 2022. At least that is the general trend I am seeing. I found it easiest to make a copy and create a filter view and exclude Explore, Max, and R1S so I could see how things were grouping.

Personally it feels really unlikely to me that Rivian would not account for the fact that some folks were going to switch -- especially considering they are planning on asking some folks if they want to switch.

 

[RWerksman]

My biggest surprise in RJ email was that only 20% of pre-orders were Max Pack. Was the additional $10K a deterrent? Majority thinks this is not a good value for extra capacity? ...or most just don't need the additional capacity?

For me, it was a combination of the cost + the virtual certainty of a (much) later delivery date. If It would have been available from day 1, I would have opted for it.

 

[GaryL]

The other thing that came into play was the LE being one and done. You could order a LE with large pack and switch to Adventure /Max Pack at any time but couldn't go from Adventure /Max Pack to LE. I think there was a sizable % that ordered LE who were planning to go Max Pack when the deadline approached. I know I was seriously considering that especially with the range hit of the 20" tires.

 

[DuckTruck]

For me, it was a combination of the cost + the virtual certainty of a (much) later delivery date. If It would have been available from day 1, I would have opted for it.

For me, the Max Pack was a bit of overkill and extra weight I don’t want or need. On top of that, the $10,000 was a deterrent as well. There will always be those times that range anxiety will hit me, but I can live with that. Like most, the vast majority of my charging will take place at home and range will never be an issue. For those long road trips, I believe charging stations will be as ubiquitous as gas stations in the near future. While they won't be as plentiful, I believe they'll be in enough locations to allow anxiety-free movement about the country.

 

[DuckTruck]

The other thing that came into play was the LE being one and done. You could order a LE with large pack and switch to Adventure /Max Pack at any time but couldn't go from Adventure /Max Pack to LE. I think there was a sizable % that ordered LE who were planning to go Max Pack when the deadline approached. I know I was seriously considering that especially with the range hit of the 20" tires.

Well stated. Now I remember others early on referencing that they could always give up the L.E. for something else, but would not be able to go back or switch to the L.E.

 

[MountainBikeDude]

Nope, shouldn't have deleted it.

Should've let it fly!

Well I can't say I didn't see this coming, but I can say I didn't think it would hurt this much.

I had multiple preorders because I knew this would happen.

Now I'm just pissed cause I could've had a LE R1T which would've been better for resale/trade come Max Pack time. Rivian stuck it in hard, but broke it off harder. Oh so smart I am, but not smart enough to have just "known" this would happened and just snatched up a LE. At least Lucid delivered the Uber models first... Rivian, you're letting down your most devout of preorders holders (Max Packers).

Looks like I'm gonna play the game of range roulette again for about 18 months and then dumped my (not so) large pack R1T considering tons of other people are going to be waiting for them (now that I'm sure of) and then I'll get a Max Pack when I've seen the bugs get flushed out and my second order placement is up.

Wonder what happens if you pass on your delivery window, will Rivian CS keep asking you if you want a EV or will they determine when you get one because you passed?

Wonder how that'll all work?

nah, it was a disjointed rant about how butt hurt I am perpetually waiting for the next shoe to drop.

I dunno what i'll do. I want the longer range, but what will happen come 2023? Are we going to get a follow up email explaining how they are introducing the Crossover which will need production resources, and now max pack has been delayed indefinitely.

And to your point, it would have been far better to go launch edition hold it till max pack can be delivered and then trade it in. But who knew it would go like this?

 

[E.S.]

I dunno what i'll do. I want the longer range, but what will happen come 2023? Are we going to get a follow up email explaining how they are introducing the Crossover which will need production resources, and now max pack has been delayed indefinitely.

Whoa, WHOA!! there buddy. What's with that negativity? How about cross that bridge IF you get there. Your anxiety won't change if you think doom and gloom from the get go.

 

[Bigeasy70075]

I am Concerned overall with the timing of deliveries. The way this is playing out it seems that Rivian will only be able to Produce 70,000 Vehicles over the next 2 years. That's a not surprising but much slower ramp than they had anticipated.

 

[Craigins]

I am Concerned overall with the timing of deliveries. The way this is playing out it seems that Rivian will only be able to Produce 70,000 Vehicles over the next 2 years. That's a not surprising but much slower ramp than they had anticipated.

how is it that much slower? In the S-1 they expect to hit max production rate of 65k vehicles per year at the end of 2023. Assuming they hit the weekly equivalent of 65k per year the last week of 2023, the numbers are as expected. Probably a 25k/45k split between 2022/2023.

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