? Update from RJ on production & deliveries -- via email letter 12/28/21

[SlaterGS]

What are you basing that belief on? The $10k price tag has an awful lot to do with people's decisions.

The numbers ARE skewed towards the Large pack simply because it is not even a selectable option for the R1S at this time.
To what degree that skews the numbers? We don't truly know.

These aren't true numbers but let's look at what this could possibly mean with some over simplified data.

If preorders are split 50/50 between R1T/R1S and total orders are 50k (again made up numbers), then that would be 25k of each vehicle.​

Rivian said 20% (actual percentage) of preorders are the Max pack. So 10k max pack orders.​

However that only can truly apply to the 25k R1T's as Max pack is not selectable for the R1S.​

So 40% of R1T orders have a Max pack configured, in this hypothetical scenario.​

That leads me to believe that the $10k price tag is not as big of a deal as we may think.
I'd also venture to guess that the R1S would have a higher percentage than the R1T for Max pack orders, but that's just a guess.

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[rapPayne]

Just chatted with CeCe of Rivian. The time estimates are NOT on rivian.com yet. There is no ETA on the ETAs (LOL!). So don't go looking for your personal ETA yet. Sigh.

 

[Diddy123]

Just chatted with CeCe of Rivian. The time estimates are NOT on rivian.com yet. There is no ETA on the ETAs (LOL!). So don't go looking for your personal ETA yet. Sigh.

This is Rivian we're talking about here. "Early 2022" really means late 2022, or early 2023, if ever.

Timelines and Rivian do not mesh well together, unfortunately.

 

[Autolycus]

The numbers ARE skewed towards the Large pack simply because it is not even a selectable option for the R1S at this time.
To what degree that skews the numbers? We don't truly know.

These aren't true numbers but let's look at what this could possibly mean with some over simplified data.
If preorders are split 50/50 between R1T/R1S and total orders are 50k (again made up numbers), then that would be 25k of each vehicle.
Rivian said 20% (correct if I got the wrong number but I think this one is actual) of preorders are the Max pack. So 10k max pack orders.
However that only can truly apply to the 25k R1T's as Max pack is not selectable for the R1S.
So 40% of R1T orders have a Max pack configured.
That leads me to believe that the $10k price tag is not as big of a deal as we may think.

You're making a big, and potentially critical assumption that RJ was referring to 20% of ALL orders, rather than specifically 20% of R1T orders. As you note, Max pack isn't an option for an R1S order, so it's not relevant to talk about the take rate on a Max pack R1S. In the context of the email, it is not unreasonable to infer that RJ is just talking about 20% of the R1T orders. It is, obviously, also not unreasonable to infer that he's talking about 20% of all orders, as you have done. It is, simply, not clear enough to read anything into.

But regardless of the numbers, there's no way at all to reasonably infer anything about why someone is picking option A vs. option B based just on what % of people are picking option A. It's especially strange, IMO, to take the leap that 40% of people having selected an option must show that the option is the favored one.

 

[poldim]

Just chatted with CeCe of Rivian. The time estimates are NOT on rivian.com yet. There is no ETA on the ETAs (LOL!). So don't go looking for your personal ETA yet. Sigh.

I just chatted with CS an hour ago and they gave me my ETA of first half of 23...

 

[SlaterGS]

You're making a big, and potentially critical assumption that RJ was referring to 20% of ALL orders, rather than specifically 20% of R1T orders.

Not a stretch considering the context within the given sentence:

As of December 15, we had approximately 71,000 preorders for the R1T and R1S in the US and Canada, with the large majority having configured an Adventure Package with a Large pack battery (our Max pack represents approximately 20% of our preorders).​

And yes, my assumption was just that, an assumption (as is yours).

But regardless of the numbers, there's no way at all to reasonably infer anything about why someone is picking option A vs. option B based just on what % of people are picking option A. It's especially strange, IMO, to take the leap that 40% of people having selected an option must show that the option is the favored one.

The LEAP is not very difficult to make considering A. we're talking a premium priced vehicle whereas most people ordering will not be turned away at the potential benefit of paying the extra $$ for more range B. we're talking about electric where at this point in time, range is seen as king for many new EV purchasers, especially those more rural and C. the R1S is more likely to be a family hauler/trip maker for those with kids and the extra miles per charge will be greatly valued.
Those points don't feel like much of a stretch to say that 40% of R1S buyers would choose the Max pack if it was available in a reasonable timeframe, but that is my opinion.

And why not make assumptions for the sake of conversation? Clearly you disagree and that is great!

 

[paariv]

You're making a big, and potentially critical assumption that RJ was referring to 20% of ALL orders, rather than specifically 20% of R1T orders. As you note, Max pack isn't an option for an R1S order, so it's not relevant to talk about the take rate on a Max pack R1S. In the context of the email, it is not unreasonable to infer that RJ is just talking about 20% of the R1T orders. It is, obviously, also not unreasonable to infer that he's talking about 20% of all orders, as you have done. It is, simply, not clear enough to read anything into.

If you look at the results of the survey on delivery dates, 10% of total orders (both R1S and R1T) are for max pack. The survery is roughly 50/50 R1S:R1T, so that would indicate about 20% of R1T orders are max pack, if (and it's a big if) those proportions are representative of the whole population.

I'm inclined to think RJ was referring to R1T only with the 20% figure. In any event, it'd be surprising for them to have 40% of their preorders for a max pack product that's so far off in the future when large packs are being delivered now.

 

[Craigins]

If you look at the results of the survey on delivery dates, 10% of total orders (both R1S and R1T) are for max pack. The survery is roughly 50/50 R1S:R1T, so that would indicate about 20% of R1T orders are max pack, if (and it's a big if) those proportions are representative of the whole population.

I'm inclined to think RJ was referring to R1T only with the 20% figure. In any event, it'd be surprising for them to have 40% of their preorders for a max pack product that's so far off in the future when large packs are being delivered now.

This is slightly skewed. We didn't get as many non LE responses as I would have expected.

But this drives the max-pack question even further. Many people wanted the Launch Edition, which does not allow for Max pack. If Max Pack was available for LE would more people have the max pack?

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