Stock price prediction upon release of the R2?

[Time2Roll]

Boy did you take a wrong turn. Let's start again. You commented that if gas prices rise, it will turn people towards EVs. I said that higher gas prices is a stupid reason to switch from ICE to EV. Why? Because it doesn't make sense financially. This was generally what we were talking about. As for you and your vehicle, it doesn't matter if you are saving money on fuel. Buying an expensive EV to save money on gas isn't a smart financial decision. The math simply doesn't math. If you can't figure that out for yourself, then nothing I can say will help you. But you and I both know that you didn't buy an EV to save money.

EV will save money on fuel in most cases. Although you are correct the fuel saving will not pay for the vehicle. Although the fuel saving may pay for the marginal cost difference.

If all you want to do is save money then a person should still be driving their first car.

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[mitchman]

If you listen to Warren Buffet, we are headed for a major market correction. Coupled with the national debt and current administration roadblocks on clean energy (more than road blocks, actual undoing) and much more, it is getting tougher for Rivian…the R2 will help, but the headwinds are category 5. My fingers are crossed we make it to 2029.

 

[emoore]

If you listen to Warren Buffet, we are headed for a major market correction. Coupled with the national debt and current administration roadblocks on clean energy (more than road blocks, actual undoing) and much more, it is getting tougher for Rivian…the R2 will help, but the headwinds are category 5. My fingers are crossed we make it to 2029.

Huge Warren Buffet fan but he has no idea if we are headed for a market correction or not. Nobody does. That's exactly why Buffet suggests people put their money in low cost index funds. Will beat actively managed portfolios over 90% of the time.

 

[BigSkies]

It rarely makes sense to switch from gas to electric for fuel cost savings. The math just doesn't really support it in the vast majority of situations.

Most people don't care with oil at ~$60 per barrel. Most people will care a lot if oil goes back over $100 per barrel.

It's a cyclical market, and we'll see those types of extreme's again someday.

 

[CharonPDX]

End of trading on day of first customer delivery: $723.93

(Either this post will be treated as a silly goof, or I will be considered a Nostradamus genius, in which case I will remove this bit.)

 

[Time2Roll]

Huge Warren Buffet fan but he has no idea if we are headed for a market correction or not. Nobody does. That's exactly why Buffet suggests people put their money in low cost index funds. Will beat actively managed portfolios over 90% of the time.

I find the older the pundit the more they call for the big crash or some other financial disaster.
Nobody really knows the future.

 

[Gen(R3)Xer]

The current market cap at ~$13/share is roughly $16B. If $50/share that would put the market cap at $61B. About the same as Ford (~$52B) and GM (~$64B) with portfolio of products much greater than Rivian.

When investing, one must get rid of emotional attachment to any company and look at the real growth potential. Not a hope and a prayer.

So ask yourself, if you truly believe Rivian will be on par with F and GM once a single EV product is released.

Tesla did it with the Model 3 and then again with the Model Y. I realize they had almost no competition and went through production hell, but Rivian could do that too if they wanted to. They might even attract Tesla’s engineering talent as they grow and Elon keeps making low-production EVs that no one can afford (CyberTruck and Roadster).

 

[mkg3]

Tesla did it with the Model 3 and then again with the Model Y. I realize they had almost no competition and went through production hell, but Rivian could do that too if they wanted to. They might even attract Tesla’s engineering talent as they grow and Elon keeps making low-production EVs that no one can afford (CyberTruck and Roadster).

Rivian can do what too? To produce and sell the same quantities of R2 and R3 as much as Model 3 and Y? Highly unlikely in today's environment. The public sentiment on EV is down, more competitions/alternative options, and production capacity limitations even with GA plant in 2028.

As a long time Tesla shareholder (my current cost basis in ~$17/share) I have lived through all the ups and downs of $TSLA. The shares increased in anticipation of Model 3 delivery start and when it did, actually dropped. The same is likely to happen with $RIVN once the start of delivery date is announced, then sell on the news, when it actually delivers. The Tesla shares oscillated for several reasons thereafter - delivery miss, then EV credit expiring for exceeding 200,000 vehicles and so on. It did not take off until they announced the China factory.

Cybertruck sells more than one is led to believe. Still outsells R1T and probably Model S and X combined. I see new CT with paper plates all the time. No it is definitely not a volume vehicle and I expect it to quietly disappear at some point.

As for the Roadster 2.0, I would have bought one but got tired of waiting (there is a rumor that there will be a new demo later this quarter and production next year but stop me if you've heard this one before...) and got something else.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

Tesla did it with the Model 3 and then again with the Model Y. I realize they had almost no competition and went through production hell, but Rivian could do that too if they wanted to. They might even attract Tesla’s engineering talent as they grow and Elon keeps making low-production EVs that no one can afford (CyberTruck and Roadster).

Tesla had someone with vision and and robust OPs team. Rivian does not.

 

[GEON]

Hey if it hits 100, I can retire in style!

 

[zakool21]

My hope is that it doubles or triples in the next few years.

I bought at IPO at $112 and on the day that it spiked to $150+ sold it all. Came away with a clean $5k.

I now am averaged at around $13, which is a comfortable spot for me to ride through the next couple years.

If Rivian shows a strong hold – or at least strong competition – on the R2 segment, I will hold for longer.

 

[TerryInHouston]

My guess - Rivian has a numbered set of days left - they live off of the Amazon delivery vans - and those will eventually not sustain them....

GMC Truck - miles are close enough to 400 - that will pull away truck buyers from Rivian.... and a $50k R2 - nobody will buy it is way to high in price ....

Sell - while you can.

p.s. - I'm not a lawyer, broker, just a dumb ass from Texas who still believes in non-communistic free markets !!

 

[zakool21]

GMC Truck - miles are close enough to 400 - that will pull away truck buyers from Rivian.... and a $50k R2 - nobody will buy it is way to high in price ....

This completely discounts the average selling cost of a new vehicle these days, which is just north of $50k.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a69047202/average-new-car-price-rises-above-50000/

Rivian said they're on track for $45k pricing for the R2, which one can easily interpret to mean $55-60k at launch for the most common available options. The Model 3 didn't ever sell in any meaningful numbers at $35k as advertised – it wasn't until later that a stripped-down, small-battery, RWD version was available anywhere close to that.

 

[baggachipz]

I wrote an involved blog post a year ago speculating on Rivian's chances and what it will take to be successful. Looking back at it, my prediction seems consistent at this point (though Lucid didn't die). If Rivian can survive and produce the R2 in significant quantities, there's no reason they can't gobble a large slice of the Model Y market. Model Y is among the best-selling cars in the world, because a useful mid-size electric SUV is very desirable. Lots of people don't want to buy that type of vehicle from Tesla, for obvious reasons.

At this point, there is significant upside for RIVN and not much downside. It can go to 0, but it could also go to 50 or more. I bought around $13 and am going to hold in anticipation o the production ramp.

 

[TerryInHouston]

Crystal balls if we all had one .....

Rivn is not taking Tesla customers - and Tesla customers will stay loyal to Tesla .... that is why the R2 just won't work unless they price it around the mustang at $35k....

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