Osborne Schmozborne

[140 degrees]

Since Rivian’s Autonomy day announcement, I’ve seen many people commenting that Rivian is going to suffer from the Osborne Effect, where customer hold off on purchases while they wait for the improved product. This certainly will happen, but I think the current situation is much more complex and is actually quite positive.

First one should imagine the review articles and podcasts after the roll-out. If LIDAR and autonomy were included, they would largely be picking apart the self-driving technology and making comparisons to Tesla. Now they will be analyzing the vehicle and how it actually drives. There will be discussions about off roading. Comparisons will be made to Forester, RAV4, and CR-V, instead of Tesla. I think it is better to address this bigger market.

After watching Autonomy day, I am totally sold on LIDAR as part of the sensor array. If you watch the Autonomy day video, starting at 12:57, you can see the difference in Resolution in 2016 when Tesla decided not to use it, and today. The cost in 2016 was also 10X higher. Tesla made the right decision for 2016, and Rivian is making the right decision today. Look at the same video, starting at 31:45. It shows how LIDAR can identify location and velocity of objects to the side that aren’t well illuminated by the headlights. Imagine a deer coming out the ditch. No contest. I want this.

What about the additional cost of a vehicle with LIDAR? RJ speaks of the day when your car picks your kids up from school without a driver. I actually don’t know who will be happier on that day, the parents who get more ‘me time’, or the kids who can brag to their friends that they are riding without their parents! This isn’t like deciding whether to spend a few thousand to upgrade the interior. Safety in this autonomous future will be non-negotiable. Tesla will need to do an about-face if they want to keep up.

Finally, what about the driving demos where the Tesla fans are claiming that Rivian is 5 years behind? I think that Rivian was sandbagging at least a little. Can’t do right turn on red? I don’t buy it. When Rivian brings out LIDAR based autonomy, it should be much closer to Tesla FSD, and the velocity of improvement might look like they made up 4 years in a matter of months. Rivian will look like a safe choice if you care about autonomy.

I like Rivian’s prospects. Full disclosure, I also like to drive. I'm hoping that these features will make for a safer drive if autonomy is watching over my shoulder.

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[ndmiller]

I would say a very small percentage of the average consumer has any clue about any of this information, features or even how an EV charges in the US. With the price of a new vehicle ~50K or more, replacement vehicles have become more of a necessity purchase and price and interest rates are the primary decision factors.

 

[lefkonj]

If I was in the market for a new R1 I would wait to see when the Gen3 is coming, considering all the changes. If the R2 is released with all this hardware just not software enabled it won't stop anyone, will probably help sales.

 

[3wisemonkeyz]

I think a big reason the Gen3 R2 is deliberately being delayed until the Gen3 R1 with Lidar is out (hopefully Q2). It is the flagship after all so it needs to have the latest/greatest.

 

[iamnid]

I can see it affecting sales. I plan on getting an R2 when my number comes up and/or when my current R1S lease ends.

I'd place lidar in the "nice to have" category as opposed to "must have." I use traffic aware cruise control and am not especially interested in paying for the self driving suite. That said, nobody wants to buy old technology, so I'd prefer to get Lidar if possible. Realistically, I get a new car every few years so it's doubtful the lidar will be fully utilized before I move on to whatever comes after R2 anyway.

 

[Druidspirit]

So I got a little confused watching the Autonomy & AI Day video. Is the R2 releasing with Gen3 hardware or are they initially shipping with Gen2 for first half the of year deliveries then switching to Gen3 hardware for second half of the year deliveries?

If they are shipping with Gen2, will the current hardware be able to support all the inputs the R2 has (lidar, radar, camaras) or will it be forever kneecapped? Sorry for the confusion.

 

[vhodges]

It's my current understanding that it will launch with Gen2 hardware and no lidar. No word on if there's an upgrade path or not.

It will be some time before I really trust FSD or even hands free so it's probably not an issue for me... but I had to cancel and re-register on the wait list so by the time I can actually order I will probably have the option for Gen 3 and Lidar, but I am hoping it's standard equipment when it does arrive, but it would be a way to offer some price segmentation.

 

[140 degrees]

If I owned a Gen2 R1, I would be very happy about this turn of events. It means the Gen2 hardware will be supported further into the future and in a more robust way, because it is shipping on a new platform.

 

[allisgoodman]

Can’t do right turn on red? I don’t buy it. When Rivian brings out LIDAR based autonomy, it should be much closer to Tesla FSD

LIDAR is not going to help making it do right turn on red better. Rivian is planning to use LIDAR to handle the more extreme edge cases to bridge the gap between Tesla and itself.

 

[AlphaSnowbordergirl]

So I got a little confused watching the Autonomy & AI Day video. Is the R2 releasing with Gen3 hardware or are they initially shipping with Gen2 for first half the of year deliveries then switching to Gen3 hardware for second half of the year deliveries?

I know Rivian said they were planning a slow ramp up. I'm wondering if they're going to do what Lucid did with the gravity and "start deliveries" on time, but give very limited versions of the car and really start giving them out later that year.

 

[iamnid]

It's my current understanding that it will launch with Gen2 hardware and no lidar. No word on if there's an upgrade path or not.

It will be some time before I really trust FSD or even hands free so it's probably not an issue for me... but I had to cancel and re-register on the wait list so by the time I can actually order I will probably have the option for Gen 3 and Lidar, but I am hoping it's standard equipment when it does arrive, but it would be a way to offer some price segmentation.

Interesting. I figured it would launch with gen 3 hardware but no lidar. So you don't think it will get ANY of the hardware they spoke of at AI day (AI chip etc.) until later in the year when lidar is added?

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

I would say a very small percentage of the average consumer has any clue about any of this information, features or even how an EV charges in the US. With the price of a new vehicle ~50K or more, replacement vehicles have become more of a necessity purchase and price and interest rates are the primary decision factors.

The average EV consumer who is looking for a higher end EV is the right base to look at. And they are more informed and up to date on EV tech than the average consumer.

 

[hudesigns]

For Supervised Autonomy vision only approach is already doing a fine job. For Unsupervised and Driverless/Monitorless Autonomy at Scale, multi sensor is right approach that includes Radar, LiDAR. I got this understanding by watching the speed of Tesla commercialization of its driverless/monitorless robotaxi and private owned S3XYs. And by watching Rivian Autonomy Day video. Let’s not argue and see what happens.

 

[Eric9610]

Just remember that as soon as the G3 platform is out all updates to the prior generation will stop. Look at the G1 to G2. Is the G1 capable of more, yes but Rivian has intentionally kneecapped it. I would be extremely weary of getting any major update to the G2 platform from this point forward. Even questionable on some of the features they promised.

Also, most if not all the people with reservations for an R2 are not the average buyer. Maybe 10% are oblivious and just like the brand.

 

[sparked]

So I got a little confused watching the Autonomy & AI Day video. Is the R2 releasing with Gen3 hardware or are they initially shipping with Gen2 for first half the of year deliveries then switching to Gen3 hardware for second half of the year deliveries?

If they are shipping with Gen2, will the current hardware be able to support all the inputs the R2 has (lidar, radar, camaras) or will it be forever kneecapped? Sorry for the confusion.

Yeah, no Gen 3 or lidar until late 2026 with Gen 2 being used initially.
It doesn't like there is an upgrade path on lidar for Gen 2 vehicles. I suspect they won't offer an upgrade path from Gen 2 to Gen 3 computer either since they haven't promised Level 4 to Gen 2 customers. Plus, this will be a fairly limited number of cars. Whereas Gen 3 could be in hundreds of thousands of R2s.

I would set expectations low and enjoy what you have at delivery with Gen 2 or even Gen 3. Don't get caught up in any future promises.

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