California's new $3500 EV rebate favors Rivian over Tesla due to HQ location

[C12farmer]

Unfortunately, Tesla will still take a majority of this money. Most Model 3 and Y are under $50K and Rivian will have limited R2 production/delivery capacity during the time this money is available.

The funding is enough for roughly 60K, assuming 80% of funding goes to new vehicles. Tesla sells ~10k Y & 3 vehicles a month in CA, and it has about 50% market share. This means the funding is only going to last about 3-4 months, maybe 5-6 month depending on other assumptions.

If California really wanted to screw Tesla, they should have put a cap on how many each manufacturer could take and gave CA mfgs an unlimited number and other like 5-10K cars. Otherwise Tesla will figure out a way to game the system.

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[rvnxyz001]

Unfortunately, Tesla will still take a majority of this money. Most Model 3 and Y are under $50K and Rivian will have limited R2 production/delivery capacity during the time this money is available.

The funding is enough for roughly 60K, assuming 80% of funding goes to new vehicles. Tesla sells ~10k Y & 3 vehicles a month in CA, and it has about 50% market share. This means the funding is only going to last about 3-4 months, maybe 5-6 month depending on other assumptions.

If California really wanted to screw Tesla, they should have put a cap on how many each manufacturer could take and gave CA mfgs an unlimited number and other like 5-10K cars. Otherwise Tesla will figure out a way to game the system.

I believe I saw a Tesla AWD premium at a little higher price... or was it like this before?

 

[mkg3]

One reason the California High-Speed Rail (CA HSR) project is moving forward is the practical impossibility of building new airports or expanding existing ones in major California cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego.

As part of efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, some EU member states in Europe have begun moving to ban flights on routes where the rail travel time is less than two and a half hours. Consequently, high-speed rail stations are increasingly being established on or immediately adjacent to the premises of major airports.

By connecting Central Valley communities to coastal job centers with 220 mph trains, the California High-Speed Rail (CAHSR) project aims to reduce supercommutes and mitigate urban sprawl. This strategy targets transit-oriented development (TOD) to concentrate new growth near stations rather than endlessly expanding existing city footprints.

A key point of contention surrounding the CA HSR is the cost escalation often associated with large-scale projects. This cost issue is a major concern, particularly given that land acquisition has not yet been completed.

Furthermore, the modernization and expansion of the viaduct network represent an essential—albeit costly, undertaking. As California’s population continues to grow despite the absence of large rivers, this infrastructure development has become an increasingly critical priority.

Just so you know, I love trains and traveling on trains. When we got married, we held the wedding ceremony and the reception in the 1936 FDR campaign rail car. Have traveled extensively in Europe and Japan on high speed rail and loved the whole thing.

Unfortunately, what CA is doing is not doing anything what you've said. The current rail goes from north of Bakersfield to south of Modesto and ends there. The plan is to continue but this is the first lag and is running well over $100B over budget. Even their own plan does not connect to Tracy (outside of the Bay Area still in the Central Valley) until 2050s. There is no plan to go and connect to any of the Amtrak/Metrolink stations in LA much less further south to San Diego.

Much rather see LA to Vegas high speed rail. This too has stalled.

While air traffic congestion is real, and needs to addressed but the first step is to bring in modern air traffic control, like the rest of the modern world has done. We need to go to physics-based trajectory air space management rather than today's point tracking method. This alone will increase throughput and streamline the airport volume without increasing the footprint.

I too am curious how the state is going to define and enforce what a 1st time EV buyer is....

 

[NeverFollow]

Just so you know, I love trains and traveling on trains. When we got married, we held the wedding ceremony and the reception in the 1936 FDR campaign rail car. Have traveled extensively in Europe and Japan on high speed rail and loved the whole thing.

Unfortunately, what CA is doing is not doing anything what you've said. The current rail goes from north of Bakersfield to south of Modesto and ends there. The plan is to continue but this is the first lag and is running well over $100B over budget. Even their own plan does not connect to Tracy (outside of the Bay Area still in the Central Valley) until 2050s. There is no plan to go and connect to any of the Amtrak/Metrolink stations in LA much less further south to San Diego.

Much rather see LA to Vegas high speed rail. This too has stalled.

While air traffic congestion is real, and needs to addressed but the first step is to bring in modern air traffic control, like the rest of the modern world has done. We need to go to physics-based trajectory air space management rather than today's point tracking method. This alone will increase throughput and streamline the airport volume without increasing the footprint.

I too am curious how the state is going to define and enforce what a 1st time EV buyer is....

Interesting memorable story !!! I remember seen the Marco Polo few years ago.

Starting the California high-speed rail project in an area that didn't require tunneling seemed like a good idea, but the project has already taken so long and gone so far over budget that its completion is now in doubt.

High-speed rail projects have faltered in other states as well. I’ve been hearing about plans for a Boston-to-Washington, D.C. line since I was a child, and there were even plans for a maglev train. Perhaps a high-speed rail line in Texas will eventually become a reality, or other, more modest projects might emerge in the Midwest.

 

[tivoboy]

Interesting memorable story !!! I remember seen the Marco Polo few years ago.

Starting the California high-speed rail project in an area that didn't require tunneling seemed like a good idea, but the project has already taken so long and gone so far over budget that its completion is now in doubt.

High-speed rail projects have faltered in other states as well. I’ve been hearing about plans for a Boston-to-Washington, D.C. line since I was a child, and there were even plans for a maglev train. Perhaps a high-speed rail line in Texas will eventually become a reality, or other, more modest projects might emerge in the Midwest.

Just saying, nobody is building a maglev on that type of corridor (Boston to Washington). Costs for maglev at the LOW end can land at 100M PER MILE, to ~ 250-450M PER mile.. and nothing has been done in many years to decades, so getting any updated costs today hasn’t been done.

There HAS been talk of a Baltimore to Washington line, but the $500M PER MILE astonomical price tag left any viability suspect, and the current administration killed all plans for it last year.

It’s also sadly one of those things that is VERY susceptible to geological disruptions, even tiny ones.. and west coast and actually EAST coast terra planes have enough activity to drive concern that frequent downtime and repairs could prove costly and destroy commercial viability.

 

[derekmw]

Speaking of rail….this thread has seriously derailed

 

[VandalSibs]

Speaking of rail….this thread has seriously derailed

 

[derekmw]

Well at least Rivian is official now, along with 12 other manufacturers including Tesla:
https://www.gov.ca.gov/2026/07/16/g...er-instant-rebates-for-first-time-zev-buyers/

I just asked my Delivery Team (i've been holding off starting registration until I got clarity on this - even though they said I had 72-hours to complete it...eek) if I can now purchase this under my wife or father-in-law's name since they have never registered an EV before. I'll see what they say. $3500 is a big deal...it is worth waiting to see if I can get it. I just hope they don't end up cancelling my order and pushing me back in line for stalling. lol

 

[rvnxyz001]

Well at least Rivian is official now, along with 12 other manufacturers including Tesla:
https://www.gov.ca.gov/2026/07/16/g...er-instant-rebates-for-first-time-zev-buyers/

I just asked my Delivery Team (i've been holding off starting registration until I got clarity on this - even though they said I had 72-hours to complete it...eek) if I can now purchase this under my wife or father-in-law's name since they have never registered an EV before. I'll see what they say. $3500 is a big deal...it is worth waiting to see if I can get it. I just hope they don't end up cancelling my order and pushing me back in line for stalling. lol

This program is great for legacy dealerships, buyers usually could negotiate more than 3500 discount on EVs like subaru , not they get 3500 only and dealer is not loosing this money. I dont think think this 3500 can be combined with negotiated discount

 

[iamnid]

Unfortunately, Tesla will still take a majority of this money. Most Model 3 and Y are under $50K and Rivian will have limited R2 production/delivery capacity during the time this money is available.

Why is it "unfortunate"?

Isn't the point of the subsidy to get new owners into a new EV rather than trying to make sure Tesla can't participate?

Also, my understanding is that the state pays half of the $3,500 and the manufacturer eats the other half.

 

[rvnxyz001]

Why is it "unfortunate"?

Because people consume too much propaganda

 

[tivoboy]

Well at least Rivian is official now, along with 12 other manufacturers including Tesla:
https://www.gov.ca.gov/2026/07/16/g...er-instant-rebates-for-first-time-zev-buyers/

I just asked my Delivery Team (i've been holding off starting registration until I got clarity on this - even though they said I had 72-hours to complete it...eek) if I can now purchase this under my wife or father-in-law's name since they have never registered an EV before. I'll see what they say. $3500 is a big deal...it is worth waiting to see if I can get it. I just hope they don't end up cancelling my order and pushing me back in line for stalling. lol

Ur probably better with wife, assuming she lives at your same address.. that is a pretty compelling not transferring reservation criteria.

 

[derekmw]

Ur probably better with wife, assuming she lives at your same address.. that is a pretty compelling not transferring reservation criteria.

Delivery team already got back to me and said I could do either (probably helps that we all live at the same household). In any case though just for simplicity (since my father in law is quite old), I may just do it under my wife.

 

[tivoboy]

Delivery team already got back to me and said I could do either (probably helps that we all live at the same household). In any case though just for simplicity (since my father in law is quite old), I may just do it under my wife.

Good call, yes as macabre as it sounds with an elderly parent I recommend ppl have them SIGN the transfer form of the title NOW and then put it in a safety deposit box.. it gets messy to transfer or sell it easily if they are the only one listed on the title and something unexpected happens.

Ur also better off if the primary insured (the title owner) isn’t the oldest person.

 

[rvnxyz001]

Delivery team already got back to me and said I could do either (probably helps that we all live at the same household). In any case though just for simplicity (since my father in law is quite old), I may just do it under my wife.

Not sure if they can tell if you qualify for sure
CARB has not yet published the final attestation form or operational rules

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