Ketchum: Wait for LiDAR? - The Rivian R2 LiDAR story isn’t what you think

[VictoriousRetreat]

I got the red hands of death 2 weeks ago on the interstate in stop and go traffic when it was raining hard on AI4 latest FSD. No more than 35 mph max.

is that a vision only system limitation? would radar help. R2 has multiple radars i beleive

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[Jeremy3292]

is that a vision only system limitation? would radar help. R2 has multiple radars i beleive

Yes with proper implementation

 

[tgrick]

All I can say is I agree with Rivian 100% on having multiple sensors and vision to reach FSD. In the end, is LIDAR required? Well, other car companies besides Tesla do not think so. The statement made by others is the level of precision is not required. Vision is required for signs, lights, road marks etc. I was going to wait for Gen 3 as I care more about the compute power than LIDAR. It is my understanding that RJ made statements that RIVAN can't upgrade Gen 2.5 to Gen 3. They can't retrofit the LIDAR module. However, can RIVIAN upgrade the compute power without LIDAR? Does anyone know if RIVAN has upgraded the hardware in Gen 1 cars to Gen 2 due to a failure? I'm curious to know if this is doable? I was going to wait for Gen 3 and I decided not too. I think they are years away from true FSD and I don't think I'm going to miss out on too much while we all wait.

 

[Eric9610]

All I can say is I agree with Rivian 100% on having multiple sensors and vision to reach FSD. In the end, is LIDAR required? Well, other car companies besides Tesla do not think so. The statement made by others is the level of precision is not required. Vision is required for signs, lights, road marks etc. I was going to wait for Gen 3 as I care more about the compute power than LIDAR. It is my understanding that RJ made statements that RIVAN can't upgrade Gen 2.5 to Gen 3. They can't retrofit the LIDAR module. However, can RIVIAN upgrade the compute power without LIDAR? Does anyone know if RIVAN has upgraded the hardware in Gen 1 cars to Gen 2 due to a failure? I'm curious to know if this is doable? I was going to wait for Gen 3 and I decided not too. I think they are years away from true FSD and I don't think I'm going to miss out on too much while we all wait.

They could not upgrade G1 to G2 as all the cameras got upgraded and the position for 2 changed. My understanding on the upgrade is that RAP1 computer package is the problem, the Lidar cutout is on all R2's.

 

[tgrick]

They could not upgrade G1 to G2 as all the cameras got upgraded and the position for 2 changed. My understanding on the upgrade is that RAP1 computer package is the problem, the Lidar cutout is on all R2's.

You would think that a technology upgrade path would be part of the engineering discussions when they design these vehicles. I know they need to sell cars, I get that. As a customer, It's sad that I have to spend 60k on a new car just to have the latest and greatest when it's possibly available in a future upgrade for a fraction of the price.

 

[Mathme]

I think all R2s and R3s will have LiDAR ad Rivian wants that LiDAR data for their overall data lake. Once the R2 line switches to the LiDAR, they all will have it. Now if Rivian allows customers in lower trims to enable it is another story - or allows for a higher price is TBD. Once LiDAR is released, there will a SaS charge for to use it. Tesla currently charges $100/month and Cadillac charges for super cruise. For Rivian to give up that additional stream would be crazy.

even if your Rivian has LiDAR, it will only be enabled in specific Operational Design Domains (ODD) once Rivian had state regulatory approvals. This will take legislatures a lot of data and time to allow, and likely only in mapped areas on mapped highways. I’d be surprised if this happens within the next 5 years. So even if you buy that LiDAR equipped Rivian, you may still not be able to use it - except in specific mapped areas and in specific conditions.

People talk about future proofing their car and that’s a continual case of the dog chasing his/her tail. You’ll never catch it. For me, I’m looking at a purchase to replace my Gen 1 R1T that’s getting lots of creaky and bouncy suspension and driveline bits. For me, I’ll take the LE R2, drive it with free Autonomy+ for 5-6 years, then reevaluate Level 4 Autonomy (hands off, eyes off) tech at that time.

 

[thrillseeker1234]

I think all R2s and R3s will have LiDAR ad Rivian wants that LiDAR data for their overall data lake. Once the R2 line switches to the LiDAR, they all will have it. Now if Rivian allows customers in lower trims to enable it is another story - or allows for a higher price is TBD. Once LiDAR is released, there will a SaS charge for to use it. Tesla currently charges $100/month and Cadillac charges for super cruise. For Rivian to give up that additional stream would be crazy.

even if your Rivian has LiDAR, it will only be enabled in specific Operational Design Domains (ODD) once Rivian had state regulatory approvals. This will take legislatures a lot of data and time to allow, and likely only in mapped areas on mapped highways. I’d be surprised if this happens within the next 5 years. So even if you buy that LiDAR equipped Rivian, you may still not be able to use it - except in specific mapped areas and in specific conditions.

People talk about future proofing their car and that’s a continual case of the dog chasing his/her tail. You’ll never catch it. For me, I’m looking at a purchase to replace my Gen 1 R1T that’s getting lots of creaky and bouncy suspension and driveline bits. For me, I’ll take the LE R2, drive it with free Autonomy+ for 5-6 years, then reevaluate Level 4 Autonomy (hands off, eyes off) tech at that time.

very well put. Most people don't know how tough it is to get permitted on the regulation level to run this type of thing and only taking CEO's words on its face value. When it comes to automobile safety, it takes a looooooong time to get approved. People should not have high expectation.

 

[NinjaWrap]

Tesla currently charges $100/month and Cadillac charges for super cruise. For Rivian to give up that additional stream would be crazy

Take rate for FSD in HW4 vehicles is only about 20% or so even though it is very good now. If it was $49 they would probably make way more overall revenue per month. I personally think Rivian should be ~$29 at current capabilities if they wanted to maximize revenue.

 

[Mos Eisley]

Take rate for FSD in HW4 vehicles is only about 20% or so even though it is very good now. If it was $49 they would probably make way more overall revenue per month.

Gross maybe, who knows about Net.

 

[tivoboy]

Take rate for FSD in HW4 vehicles is only about 20% or so even though it is very good now. If it was $49 they would probably make way more overall revenue per month. I personally think Rivian should be ~$29 at current capabilities if they wanted to maximize revenue.

Technically it was closer to 15% (1.48M on less than 10M cars not including all the damage, totaled and abandoned cars), and nobody knows if they meant FSD AND subscriptions or just actual MRR subscriptions.. there are ~ 250-400K FSD enabled cars (historical numbers through purchase), which would leave at most 1M subs, and that too can be easily gamed with new cars getting free trials, or taking a poling in the summer when peak driving season occurs and someone might be more inclined to enable FSD for a road trip for the month.

 

[NinjaWrap]

Technically it was closer to 15% (1.48M on less than 10M cars not including all the damage, totaled and abandoned cars), and nobody knows if they meant FSD AND subscriptions or just actual MRR subscriptions.. there are ~ 250-400K FSD enabled cars (historical numbers through purchase), which would leave at most 1M subs, and that too can be easily gamed with new cars getting free trials, or taking a poling in the summer when peak driving season occurs and someone might be more inclined to enable FSD for a road trip for the month.

My number is estimate for hw4 only. Of the entire fleet it’s around 15%. Half the fleet is hw3 and take rate until a year ago was less than 10%.

 

[Jeremy3292]

People talk about future proofing their car and that’s a continual case of the dog chasing his/her tail. You’ll never catch it. For me, I’m looking at a purchase to replace my Gen 1 R1T that’s getting lots of creaky and bouncy suspension and driveline bits. For me, I’ll take the LE R2, drive it with free Autonomy+ for 5-6 years, then reevaluate Level 4 Autonomy (hands off, eyes off) tech at that time.

Bingo. I'll believe L4 from any OEM once it is approved and in action on the streets. It's all puffery until then.

 

[NinjaWrap]

People talk about future proofing their car and that’s a continual case of the dog chasing his/her tail. You’ll never catch it.

I get that but ask people who bought a HW3 Tesla in 2023 and then had to be stuck a year and a half on v12 just to get FSD 14 lite six months after HW4 cars got FSD 14.

It’s not so much the future promise of Level 4 autonomy for me as much as it is having a more powerful computer that will definitely be better at everything as time goes on.

but autonomy performance is important to me since I’ve been using FSD for five years. Really hoping they can do better than FSD v10 when they launch point to point.

 

[rvnxyz001]

I get that but ask people who bought a HW3 Tesla in 2023 and then had to be stuck a year and a half on v12 just to get FSD 14 lite six months after HW4 cars got FSD 14.

It’s not so much the future promise of Level 4 autonomy for me as much as it is having a more powerful computer that will definitely be better at everything as time goes on.

but autonomy performance is important to me since I’ve been using FSD for five years. Really hoping they can do better than FSD v10 when they launch point to point.

That’s exactly why I’m not convinced by the "Gen 2 has tons of headroom" argument.

Gen 1 R1 started deliveries in 2021, and by 2024 Rivian had already replaced its autonomy hardware with Gen 2. So in roughly three years, the original hardware was already relatively obsolete from a tech/autonomy standpoint. RJ himself said Gen 1 was using something like 75% of its capability while Gen 2 was using around 1%.

Now R2 Launch Edition buyers are basically getting that Gen 2-era architecture in 2026, while Rivian has already announced the next generation with RAP1 and LiDAR.

Sure, Gen 2 may only be using a tiny fraction of its compute today. But nobody knows how much the next autonomy models will require. A much larger model could eat through that headroom very quickly, and a few years from now Gen 2 could be in the same position Gen 1 is today.

Tesla HW3 is a pretty good example of why I wouldn’t put much value on theoretical "future-proof" compute. What matters is whether the hardware can run the software they want to ship several years from now, not how empty the computer looks on launch day.

 

[NinjaWrap]

That’s exactly why I’m not convinced by the "Gen 2 has tons of headroom" argument.

Gen 1 R1 started deliveries in 2021, and by 2024 Rivian had already replaced its autonomy hardware with Gen 2. So in roughly three years, the original hardware was already relatively obsolete from a tech/autonomy standpoint. RJ himself said Gen 1 was using something like 75% of its capability while Gen 2 was using around 1%.

Now R2 Launch Edition buyers are basically getting that Gen 2-era architecture in 2026, while Rivian has already announced the next generation with RAP1 and LiDAR.

Sure, Gen 2 may only be using a tiny fraction of its compute today. But nobody knows how much the next autonomy models will require. A much larger model could eat through that headroom very quickly, and a few years from now Gen 2 could be in the same position Gen 1 is today.

Tesla HW3 is a pretty good example of why I wouldn’t put much value on theoretical "future-proof" compute. What matters is whether the hardware can run the software they want to ship several years from now, not how empty the computer looks on launch day.

Exactly. Just in raw numbers gen2 is half the compute of Tesla HW4 while gen3 is 5x HW4.
I know the TOPS numbers don’t tell the whole story but that is still a significant jump.

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