At what point is the R1T outdated?

[the long way downunder]

There is a reason Tesla charges an extra 10K for the FSD capability.

It's $12K and the reason is people are idiots. : )

p.s. I paid $2500 for FSD years ago … so I'm less of an idiot than them other idiots!

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[AxelR]

At what point is it outdated… Typical life cycle for a vehicle is 5 to 6 years. The R1T is using old tech and should have been released 2 years ago. I’d say it’s already outdated and will for sure be outdated in the next couple years.
The 400 miles range would have given it an edge but are they even planning on selling the Max pack? I’m switching my reservation from large to Max in the next couple days just for fun at this point.

 

[Ladiver]

At what point is it outdated… Typical life cycle for a vehicle is 5 to 6 years. The R1T is using old tech and should have been released 2 years ago. I’d say it’s already outdated and will for sure be outdated in the next couple years.
The 400 miles range would have given it an edge but are they even planning on selling the Max pack? I’m switching my reservation from large to Max in the next couple days just for fun at this point.

Yep if the R1S had Max option, I would switch too. Then when I have run the R1T into the ground and am ready for an upgrade, at least I have a reservation that will be delivered S00N. ?

 

[the long way downunder]

Yep if the R1S had Max option, I would switch too. Then when I have run the R1T into the ground and am ready for an upgrade, at least I have a reservation that will be delivered S00N. ?

I don't imagine I'm the only one that ordered a Launch Edition and an "normal" from Normal as a backup. I have an R1S for "early '23" and will spec that as Max Pack. The original idea was the T would be my daily driver and the S would be the family all-rounder, but that was literally two years ago and that was most of two years after placing the orders.

If my R1T LE continues month by month delays, eventually it shifts from "object of desire" to moot and I let both orders continue to one or other is built then I deal with the dilemma of waiting for the Max Pack or who knows, maybe the Lightning or Hummer or Silverado (due in 2024 …) come up first.

I expect the number of people like me with backup orders will result in attrition once they start building out the wait list. Also the influx of people that ordered a car just to get in on the IPO DSP will result in many (all?) of those people cancelling their orders, taking their $1000 and licking their $70 turned into $60 wounds with a sour opinion of this "next Tesla" … just to be clear, I think the smarter move is to keep the shares for five or ten years, I'm just talking about the opportunists (though I guess many of them sold smartly at $100 to $150 and are laughing as they cancel their pre-order.)

 

[AxelR]

Like you, I have a backup order but with a different company than Rivian
I was truly excited about the Rivian, but at this point I don’t care anymore.
It’s almost Valentine’s Day, maybe that will revive the flame….

 

[rraj2k81]

It's $12K and the reason is people are idiots. : )

p.s. I paid $2500 for FSD years ago … so I'm less of an idiot than them other idiots!

FSD is 10K CAD, so it's still a bit cheaper here.
And I am one of those idiots too

I have a Model S LR on order and felt like I needed add the FSD option.
For the price of the Model S, adding FSD didn't seem like a deal breaker.
Not saying it's worth it now, but I do like the gimmicks it comes with.
But I am still on the fence about it too.

 

[rraj2k81]

That's the case with all automakers, especially the legacies. In fact, legacies use antiquated microprocessor designs for most things...we should be in better shape with Rivian.

My hope is that the architecture is designed in a modular fashion that will enable upgrades if required.

Yeah, good point.

Although legacy automakers have never been about constantly upgrading the feature set or adding new functionality once a specific model is released. They hardly make any changes., they do the occasional map upgrades or very rarely upgrade a UI firmware upgrade. So, this has never been a thing that we have ever thought about.

It's only after Tesla, we have started to talk about OTA updates for continually updating vehicles capability or upgrading the software to make it better. Tesla started the whole improve the vehicle's capability overnight via a software update.

And Rivian is no different here either. The software is continuously being updated right now, and they will start to push more functionality as they mature the platform. We also know they have a membership plan in the works that would potentially unlock more features. We have all been speculating that they do have a higher voltage battery pack that is locked to 400V.

Only now legacy makers are starting to talk about OTA updates and their models supporting it and what they plan to do with it.

Ford recently came out and said they are going to follow the Tesla Model and perform updates on the fly without having to follow MY updates on their new vehicles.
Ford is making tweaks to its Mach-E between model-year updates | Driving
The Ford Mach-E has been getting significant software updates since it was released based on what I am reading. Though they are still not doing any major functionality upgrades.

So only time will tell how legacy makers are going to manage this.
Chances are they will have the same problems and concerns as Rivian would.

 

[Scott]

There is a reason Tesla charges an extra 10K for the FSD capability. So, they have a dedicated microprocessor to handle the FSD capability and not burden the inbuilt microprocessors.

The reason Tesla charges so much for FSD isn’t the hardware in the car at all. The extra processing power costs way less than that.
The reason they charge so much is simple: people will pay it. They will continue to raise the price until their profits from that line item decrease in aggregate. When the extra money made per person is offset by fewer people selecting the option you will see the price no longer rise.

My personal take is FSD is insane to pay for. As it stands today the delta in capabilities between Tesla’s standard autopilot and FSD come no where near justifying that cost, and true full self driving is still far enough off that very few people buying a Tesla today will still own that car when the promise becomes a reality.

 

[Max]

Most things are possible, if you’re willing to apply enough money. Like adding radar cruise on Mercedes’ for example.

I am not sure about radar cruise but I always wanted to add a cruise missile to my wife’s Subaru. For some reason any shmock and their mama turn into a bully on the road when they are behind a green Subaru. Granted the duct tape on the bumper didn’t help but I really wanted that missile upgrade bad.

 

[the long way downunder]

I am not sure about radar cruise but I always wanted to add a cruise missile to my wife’s Subaru. For some reason any shmock and their mama turn into a bully on the road when they are behind a green Subaru. Granted the duct tape on the bumper didn’t help but I really wanted that missile upgrade bad.

I think that's an option in Russia – you never know if the other driver has a shoulder-launched RPG or a tactical thermonuclear weapon.

 

[cardad]

With the next inevitable delay and the slow ramp up, will the R1T become outdated before significant deliveries even start? If they take 2-3 years to clear the current backlog of orders, will the R1T still be relevant?

They are trying to come to market with killer specs for 2018, but it’s 2022! How will the look in a few years when a brand new R1T is using 5 year old tech? Will Rivian make any changes so close to launch, or have they stockpiled clearance parts and need to use up their inventory?

We know there are shortcomings and some will scream OTA updates but if the hardware isn’t there, no OTA magic can help.
I have a preorder for the R1T, R1S and Silverado EV. If Rivian can’t deliver in another year and doesn’t update the aging tech, I don’t see myself holding an R1 for very long, if at all.

“Aging tech” ? Other than mythical SS batteries that are unlikely to reach scale by 2025 and autonomy upgrades it seems like Rivian’s spec is about right for the near term and priced WELL below the competition. There’s not much going on competition wise in features … for at LEAST the next two years it will be literally impossible to buy an EV truck at “retail” so giving up your order means someone else will take your spot. If anything they’re selling a $120k vehicle for $75k so you’re just throwing away arbitrage.

You would need to radically change the shape of the vehicle to make larger improvements and if that was their intention they wouldn’t have made it truck shaped and so inefficient.

One reason Tesla hasn’t launched either the Semi, Roadster, or CT is because they can’t get their performance and price requirements to line up. Their aim is chronically off target and they can’t bring a product to market that doesn’t meet performance expectations or costs much more than originally stated. Rivian seems to be sacrificing profitability for market share gains and that’s the risk you should be worried about, not aging tech. I think your expectations are well out of line with reality as Porsche Taycans, Mach Es, and Teslas continue to sell like crazy with no clear end in sight. SS batteries have barely made progress and when they actually reach viability they will still need substantial testing. 2030 seems like a more realistic time to expect big technical leaps. Who knows if Rivian will even make it? They need the equivalent of a Model 3 like a Rivian “Ford Maverick” with a sub $50k price tag that can sell 250k units a year. The R1S/T is merely their way of getting into the game. No doubt once they scale R production they will announce a more affordable model Tesla style and start banking deposits. There will be no new tech just a cheaper, smaller vehicle. Just look at Tesla to understand how minuscule their iterations are. They can’t even afford to retool for new body panels whereas Honda et. al refresh every 2 years. Rivian will be similar.

Rather than being “early” and ending up as an unpaid product tester I think you’ll want to be a bit late and let them get a few more iterations out of the way. 2023 sounds like a good time for delivery if Rivian is doing ok as a business. I have a Taycan and a 4xe and it is an endless stream of bitching and moaning in forums. If you get it early you’re not happy if you get it late you’re not happy.

 

[Franksmartin]

Car and Driver and others are calling it the best truck they have ever driven, so I think it’s the opposite of obsolete.

Range beyond 300 miles will become less and less important as the charging infrastructure expands significantly.

 

[LeoH]

Argonne . I work there. I also do grid modeling and agree with they guy you talked to.

I have known him for years, we live next to the lab too

 

[the long way downunder]

“Aging tech” ? Other than mythical SS batteries that are unlikely to reach scale by 2025 and autonomy upgrades it seems like Rivian’s spec is about right for the near term and priced WELL below the competition. There’s not much going on competition wise in features … for at LEAST the next two years it will be literally impossible to buy an EV truck at “retail” so giving up your order means someone else will take your spot. If anything they’re selling a $120k vehicle for $75k so you’re just throwing away arbitrage.

You would need to radically change the shape of the vehicle to make larger improvements and if that was their intention they wouldn’t have made it truck shaped and so inefficient.

One reason Tesla hasn’t launched either the Semi, Roadster, or CT is because they can’t get their performance and price requirements to line up. Their aim is chronically off target and they can’t bring a product to market that doesn’t meet performance expectations or costs much more than originally stated. Rivian seems to be sacrificing profitability for market share gains and that’s the risk you should be worried about, not aging tech. I think your expectations are well out of line with reality as Porsche Taycans, Mach Es, and Teslas continue to sell like crazy with no clear end in sight. SS batteries have barely made progress and when they actually reach viability they will still need substantial testing. 2030 seems like a more realistic time to expect big technical leaps. Who knows if Rivian will even make it? They need the equivalent of a Model 3 like a Rivian “Ford Maverick” with a sub $50k price tag that can sell 250k units a year. The R1S/T is merely their way of getting into the game. No doubt once they scale R production they will announce a more affordable model Tesla style and start banking deposits. There will be no new tech just a cheaper, smaller vehicle. Just look at Tesla to understand how minuscule their iterations are. They can’t even afford to retool for new body panels whereas Honda et. al refresh every 2 years. Rivian will be similar.

Rather than being “early” and ending up as an unpaid product tester I think you’ll want to be a bit late and let them get a few more iterations out of the way. 2023 sounds like a good time for delivery if Rivian is doing ok as a business. I have a Taycan and a 4xe and it is an endless stream of bitching and moaning in forums. If you get it early you’re not happy if you get it late you’re not happy.

I agree that quitting an R1 is walking away from a fun experience, and potentially an "arb" or at least a fun flip to the secondary market (once another EV pickup or the R1S is built and ready for delivery.)

I think concerns about "aging" are valid and evident in the Wh/mi and charge curve – not "deal breakers" but characteristic of 2018 technology. Upgrades could be simple (BMS and heat exchangers) or major (swap out the battery for a state of the art chemistry and construction like the LFP 4680 structural.)

There's no changing the aero, but three "simple" changes would bring measurable gains:
* a chin spoiler under the front bumper that lowers to within 2-3 inches (yep) of the ground at 45 mph, narrow, lightened, low-rolling resistance tires and lightweight forged wheels and wheel arch shrouds with aero wheel covers, removable door mirrors with user-installed (for legality) mirror camera pods.
* reduce the curb weight by the mysterious 1000 pounds or more that the Rivian carries – this could involve de-contenting and redoing whatever over-engineering is bringing the bulk with a production engineering review by the likes of Munro to go to mega-castings, obviating redundant structural and non-structural body, reducing redundant and inefficient plumbing and wiring, multi-purposing components, lightweighting cabin and cargo area … Munro has hours of detailed examination of how to improve the 3 (and how Tesla did go on to improve the Y.)
* poach a couple of Lucid engineers to figure out how they got 500+ miles and incredibly low Wh/mi … : )

Tesla continues to use the NMC 18650 and 2170 but a consumer in 2022 and 2023 can reasonably expect to be buying "state of the art" from a new vehicle maker, which is where Tesla has gone in recent months: LFP. It's especially important for an SUV where range and a large kWh battery should be capable of 100% charge and (far) less susceptible to degradation. Perhaps BYD can offer Rivian all of the above in existing blade packs that could stuff 200kWh+ into the R1 package.

Tesla had the luxury of 10+ years of uncontested market niches – Rivian has Ford, GM, Tesla and others like Kia/Hyundai and BYD arriving in the US market with EVs in the near term (2022 thru 2025) and the whole auto industry will have arrived by year after next. Rivian might already be expecting to be an EDV maker that started way back in 2022 as pickup/SUV niche player while building factories to build batteries to build light commercial vehicles. But I doubt Rivian has any secret master plan for anything other than selling a million R1, R2 and whatever additions to the family.

The VCs and Bezos have no intention of letting Rivian falter. They want more of the billions in gains, but if they quit Rivian, what do they do with their funds; where's the investment that's better than Rivian's 5-10 year plan taking a slice of the EV market with a range of pickups, SUVs, crossovers, vans and other static battery products as well as recreational vehicles?

The motivation is compelling for Bezos and others funding Rivian: to win the game they care about and that means under no circumstances are they going to cede the EV market to Musk and Tesla.

They ain't goin' to sink this battleship, no way …

 

[Craigins]

I have known him for years, we live next to the lab too

Lol so we are basically neighbors.

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