At what point is the R1T outdated?

[AxelR]

I agree with @cardad on getting a later delivery. Who knows maybe the charging infrastructure will have improved by then.
i also think that big money that invested in Rivian would rather see them succeed but really their investment is minimal compared to their value and they could easily walk away if needed (or if Rivian doesn’t make it which seems more likely every day).
I’m hoping they make It and if they don’t I actually don’t care. I’ve never been a fanboy of anything and for a moment I really wanted to be a Rivian aficionado but like most people I’m used to new tech, new toys, every few months and I’ve been waiting close to 4 years for this weirdly sized pickup truck that is aimed at a very narrow group of people.
I was in for the R1S, I switched to R1T to get it faster… at this rate I’ll be able to get a full size EV Range Rover with better range (speculation) if I’m willing to wait 1 or 2 more years. (Yes, LR reliability could be an issue).
In the meantime, I’m enjoying my gas guzzling Gen 3 Raptor (and all of it’s one million cup holders).

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[AllInev]

“Aging tech” ? Other than mythical SS batteries that are unlikely to reach scale by 2025 and autonomy upgrades it seems like Rivian’s spec is about right for the near term and priced WELL below the competition. There’s not much going on competition wise in features … for at LEAST the next two years it will be literally impossible to buy an EV truck at “retail” so giving up your order means someone else will take your spot. If anything they’re selling a $120k vehicle for $75k so you’re just throwing away arbitrage.

Agree completely.

 

[E.S.]

At what point the does R1T become outdated? When the R2T comes around

 

[forumer]

At what point the does R1T become outdated? When the R2T comes around

Or the next (missed opportunity for) incremental upgrade to any number of components on the R1T. For now I assume Rivian is trying to keep things fairly locked down change wise as they try to just get product out the door, but I don't think they have ever suggested they won't iterate either annually as more traditional makes or mid-year as Tesla has often done. It seems the underlying premise of the question is based on the R1T production somehow being frozen in time forever and I'm not sure where that idea comes from.

I'll also add, I see some folks brought up the question of how modular the various vehicle systems are and thus how easy/affordable it may be to perform retrofits. I'm a huge fan of upgradeability and retrofits, especially when they are fully sanctioned by the manufacturer, and have long since hoped Rivian would share this philosophy, but even if they don't it wouldn't be any worse than what we have with most of the traditional ICE makes. Doing better would be preferable, of course.

 

[the long way downunder]

The problem with infrastructure, at least in the US, is that the grid will not be able to handle it. I was having a conversation with a scientist at Aragon Laboratories who is part of the mission responsible to figure that shit out; he basically said if manufacturers really switch to all EV in the next 10 years, we will not be able to sustain the load, mainly at peak hours. So that is why the EV infrastructure roll out is slow'ish, they have a lot to consider. It's not just about scattering high capacity chargers everywhere. Upgrading current grids is an insane job, so the alternative is to have a petrol station model. Instead of underground gas tanks, we will have underground mega batteries to store power, they would pull from the grid and augment all that with solar and wind power; so essentially you would be charging your EV from the underground battery and not the grid. That comes with it's own challenges as well....etc

Argonne . I work there. I also do grid modeling and agree with they guy you talked to.

The premise is misleading. "The grid will not [handle a nationwide EV charging infrastructure]" means "$5B won't cut it – the US power grids will need solar-battery, microgrids, solar panels on every school and government building, etc. and new technology to decentralize power distribution." It will also need regulation to prevent electricity replacing oil as a way to exploit energy as a for-profit racket controlled by a cartel.

I imagine the ethereal visionaries at Aragone (isn't that in LOTR?) or the mere mortals at Argonne Laboratories (which sounds like an dream place to work and exactly the kind of entrepreneurial think tank that the US Govt should be funding … not letting the oil industry fund university "research" in nuclear and "clean coal" etc.) already know pretty much exactly what to do and how to do it.

This really is not rocket science, it's already been put into operation overseas to a scale that can be applied to the whole of the US and I'm sure greatly improved along the way. There shouldn't be the usual government "measure twice, pay contractors to measure twice again, budget for more measuring, run over-budget, still no cutting, more measuring" … or buying everything from overseas suppliers because US industry has closed shop and gone offshore, or deferring to 50 states to all re-invent parallel yet incompatible wheels, each of them suffering the self-interest and incompetence of politicians and being ripped off by corporations while years go by and still no chargers. Meanwhile China announces a program already under way and already putting charging stations in place. Then Biden declares GM is the pioneer and awards a $10B contract to a consortium of Exxon and Chevron to install chargers at their gas stations along with $10B in tax credits to pay them to dig their polluted ground tanks out from under the gas stations so they can do a slipshod job of putting battery arrays underground …

So there! : )

 

[Zoidz]

The problem with infrastructure, at least in the US, is that the grid will not be able to handle it. I was having a conversation with a scientist at Aragon Laboratories who is part of the mission responsible to figure that shit out; he basically said if manufacturers really switch to all EV in the next 10 years, we will not be able to sustain the load, mainly at peak hours.

This is actually a good problem to have because it spurs innovation. And it's not like one day it's fine, and the next day the entire grid collapses. It will happen incrementally, regionally and the utilities will know in advance. Perhaps the first time it happens will be when there is a massive heat wave in California, and around 5 - 6 PM when solar generation drops off and people plug their cars in when they get home from work. Over the longer haul, IF SMR (Small Modular Reactor) technology proves viable, new generation capacity could be located in the areas needing more power (after overcoming NIMBY issues), potentially reducing the need for massive grid upgrades....

 

[zefram47]

Perhaps the first time it happens will be when there is a massive heat wave in California, and around 5 - 6 PM when solar generation drops off and people plug their cars in when they get home from work.

Some of this problem will be handled by time of use charges or demand charges. It sounds like my local utility is planning to implement time of use charges where peak demand time will cost around 2-3x what off-peak costs and a shoulder period either side of peak. So then people will be incentivized to set their cars/EVSEs to charge during off-peak times. If that doesn't spread it out enough then you can make that peak/off-peak time range different for various locations to help spread load. Or, much like the utilities try to do with smart thermostats, you could possibly make EVSEs controllable so that the utility could help balance the load themselves to some degree. Though with vehicles with the largest batteries, that would potentially cause issues with folks not getting a full charge by morning, etc. Details to be worked out, but the load from vehicle charging could certainly be managed.

 

[LeoH]

The premise is misleading. "The grid will not [handle a nationwide EV charging infrastructure]" means "$5B won't cut it – the US power grids will need solar-battery, microgrids, solar panels on every school and government building, etc. and new technology to decentralize power distribution." It will also need regulation to prevent electricity replacing oil as a way to exploit energy as a for-profit racket controlled by a cartel.

I imagine the ethereal visionaries at Aragone (isn't that in LOTR?) or the mere mortals at Argonne Laboratories (which sounds like an dream place to work and exactly the kind of entrepreneurial think tank that the US Govt should be funding … not letting the oil industry fund university "research" in nuclear and "clean coal" etc.) already know pretty much exactly what to do and how to do it.

This really is not rocket science, it's already been put into operation overseas to a scale that can be applied to the whole of the US and I'm sure greatly improved along the way. There shouldn't be the usual government "measure twice, pay contractors to measure twice again, budget for more measuring, run over-budget, still no cutting, more measuring" … or buying everything from overseas suppliers because US industry has closed shop and gone offshore, or deferring to 50 states to all re-invent parallel yet incompatible wheels, each of them suffering the self-interest and incompetence of politicians and being ripped off by corporations while years go by and still no chargers. Meanwhile China announces a program already under way and already putting charging stations in place. Then Biden declares GM is the pioneer and awards a $10B contract to a consortium of Exxon and Chevron to install chargers at their gas stations along with $10B in tax credits to pay them to dig their polluted ground tanks out from under the gas stations so they can do a slipshod job of putting battery arrays underground …

So there! : )

They aren't paid to to figure out what to do though, but to figure out how to do it. Here is the difference between the US and China... China's nationwide plan actually focuses on their main city hubs where EV are actually affordable. An EV in china is not cheaper than the US, maybe by a very small margin, so the people buying them are actually concentrated and not spread all over China. In contrast to the US, where people with the ability to afford an EV span a large geographical footprint. Just like our cell towers vs theirs. They can get away with concentrations on the middle western half and extending north, we can't, we have to manage to cover everyone with the least amount of towers.

The person I talked to, he's actually focusing on the renewable energy part of the grid, which is literally augmenting the grid with wind/solar/hydro. But it can't be on demand, we still need to store huge amounts of energy for calm, cold nights for example. But it all depends on how the governments (Federal and State ) decide to manage it. There is no reason why a Walmart or those large grocery stores shouldn't be mandated to cover their roofs with solar panels, but who's going to do that? Unfortunately we will be reactive, and nothing will be done until the grids are not able to pull through. Remember, a lot of the infrastructure in China is government owned, we have a lot of privately owned/publicly owned portions, and in a capitalist country, it will take a lot of push and balls from the government to do something about them.

 

[LeoH]

This is actually a good problem to have because it spurs innovation. And it's not like one day it's fine, and the next day the entire grid collapses. It will happen incrementally, regionally and the utilities will know in advance. Perhaps the first time it happens will be when there is a massive heat wave in California, and around 5 - 6 PM when solar generation drops off and people plug their cars in when they get home from work. Over the longer haul, IF SMR (Small Modular Reactor) technology proves viable, new generation capacity could be located in the areas needing more power (after overcoming NIMBY issues), potentially reducing the need for massive grid upgrades....

We have seen the NIMBY issue when it came to 5g towers.
Someone: I do not get service! My internet is slow!
Also the same Someone: You better not install that 5g human cooking radiating antenna here!

So wait until the want to install nuclear reactors! Funny story, I was arguing with some moron about the 5G waves, then I told him that he needs to worry about bigger things like DiHydrogen Monoxide, and I referred him to this link https://www.lockhaven.edu/~dsimanek/dhmo.htm the following Sunday he came to tell me how terrified he is from DHMO! Not realizing what it is, and believing he reads on the internet.

Go figure

 

[the long way downunder]

This is actually a good problem to have because it spurs innovation. And it's not like one day it's fine, and the next day the entire grid collapses. It will happen incrementally, regionally and the utilities will know in advance. Perhaps the first time it happens will be when there is a massive heat wave in California, and around 5 - 6 PM when solar generation drops off and people plug their cars in when they get home from work. Over the longer haul, IF SMR (Small Modular Reactor) technology proves viable, new generation capacity could be located in the areas needing more power (after overcoming NIMBY issues), potentially reducing the need for massive grid upgrades....

You're illustrating why nuclear is not realistic, it's a corporate push to keep a stranglehold on for-profit energy.
The last half century of R&D pushing the nuclear agenda (still based on technology discoveries from last century … no new news here … no "this" close …) has not resulted in the invention of a nuclear solution that deals with raw materials, waste, transportation or catastrophe.
As the old joke goes, when a solar power plant fails, what spills into the water table … sunlight?

 

[the long way downunder]

They aren't paid to to figure out what to do though, but to figure out how to do it. Here is the difference between the US and China... China's nationwide plan actually focuses on their main city hubs where EV are actually affordable. An EV in china is not cheaper than the US, maybe by a very small margin, so the people buying them are actually concentrated and not spread all over China. In contrast to the US, where people with the ability to afford an EV span a large geographical footprint. Just like our cell towers vs theirs. They can get away with concentrations on the middle western half and extending north, we can't, we have to manage to cover everyone with the least amount of towers.

The person I talked to, he's actually focusing on the renewable energy part of the grid, which is literally augmenting the grid with wind/solar/hydro. But it can't be on demand, we still need to store huge amounts of energy for calm, cold nights for example. But it all depends on how the governments (Federal and State ) decide to manage it. There is no reason why a Walmart or those large grocery stores shouldn't be mandated to cover their roofs with solar panels, but who's going to do that? Unfortunately we will be reactive, and nothing will be done until the grids are not able to pull through. Remember, a lot of the infrastructure in China is government owned, we have a lot of privately owned/publicly owned portions, and in a capitalist country, it will take a lot of push and balls from the government to do something about them.

step one would be to get state governments out of the kitchen – they know nothing and can do nothing
adding solar is fine
adding hydro is expensive and costs natural resources and costs a metric sheet tonne to maintain (and when it fails ….)
so solar-battery and wind-battery and in some parts of the world, geo-battery … no new inventions, it all works today, and it only gets better and cheaper every year
the problem being … no obscene profit in it … and nor should there be
electricity doesn't "end" nuclear, coal, oil and gas, but it's the beginning of the end

 

[the long way downunder]

We have seen the NIMBY issue when it came to 5g towers.
Someone: I do not get service! My internet is slow!
Also the same Someone: You better not install that 5g human cooking radiating antenna here!

So wait until the want to install nuclear reactors! Funny story, I was arguing with some moron about the 5G waves, then I told him that he needs to worry about bigger things like DiHydrogen Monoxide, and I referred him to this link https://www.lockhaven.edu/~dsimanek/dhmo.htm the following Sunday he came to tell me how terrified he is from DHMO! Not realizing what it is, and believing he reads on the internet.

Go figure

nimby on 5G includes … engineers at airports
but so far 5G does not cause covid

 

[Bullitt]

It’s funny… this thread asking about when the R1T gets outdated and at the same time everyone’s fawning over the Lightning… which hasn’t changed in design much for years, if not decades! My good friend replaces his Ford truck for work (Contractor) every couple years for 20 years now and I am amazed at how little design aesthetic has changed each time. They just keep gettin bigger, which to be fair is what I believe most F series truck owners want.

I personally find the Lightning to be an outdated design that Ford slapped EV into and glued a tablet to the dash. Im not a Ford hater, in fact I have an E450 Super Duty, its a 2008 model and looks pretty much the same as a new one. It’s just me, but I wouldn’t get into a Lightning till they redesign the platform. It feels like theyre rushing to get their trucks out at scale to capture the market before they fully invest in rethinking the platform… inside and out.

Here’s where the flames consume me!

 

[Craigins]

As the old joke goes, when a solar power plant fails, what spills into the water table … sunlight?

What spills into the water table when a nuclear plant fails?

 

[the long way downunder]

What spills into the water table when a nuclear plant fails?

Seriously?
a) Rivian forum (I'm not good at staying on topic … you're not helping!)
b) radioactive cooling water (and the latest salt reactors still just rely on "big concrete box")
c) don't tell me nuclear is safer than solar because people fall of ladders installing solar panels : )

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