Austin, we have a problem! Tesla descends into battery hell

[Count Orlok]

Tesla's Giga Texas factory is currently churning out 4680 battery cells at rate only sufficient to power about 24,000 Cybertrucks a year, or about a 10th of the required output

Austin, we have a problem! Tesla descends into battery hell

Sponsored

 

[Stickboy46]

Austin, we have a problem! Tesla descends into battery hell

24,000 a year is probably closer to real demand than what they are hoping .. once they get past the Tesla fanboys, demand will be minimal.

250k is 50k more than they sold Model 3s last year. A model 3 that is 1/2 to 1/3 the cost of the CT

 

[TexasBob]

The company has guided for less than 50,000 CTs in the first year. The article says that they have two lines running at reduced speed and they are expanding to 8 lines by end of 2024. So It looks like this in on track for hitting next year numbers and 2025 capacity as well.

 

[NY_Rob]

As others have mentioned... at over 50% price increase from the original CT pricing... how may of the $100 reservations will convert in to real sales? They may only be able to produce 24K CT batteries/year but that may be just fine anyway.

IMO, the larger problem for Tesla is the whole "FSD" debacle that is now starting to rear it's ugly head.

 

[COdogman]

They should just make up a new name for reduced production and Musk’s fans will spread it all across the land as an improvement over anything tried throughout history!

How about “Gigasuck” or “hardcore failure”?

 

[Florida Panhandler]

The market for $100k pickups is spent. Rivian has been able to pivot to R1S sales which remain strong and continue to milk the smaller pickup market that remains at this price point with 1-2 month lead times

Currently $70k-$120k+ pickups continue to pile up on Ford, Chevy and Ram dealer lots. The suckers who paid $10k, $20k, $30k dealer markup 2 years ago will be realizing a massive loss on their purchase as the warranties expire in 2-3 years. Cybertruck is rolling out at exactly the wrong time as the number of pickup buyers at this price point is cashed out for probably the next 5 years or more. The need for the lower tier Cybertruck is now, not later.

Rivian’s R2 line at $60k will be positioned very well if it can roll out in 2025 as expected.

 

[DuoRivian]

The market for $100k pickups is spent. Rivian has been able to pivot to R1S sales which remain strong and continue to milk the smaller pickup market that remains at this price point with 1-2 month lead times

Currently $70k-$120k+ pickups continue to pile up on Ford, Chevy and Ram dealer lots. The suckers who paid $10k, $20k, $30k dealer markup 2 years ago will be realizing a massive loss on their purchase as the warranties expire in 2-3 years. Cybertruck is rolling out at exactly the wrong time as the number of pickup buyers at this price point is cashed out for probably the next 5 years or more. The need for the lower tier Cybertruck is now, not later.

Rivian’s R2 line at $60k will be positioned very well if it can roll out in 2025 as expected.

R2 will be $50k+ and starting in 2026 as guided for the past year.

 

[10Blade]

That’s really gonna be a problem when these start production!

 

[CrazyOne]

As others have mentioned... at over 50% price increase from the original CT pricing... how may of the $100 reservations will convert in to real sales? They may only be able to produce 24K CT batteries/year but that may be just fine anyway.

IMO, the larger problem for Tesla is the whole "FSD" debacle that is now starting to rear it's ugly head.

I got mine back.

 

[NY_Rob]

I still have my $100 deposit with Tesla only because it's worth $1,000 off any new Tesla other than the CT. Once that offer ends, I'll ask for it back.

 

[NineElectrics]

R2 will be $50k+ and starting in 2026 as guided for the past year.

I have a hard time believing this (both price and timeline), given Rivian's track record and EV price inflation in general. It would be great to be proven wrong.

 

[NineElectrics]

The company has guided for less than 50,000 CTs in the first year. The article says that they have two lines running at reduced speed and they are expanding to 8 lines by end of 2024. So It looks like this in on track for hitting next year numbers and 2025 capacity as well.

Isn't this battery shortage the reason for this low guidance, though?

 

[Rivian Head]

24,000 a year is probably closer to real demand than what they are hoping .. once they get past the Tesla fanboys, demand will be minimal.

250k is 50k more than they sold Model 3s last year. A model 3 that is 1/2 to 1/3 the cost of the CT

Another example of Tesla pushing the boundaries of battery technology and production. Let’s hope it pays off. The world will be a better place when battery can pack more energy with less cost.

 

[emoore]

I have a hard time believing this, given Rivian's track record and EV price inflation in general. It would be great to be proven wrong.

Or track record of keeping pre orders prices fixed. Unlike most companies.

 

[NineElectrics]

Or track record of keeping pre orders prices fixed. Unlike most companies.

Rivian will never make that mistake again. You can’t even pre-order a Rivian with pricing anymore, only visualize it. It’s all to avoid bait-and-switch liability by the FTC. Zero percent chance Rivian will honor any soft-preorder prices thrown around informally for the R2.

Sponsored