Has Rivian lost the battle AND the war?

[997.2]

OP, this title sounds a little "click-bait"-y. Why would you come into a forum of rabid enthusiasts, and tell them their baby is ugly.

I guess to get replies, and since I am replying, success. Well done OP, but I will see your ploy next time!!!!

Was bored, seemed fun!

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[997.2]

I think it’s pretty premature to determine if the R1S is outclassed in luxury having not driven one or even read a respectable review. The suspension system is 2nd to none (including Porsche), the off road abilities are on par with a Wrangler and Range Rover and likely exceeding anything else, and it’s on road performance is more than adequate ( as the Rolls Royce marketing likes to say). The interior sound levels are extraordinarily low 67db at 70mph. I’m thinking that the R1S will be the understated luxury bargain of the near future.

Do you realize what you just said? You're saying I can't make any conclusions having not driven one....but YOU can. How's that logic work?

 

[997.2]

Ford announces today they are upping production from 40k to 150k F150 Lightnings. More bad news for Rivian. Does anyone here remember Global Crossing?

 

[daeHelkcunK]

Do you realize what you just said? You're saying I can't make any conclusions having not driven one....but YOU can. How's that logic work?

Please re-read. No conclusive statement. I did say that I’m thinking it will be a bargain. Hard to definitively say as I have not driven one yet.

 

[JeffADK]

Ford announces today they are upping production from 40k to 150k F150 Lightnings. More bad news for Rivian. Does anyone here remember Global Crossing?

Global Crossing was in a commodity market with little opportunity for product/service differentiation, and ended up with >95% of their capacity unsold after 2001. It's hard to make money on all that dark fiber with no demand. Rivian has pent-up demand. Apples and oranges.

Rivian doesn't have to outsell full-size trucks to be successful, nor does it have to beat Tesla. I believe that there is a reasonable market for a capable vehicle that:

• can provide a nice ride/interior,
• can perform like a sports sedan,
• can go off-road,
• can haul plywood flat,
• can safely tow 8000 pounds, AND
• can still fit in the average garage.

Oh, and it would be great if it was an EV besides.
Nothing else on the market, ICE or EV, checks all those boxes.

The best truck size for me was my 2001 Toyota Tundra, and the closest thing now is the Ridgeline, but it is very limited as a truck. I've looked at Ranger and Colorado/Canyon also, but they drive like, well... trucks. Years ago I tired of having multiple vehicles, so now I wait for an R1T.

And I haven't yet seen Rivian spending money on TV commercials just to sell their vehicles, so I agree with others who stated that Rivian's success will depend on execution quality.

 

[SANZC02]

Ford announces today they are upping production from 40k to 150k F150 Lightnings. More bad news for Rivian. Does anyone here remember Global Crossing?

There is no news here, it is forward looking, everyone knew they would be doing more than 40k, they are not saying thE number is going up this year. Just curious are you shorting the stock as your posts seem to be working hard to paint a worse picture than the information you have.

“Ford CEO Jim Farley said the company plans to scale production of its electric F-150 Lightning pickup faster than its competitors, with plans to increase production of the Lightning at a plant in Dearborn, Michigan, to 150,000 units in the next year or so, up from an initial target of 40,000 vehicles.”

 

[997.2]

Global Crossing was in a commodity market with little opportunity for product/service differentiation, and ended up with >95% of their capacity unsold after 2001. It's hard to make money on all that dark fiber with no demand. Rivian has pent-up demand. Apples and oranges.

All those conclusions Global Crossing were only obvious in hindsight. It really is an apples to oranges comparison for sure. And it's a totally different type of business.

And I do agree Rivian's success from here forward will be execution. But man, I'll tell you, their short but limited track record doesn't give me lots of confidence.

Oh BTW, where is the real time delivery date estimator thingy they announce in the December pre-order holder email? Its not in my account and was supposed to be up in running "shortly after the new year." Another Rivian promise unfulfilled. I asked and the answer I got was sometime soon. Can these guys deliver ANYTHING on time?

 

[SANZC02]

All those conclusions Global Crossing were only obvious in hindsight. It really is an apples to oranges comparison for sure. And it's a totally different type of business.

And I do agree Rivian's success from here forward will be execution. But man, I'll tell you, their short but limited track record doesn't give me lots of confidence.

Oh BTW, where is the real time delivery date estimator thingy they announce in the December pre-order holder email? Its not in my account and was supposed to be up in running "shortly after the new year." Another Rivian promise unfulfilled. I asked and the answer I got was sometime soon. Can these guys deliver ANYTHING on time?

Can you provide the source for “shortly after the new year” reference?

Everything I saw was worded “early 2022“ which is not very definitive but a real stretch to read as “shortly after the new year”.

 

[997.2]

There is no news here, it is forward looking, everyone knew they would be doing more than 40k, they are not saying thE number is going up this year. Just curious are you shorting the stock as your posts seem to be working hard to paint a worse picture than the information you have.

This is huge news! Ford is scaling up and executing, Rivian is taking step backward.

I own some Rivian stock. As for shorting....just by pure math looking at the stock trading history. There is 100% upside to shorting Rivian (ie it goes to $0) and over negative 521% downside if it goes back to $172. You could lose 5x your money. No thank you! Shorting seems like a quick way to "get poor." Also, you can't just short stocks. In order to do so you have to borrow the stock first. Rivian's short interest is around 10%. That's pretty high. While I haven't checked, getting a Rivian borrow to short it is probably darn near impossible. At this point, Rivian stock seems somewhat interesting to me and I started buying around $36 a few weeks ago. But that's a bit speculative even for me. Trying to figure out what Rivian is worth by any traditional valuation metric is also darn near impossible. You have to believe in a lot of "new math" valuation metrics that I just don't feel comfortable using. Still....you don't have to bet the house on everything!

 

[Scoiatael]

Ford announces today they are upping production from 40k to 150k F150 Lightnings. More bad news for Rivian. Does anyone here remember Global Crossing?

As someone who is likely getting their F150 Lightning in June, this news means nothing to Rivian. They are 2 completely different types of trucks. R1T is in competition against mid-sized trucks.

Plus there are 0 real world reviews of the F150 Lightning yet. So we have no idea how well the range is, or what issues the production models currently have.

 

[997.2]

Can you provide the source for “shortly after the new year” reference?

Everything I saw was worded “early 2022“ which is not very definitive but a real stretch to read as “shortly after the new year”.

Yes, your right it was early 2022. Personally I think we are passed "early". Again, I did ask recently and was told soon "we now expect to release that update in the coming months. Just as before, we'll make sure to provide you an email notification when that feature is launching." If you read into what this says it basically implies they missed the initial deadline.

 

[zipzag]

Lightning's impact on Rivian is simply a non-starter as a fundamental factor. Almost certainly all EV makers producing vehicles with great reviews will sell out through at least 2024. The exception could be Tesla building too many Model Y.

How the financial impact of reduced production affects Rivian's viability is the important issue. Lightning and Cybertruck likely don't matter until the second half of the decade.

 

[997.2]

I think this conversation has run it's course. At least for me. So I"m gonna be done with it. Things are just getting stuck in the weeds of this little itty bitty factoid vs that itty bit factoid. This model make vs that mode make. Yadda yadda. It's getting too tedious. Starting to feel like a Bill Clinton deposition where everyone starts arguing over the meaning of "the." Enough.

I posed the question as a larger thought thought in mind. I'm not against Rivian...I want an R1T!!!! But I'll reiterate, competition is coming fast and furious. Rivian has made some really big missteps and in my mind been a little loose with the facts to both investors and their customers. Others are moving forward & scaling up, introducing new models and Rivian seems to be stuck in reverse. There is a lot of things pointing to a hard road ahead but I hope they succeed. I really do.

And final point is the post was posed AS A QUESTION!!!!!!!!!!! You all seem to think I've made up my mind. I haven't but playing devils advocate is a good exercise.

 

[junkanoo]

As someone who is likely getting their F150 Lightning in June, this news means nothing to Rivian. They are 2 completely different types of trucks. R1T is in competition against mid-sized trucks.

Plus there are 0 real world reviews of the F150 Lightning yet. So we have no idea how well the range is, or what issues the production models currently have.

Point taken on possible issues or driveability of the F150 Lightning. But, each Lightning model has gone through the EPA process so we know the estimated range. Those numbers will be close enough for government work. In bold are when final numbers differed from an earlier estimate.

F-150 Lightning (Targeted EPA-estimated Range)	F-150 Lightning (Final EPA-estimated Range)
F-150 Lightning Pro SR: 230 miles	F-150 Lightning Pro SR: 230 miles
F-150 Lightning Pro ER (Fleet only): 300 miles	F-150 Lightning Pro ER (Fleet only): 320 miles
F-150 Lightning XLT SR: 230 miles	F-150 Lightning XLT SR: 230 miles
F-150 Lightning XLT ER: 300 miles	F-150 Lightning XLT ER: 320 miles
F-150 Lightning Lariat SR: 230 miles	F-150 Lightning Lariat SR: 230 miles
F-150 Lightning Lariat ER: 300 miles	F-150 Lightning Lariat ER: 320 miles
F-150 Lightning Platinum: 280 miles	F-150 Lightning Platinum: 300 miles

 

[SoCal Rob]

Yes, your right it was early 2022. Personally I think we are passed "early". Again, I did ask recently and was told soon "we now expect to release that update in the coming months. Just as before, we'll make sure to provide you an email notification when that feature is launching." If you read into what this says it basically implies they missed the initial deadline.

Rivian’s communications regarding deadlines tend to be less concrete and objective than many would like, and this is a great example. If Rivian is dividing the year into thirds (early/middle/late) then 01/01-04/30 = early, 05/01-08/31 = middle, and 09/01-12/31 = late so they’d still have 5 days to deliver in early 2022. On the other hand, if they are dividing the year in two (early/late) then they have until 06/30 to deliver in early 2022. Since they haven’t given any definition I have been going on the assumption that their self-imposed deadline is 06/30.

I’m just not worrying about whether they are late with the configurator change until around the time I’m in a grocery store trying to figure out what to grill for Independence Day.

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