Interesting EV Article

[jeepfreakedc]

I’ve got an R1T on order, and I’ve got two concerns. One is the recent drop in stock prices and the lower than expected earnings. The second is that it appears in the next few years, battery tech will improve significantly and range and charging time will both increase. When that battery tech does improve, would we be able to retrofit our current R1Ts or is that something that would be cost prohibitive? I know there are quite a few guys in here that have a much better understanding of these issues than I do. What are your thoughts?

https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-future-of-four-wheels-is-all-electric.html

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[Supratachophobia]

Bottom line, everyone keeps saying battery tech is just about to have it's next big thing. And while I don't disagree that solid state batteries are probably the future, no one has yet to be able to show me a production level output plant for solid state batteries that will be online within five years.

I'm not saying that lithium ion is here to stay much longer, but the old reliable 18650 has been been put into mass production now for at least a decade. And GM had obviously gone with their own form factor route but still with similar chemistry.

To sum it up, retrofit is highly unlikely, but it's not like our cars will just suddenly stop working.

As for the stock, it is what it is. Does it directly affect the quality of the vehicle? Not really when they have cash on-hand. I'll start to worry in 4 quarters I suppose.

 

[Rivdog]

Unfortunately, the stock has been dropping since the IPO - it’s not a recent thing.

Better battery tech will always be “coming soon.” Toyota has been on the verge of producing solid state batteries for what, like 10 years now?

Rivian isn’t the fastest for DCFC, but it’s above average and practically speaking, it will make little difference unless you’re constantly road tripping…in which case, an ICE vehicle would be the way to go. Even the most ideal EV’s for road tripping are gonna be much slower overall than an ICE.

Your concerns are understandable, but you’re always gonna be waiting for the next breakthrough if that’s your main concern. I share some of your concerns, but my Riv is my favorite car I’ve ever owned and I’m so happy I didn’t have to wait any longer than I did.

 

[racekarl]

There was an article in the Wall Street Journal a while back that pulled back the curtain a bit on the battery tech "coming soon" issue. To sum it up: batteries have been getting better by 7-8% per year for probably a decade and that looks likely to be the trend that continues for the foreseeable future. The breathless hyperbole about "the next big thing" is a consequence of firms needing to attract venture capital. No one wants to invest in someone saying they can make a battery 7% better when the next lady over is saying she can give EVs a 2000 mile range....

 

[WorldComposting]

As others stated new technology is always on the way but at some point you need to make the leap. I did with Rivian because I like the vision the company has and I needed a larger SUV that could go offroad.

As far as Rivian staying in business I really think Rivian will be around long term. Even if they run out of cash another company will buy them because it would make sense. The biggest company would be Toyota which would gain a fully functional offroad SUV battery frame it could stick in a Lexus and sell for $150K or a Toyota Land Cruiser. Other auto companies would be interested and I'm sure a few tech companies would as well since it would be pocket change to purchase them.

Overall I'm not worried about my vehicle and I'm close to 10,000 miles on it. Will it stink if new batteries come out with more range and faster charging in the same package? Yes it will but that will take time to build and test in other vehicles first. New battery tech is not a light switch where it is discovered and turned on for every vehicle.

 

[COdogman]

Stocks always go up and down (mostly down for Rivian so far) and battery tech is always ABOUT to take a “huge leap” in technology. In other news, the sun came up today in the east and water is wet.

 

[Redline]

1. Please do not use the stock price for any reason to buy or not to buy the vehicle.
2. Forgot the tech. Tech changes constantly in everything in life. You will not be retrofitting your R1T. Just buy it, and enjoy it. Trust me.

 

[BigSkies]

My wife works adjacent to a lot of the newer battery tech companies.

The next generation of batteries is real. It is coming. But it’s more of a slow-burn type thing.

The existing battery chemistries are variations on technology that’s been around for a few decades. There’s been lots of industrial learning, process improvements, and scaling done over many years to get to where we are today.

The new chemistries are different enough that these industrial processes need to be re-invented from scratch. We’re first going to see them in high priced luxury cars. I think the Mercedes G-Wagon will be first in the US based on the press releases I’ve seen. It’s going to take a number of years for the technology to come down in price and filter down to more mass-market cars.

I wouldn’t wait for new battery technology to be available. The current gen of batteries is pretty much at its theoretical limits of performance, although we’ll likely see more higher voltage applications to increase charging speed.

 

[Biturbowned]

Long story short - if the R1T will fit your needs, you’ll love it. The battery tech will get better, absolutely, but the real question is does the current offering fit your life/needs. If you have access to a home-charging solution, it probably will fit your life very well. If you’re really uncomfortable, just lease it and then you can trade it in for something else with minimal risk exposure.

As for the stock price, I personally believe it’s being manipulated and I think Rivian will be the next great American car company success story, but nobody can predict the future.

 

[Nsblifer]

Perfect reason to lease rather than buy=should in all practicality dispel both concerns.

 

[j.w.s]

I’ve got an R1T on order, and I’ve got two concerns. One is the recent drop in stock prices and the lower than expected earnings. The second is that it appears in the next few years, battery tech will improve significantly and range and charging time will both increase. When that battery tech does improve, would we be able to retrofit our current R1Ts or is that something that would be cost prohibitive? I know there are quite a few guys in here that have a much better understanding of these issues than I do. What are your thoughts?

https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-future-of-four-wheels-is-all-electric.html

Do not plan on being able to upgrade to a better battery, or motor, or inverter in a car you already own. The tech will get better, and later versions of all EVs will get the latest tech, but it'll never make sense - either to Rivian or to you - to retrofit an existing car.

What if you had NOT bought a 2014 Tesla model S because it had 270 miles of claimed range, and you were told that better range was just around the corner? It's now ten years later, 2024, and the Model S claimed range is indeed 87 miles better. Were those 87 miles of range worth waiting a decade for? Most people would say no.

Oh, and when that better battery/motor/inverter tech is finally available to buy, there will then be an EVEN BETTER tech just two years away, and so on, forever.

 

[CardiacR1S]

What about software or hardware (heat pump) upgrades to increase Rivian range?

 

[SDH]

You get about 300 miles of range with the current battery. What giant leap are you waiting for?

Also, if RIVN shares drop 20%, that doesn't mean your car is now worth 20% less. If you're really worried about them going bust, Aston Martin have gone bust 7 times in my lifetime.

Just buy or lease. Life's too short to be worrying.

 

[emoore]

What about software or hardware (heat pump) upgrades to increase Rivian range?

Heat pump won’t really increase max range. It will decrease the range lost in the colder months.

 

[usulio]

My Rivian fits my needs right now (and then some). Charging infrastructure is getting better, not worse. That means my Rivian is only getting better too. I'll be happy with it for years to come regardless of what new tech hits the market.

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