Late 2021 preorder deliveries

[Atlrivian]

First, congrats to everyone who gets a truck. My musings have to do with Rivian, not y'all.

Now to the meat: Why are people who preordered in 11/21 already getting VINs?

Some background: It was estimated by this forum a while back the preorder split was 60:40 R1T:R1S based on user submissions. I bet that number has widened as the S was pushed farther out. As of 12/21 only 20% of Ts were Max per RJ, with many of those swapping to Larges as the Max gets pushed farther out. So of the 60k-ish orders by 11/21, I estimate those orders have turned into a current 70:30 R1T:R1S split and at most 15% Max R1T. This does not account for Explore packages, but based on forum data and Explore delays I think the current ration is 80:20 Adventure: Explore at most.

So back to why order #60k-ish is getting a VIN? I think it's a combination of two things.

1) They have basic "non-adventure" configs. No 20s. No reinforced underbody. MANY people with earlier order dates are getting skipped over due to unacknowledged product shortages (20s, Underbody, OC, etc.) With my guesstimations above, order #60k would at this point be ~60k*0.7*0.8*0.85 (and subtract 9k current trucks produced) ==> currently ~20000th in line for that config. So either there are 20k people with Adventure Large Pack is getting skipped due to supply constraints / location, or...

2) There is also a very significant order attrition rate. I can't estimate this because we don't have even indirect data, but I can't imagine Rivian has skipped ~20k people because they don't have materials or dont live close enough to a SC. My concern with this is if they keep skipping people, pretty soon many of us with 2022 windows are going to get pushed into 2023 or later.

?Great? for Rivian in the short term that they are building trucks. However, I'm not sure this bodes well for them that their supplies are still so tight. If their pattern continues, Rivian will be getting to 2022 order holders this year with the "right" street config and still not have delivered to 2018/2019 preorders with adventure configs. So much for being an "adventure" focused company.

There are a lot of people with multiple electric vehicle preorders who have said first manufacturer to deliver wins. I want a truck, but I also want Rivian to succeed. They are going to have to figure out supply constraints if they want to slow order attrition and stay a non-subsidiary of Amazon.

---------------------------‐

Disclaimer: this is my own personal opinion, with data taken from official Rivian statements, anecdotes from Forum users, sleuthing from forum users over the past few years, and sample of 3600 forum preorder submissions.

Sponsored

 

[lostpacket]

Local service center capacity to support buyers I think matters a lot too.

Plus a lot of it depends on how many Gear Guard Gary memes you've posted.

hang on while I use your thread to skip ahead a bit:

 

[AdamUCF]

They have basic "non-adventure" configs. No 20s. No reinforced underbody

December ‘21, have my truck, and fall into this category. Also super close to a SC and I think that helps as well.

 

[ERguy]

Oh man... If you are frustrated with late 2021 preorders taking delivery, don't look into the delivery timing too hard or you will start to see examples of people who ordered this spring and already took delivery. Then you will really be confused about Rivian's delivery lottery system.

 

[pfbz]

It's not rocket science....

1. Configurations that match what they are actually building lots of (black interior, large battery, 4-motor, adventure pack, no reinforced under-tray, 21" wheels, with motorized tonneau)
2. Near a service center so "adjusting" their early production issues is less costly to Rivian.

Insist on the configs that are either flat out not being built (light interior, XL battery, 2-motor) or an option that is being built but have higher backlog (eg: 20" wheels), or remove something that is on all the trucks they are building (motorized tonneau) and you will wait longer.

If your not near a service center, that's just bad luck. But good for Rivian to prioritize those that are. IMHO it is crucial they control costs as quickly and effectively as possible for long term survival.

I am absolutely thrilled with my truck, and have zero regrets about going with for instance 21" tires to get my delivery bumped WAY up.

 

[mpw81]

My order was 10/21. My estimates have always been Q4. I take delivery this weekend, which is almost August. So it's really only 2 months early, technically. I'm also 5 miles from the SC.

I totally get and feel for orders before me and feel super lucky but when you start thinking about all the R1S orders, the max packs, the OC interiors, the people who live so far from an SC to realistically deliver or service.... I think the numbers certainly start decreasing.

 

[Gator42]

Local service center capacity to support buyers I think matters a lot too.

This, yes. Consider the possibility it is impossible to overweight the importance of proximity to a Service Center with a minimum acceptable level of staffing…

(…it leads to Rivian focusing on electric urban adventure vehicle production but no matter to Seattle and Laguna.)

 

[Marchin_MTB]

I was a 10/21 order with Oct-Dec window. Received R1T late June. We are very happy with it. Pleasantly surprised to have taken delivery.

21”, no underbody shield, black interior. Agreed to a truck with automatic tonneau. Within 30 miles of service center.

I agree with all points above but an additional piece of speculation I have is that Rivian needs to show that average delivery time is decreasing. An effective way to do that is to sprinkle in deliveries for some very recent orders that meet the other criteria discussed above.

 

[Cavalryscout18]

Also, for all of those that ordered post March 31, I am sure Rivian doesn’t mind throwing in a few of those once in a while to help with margins. They are happy to skip the line and pay a premium while Rivian is happy to sell it to them at the higher price. Win win for them. I can see that being frustrating, though, for legacy pre-order holders. Im waiting on my R1S so closer to 2024 at this point so not as invested yet but as my time approaches, I’m sure I’ll start to get antsy.

 

[Craigins]

1. Configurations that match what they are actually building lots of (black interior, large battery, 4-motor, adventure pack, no reinforced under-tray, 21" wheels, with motorized tonneau)
2. Near a service center so "adjusting" their early production issues is less costly to Rivian.

Insist on the configs that are either flat out not being built (light interior, XL battery, 2-motor) or an option that is being built but have higher backlog (eg: 20" wheels), or remove something that is on all the trucks they are building (motorized tonneau) and you will wait longer.

So aside from OC quality issues, Rivian has officially denied specific parts shortage.

So the question to you 1) why are they choosing to build configs to build lots of that do not match what the earlier perorder holders want.

 

[joelster]

I was a 10/21 order with Oct-Dec window. Received R1T late June. We are very happy with it. Pleasantly surprised to have taken delivery.

21”, no underbody shield, black interior. Agreed to a truck with automatic tonneau. Within 30 miles of service center.

I agree with all points above but an additional piece of speculation I have is that Rivian needs to show that average delivery time is decreasing. An effective way to do that is to sprinkle in deliveries for some very recent orders that meet the other criteria discussed above.

This is exactly correct. I ordered in August '21 and received my truck on June 30th. I changed my configuration and made compromises to get the truck here sooner. And there is a services center here in PDX (where my truck is now sitting).

If you are in Rural Colorado waiting for a Discover package, you are gonna be waiting a long time.

 

[AdamUCF]

So aside from OC quality issues, Rivian has officially denied specific parts shortage.

So the question to you 1) why are they choosing to build configs to build lots of that do not match what the earlier perorder holders want.

I have a conspiracy theory that the 21” wheel thing is based on some sort of regulation that X amount of the vehicles produced have to meet that range in order for them to advertise that as the range of the vehicle. In other words they can’t just make some completely undesirable option that gets higher range and then sell none of them and keep claiming 314 miles. If all the trucks built were on 20s they’d have to publish the range as 280 miles.

 

[Craigins]

I have a conspiracy theory that the 21” wheel thing is based on some sort of regulation that X amount of the vehicles produced have to meet that range in order for them to advertise that as the range of the vehicle. In other words they can’t just make some completely undesirable option that gets higher range and then sell none of them and keep claiming 314 miles. If all the trucks built were on 20s they’d have to publish the range as 280 miles.

Makes sense. Probably up there with a quota order of 21"s from Pirelli since they are custom designed. Probably required a minimum purchase agreement.

 

[Attesan997]

I have a conspiracy theory that the 21” wheel thing is based on some sort of regulation that X amount of the vehicles produced have to meet that range in order for them to advertise that as the range of the vehicle. In other words they can’t just make some completely undesirable option that gets higher range and then sell none of them and keep claiming 314 miles. If all the trucks built were on 20s they’d have to publish the range as 280 miles.

I don't know enough about EPA testing protocol to say you're incorrect but Rivian isn't the first car manufacturer to test and get EPA certs on one wheel/tire combo but offer others. In fact I believe many reviewers who do know this stuff have cited as long as you test on a less efficient setup so the vehicle has a higher potential rating it's all good. Based on some of the 320-340 ranges that have been floating out there on the 21s the EPA test could've been done in a city/highway mix on the 20 ATs as the "worst" case scenario.

 

[mkg3]

Well, if you insist on speculating on things none of us know for sure, here it goes:

1) All Canadian preorders are pushed out (I don't know how large the % of total but there seems to be sufficient number) - Rivian has yet to or just filed for homologation for Canadian sales. I've read that September 2022 is the target to start delivery in Canada.

2) I have always believed that T orders have priority because Rivian is competing with Ford and GM for eTruck, since almost everyone with T has reservation with F and GM.

3) If you populate Ts into metropolitan areas that are historically high volume truck market (did you know that SoCal is the number 1 pickup truck market in US?) so that exposure can help market Rivian trucks.

4) As commonly mentioned, service center is important factor too for all the obvious reasons.

5) Whatever batch they made at any given time when to those that had that particular configuration in (3) above.

So there you go.... YMMV/kWh

Sponsored