Not looking too good for continued operations beyond 2025

[Tpaguy]

What troubles has Rivian had ramping up?

From what I can tell they are still on schedule for their ramp up curve that they announced in the S1 when going public.

Earlier this year they even pivoted the distribution of capacity at the plant, likely due to the decrease in immediate orders from Amazon.

https://dot.la/amp/rivian-delays-r1s-2657509807

There have definitely been delays and challenges as they have ramped up. Their window for timing deliveries has gotten even more critical with the macroeconomics of interest rates, buyer confidence etc.

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[Craigins]

https://dot.la/amp/rivian-delays-r1s-2657509807

There have definitely been delays and challenges as they have ramped up. Their window for timing deliveries has gotten even more critical with the macroeconomics of interest rates, buyer confidence etc.

With the only stated production ramp up being full factory capacity @150k veh/yr at the end of 2023, i haven't seen any news about trouble ramping up.

Mainly you see articles like that where analysts believe they should be ramping up faster, but not meeting some random analyst predictions is not trouble ramping up.

 

[Tpaguy]

With the only stated production ramp up being full factory capacity @150k veh/yr at the end of 2023, i haven't seen any news about trouble ramping up.

Mainly you see articles like that where analysts believe they should be ramping up faster, but not meeting some random analyst predictions is not trouble ramping up.

I think we’re talking about two different things. All good though, what has occurred already in the past is a moot point - it’s what’s to come is the most concerning for me as a buyer and shareholder.

Rivian has a larger cash reserve than nearly any other EV maker out there (aside from Tesla). They just need to hit goals and hope the economy doesn’t cause them to go off track with the R1 line and get the R2 line up and running at capacity before capital runs dry.

 

[daeHelkcunK]

Apart from being partnered with Amazon and having a far better product than other manufacturers, Rivian has no legacy costs which should give them about a 30% advantage on everyone but Tesla. So the product could be 30% better or 30% more profitable. (or combination of the two)

 

[zajak1]

Nice FT article - https://www.ft.com/content/ff4002a9-57a3-448c-af49-f665f38340ae

- Rivian's CFO expects the company to earn a gross profit in 2023...enough cash to maintain operations through the end of 2025
- Rivian has become a key player in the economy of Normal, Illinois
- Market capitalization has dropped from $162bn to $12.5bn, yikes!
- Targets to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023
- plenty of shortfalls in Rivian's ability to meet expectations while the market sees increasing competition

I was thinking about why I don't have my pre-ordered Rivian and it's because so many changes were made that the product is no longer what I wanted when i engaged the pre-order (may 2019). I can't be alone in how I feel.

What's the plan here? Ive been a fan for so long but this is just isn't feeling recession proof (as a product or as an investment). It's hard to say when enough is enough; macro or micro indicators have all been pointing in the direction of parting ways.

Are others just riding this out (to what ever exit becomes available)?

 

[zajak1]

Nice FT article - https://www.ft.com/content/ff4002a9-57a3-448c-af49-f665f38340ae

- Rivian's CFO expects the company to earn a gross profit in 2023...enough cash to maintain operations through the end of 2025
- Rivian has become a key player in the economy of Normal, Illinois
- Market capitalization has dropped from $162bn to $12.5bn, yikes!
- Targets to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023
- plenty of shortfalls in Rivian's ability to meet expectations while the market sees increasing competition

I was thinking about why I don't have my pre-ordered Rivian and it's because so many changes were made that the product is no longer what I wanted when i engaged the pre-order (may 2019). I can't be alone in how I feel.

What's the plan here? Ive been a fan for so long but this is just isn't feeling recession proof (as a product or as an investment). It's hard to say when enough is enough; macro or micro indicators have all been pointing in the direction of parting ways.

Are others just riding this out (to what ever exit becomes available)?

The R1T is fantastic...it's better than what you pre-ordered..Don't let all the whiners in here get you down..Regarding the company, they have an enormous amount of cash, lots of tail wind at this point and starting to reap the benefits of the R&D $ they have spent to date..Stay the course my friend, and buy the R1T...Best machine I've ever owned!!

 

[Acoustic71]

Apple is DOOMED! Apple is DOOMED! Apple is DOOMED!

Oh, wait....

Rivian is DOOMED! Rivian is DOOMED! Rivian is DOOMED!

 

[CascadianApe]

Amazon takes over by 2026...

 

[zajak1]

Here's a similar article from Mrs Technica not behind the paywall:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/0...e-town-that-holds-the-keys-to-rivians-future/

And it's been said during the earnings call that their current cash and cash equivalent reserve can take them through 2025. They plan to be profitable in 2024.

Regardless, Rivian WILL need to raise cash to continue beyond 2025. Most likely secondary issue (dilution) and credit line + more debt/bond sales. The fate of the company, as we know it today, will most likely be placed on R2 success.

You do not know this.....you're only repeating what you've heard from analysts and whiners on this forum. Enduro has already surprised many with it's lower costs..Look at Rivian's/RJs history...When they showed up the first time in the public domain with their R1T, NO ONE KNEW ANYTHING ABOUT THEM...Rivian is not Tesla...It's a different beast run by a normal individual, not a carnival barker...They are not a marketing machine, they are a company ....stay the course...and stick with the facts

 

[Nago]

Hands down, with the exception of range, the R1T and R1S beat virtually all other electric vehicles on the market in all categories, design, capability, quality and they are just cooler. I am confident they will get the business end worked out. Too good a product to fail. Just my 2 cents.

 

[mkg3]

You do not know this.....you're only repeating what you've heard from analysts and whiners on this forum. Enduro has already surprised many with it's lower costs..Look at Rivian's/RJs history...When they showed up the first time in the public domain with their R1T, NO ONE KNEW ANYTHING ABOUT THEM...Rivian is not Tesla...It's a different beast run by a normal individual, not a carnival barker...They are not a marketing machine, they are a company ....stay the course...and stick with the facts

You do know that, if you actually read my previous posts (not expecting anyone to do so) that I do not listen to analysts or follow others opinions on this forum or any others for that matter. Furthermore, I often mention that Rivian comparison to Tesla is meaningless as they are two very different companies.

You might want to read the 10Q and listen to the earrings call yourself. Furthermore, I've spent most of my career in engineering and manufacturing so I also know what it takes to design and manufacture products from end-to-end. Its not uncommon for a startup to stay in stealth mode until they have products to reveal with critical mass at hand.

With that, perhaps you might want to take a look at the facts, as you say....

 

[zajak1]

ehhh... i read 10Qs and listen to all the quarterly calls..the CFO has never said they need to raise money in any specific year. ( what cap structure etc are all TBA)...That is something wall st has implied, specifically Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley...There are many unknowns in this journey. The only thing we really know is the excellent product, and strong management team (honest and pretty transparent compared to Musk). We also know they are ramping production finally and the R2 is critical to long term success....Once again, you're extrapolating from WS analysts, short sellers that pervade this and other sites and what appears to be your general negative bias toward RIVN...and since you're being so snarky, it matches most of the engineers I know who are know it alls, done it alls etc...

 

[achanster]

I have over 3000 shares and to say the least "very upside down" on them. That said, I absolutely LOVE my R1T that I have had nearly 1 year and ordered an R1S at full price. I will wait for the rebound which I believe will come in a few years, which I was expecting a 3-5 year hold min from the start. Why? because the product is amazing, The company mission is perfect for todays demographic, RJ, unlike Elon, is a guy that everyone can stand behind rather than a love him or hate him CEO personality.

 

[ironpig]

Don't feed the FUD trolls. Most of these Rivian doom articles are one step away from being written by AI and are all clickbait.

 

[rlawsoncrew]

Nice FT article - https://www.ft.com/content/ff4002a9-57a3-448c-af49-f665f38340ae

- Rivian's CFO expects the company to earn a gross profit in 2023...enough cash to maintain operations through the end of 2025
- Rivian has become a key player in the economy of Normal, Illinois
- Market capitalization has dropped from $162bn to $12.5bn, yikes!
- Targets to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023
- plenty of shortfalls in Rivian's ability to meet expectations while the market sees increasing competition

I was thinking about why I don't have my pre-ordered Rivian and it's because so many changes were made that the product is no longer what I wanted when i engaged the pre-order (may 2019). I can't be alone in how I feel.

What's the plan here? I've been a fan for so long but this is just isn't feeling recession proof (as a product or as an investment). It's hard to say when enough is enough; macro or micro indicators have all been pointing in the direction of parting ways.

Are others just riding this out (to what ever exit becomes available)?

I have a very similar opinion. Not sure what the ramifications of them going broke and leaving me an orphan are. (I had that happen on the first computer I purchased, an APRICOT, if anyone has heard of that one). It hurt. Likely BK, I'm guessing.

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