Oct-Dec 2022 Deliveries - Delayed?

[atlastracer]

Good question. A target of 10k EDVs had been discussed but I had never heard of 40k R1s being built this year. So maybe this is not much of a hit on the deliveries.

I think that's what is messing up all the reporting on this. They didn't, to my knowledge, ever publish a production estimate for 2022 for R1 platform. They said they would get through all 55k pre-orders (of R1) by end of 2023. So they had a production estimate for 2023 of 55k. On the call - RJ re-iterated that they expect to make that number/timeline still. We don't know if this new 25k number for 2022 is different from their internal projections or not.

If they produce 15k for 2022. They then need to produce 40k more for 2023 to hit their goal. That may be possible *if* they have the parts given that they are running their lines at full speed when they can, and estimate hitting a potential 50k+ a year on the lines if they were not constrained on parts. But it does put pressure on the supply chain issues magically disappearing on Jan 1 2023 for that to work out.

My assumption is that *some* deliveries may slip, particularly the non-LE ones scheduled for H2 2022. Either slip to later in 2022 or early 2023. But we'll have to wait for the mythical account delivery estimator unicorn to know for sure.

Sponsored

 

[SoCal Rob]

I’ve given the whole, “Will Q4 deliveries be delayed?” question some thought and pretty quickly came to what I think is a logical conclusion: NOBODY KNOWS. Given all of the variables at play in the world at this time, delivery estimate reliability for any product quickly decreases as you look further into the future. Given that, 6+ months from now may as well be random.

I think that Rivian is giving the best estimates they can using the information they have available at a point in time and using the conditions at the time the estimate was made.

If you need to make decisions today about a car lease or similar based upon what is likely to happen in 2022Q4 then it’s probably safest to assume that there will be delays.

But it’s not certain. Let’s say you reserved late in June of 2021 with a fairly rare color combo (Compass Yellow with Forest Edge) and 22” wheels. You currently have an estimate of 2022Q4. As luck would have it, we reach the beginning of Q3 and Rivian is suddenly unable to get <two most popular paint colors>, Mountain Black interiors, and 20” tires. All of a sudden your truck is more likely to be built because they have the parts to build it.

So your, “OMG I’m being pushed to 2023!” truck is ready for delivery in September of 2022. In the meantime, people scheduled for 2022Q3 but with a configuration Rivian can’t build get pushed back. I’m going on the assumption that if they have materials to build any vehicles at all then they will build what they can first and then fulfill in the order reservations came in.

There are so many ways this can play out because of the craziness of getting raw materials and components in today’s conditions. I’m assuming that my window of 2022Q4 is good right up to the next time we’re saying “Happy New Year!” or I receive a revision from Rivian, whichever comes first.

 

[Craigins]

There is clearly a lot of information floating out there, so I may be way off on this:

Wasn't the 2022 goal to get to a production RATE of about 50,000/year or roughly 1,000/week by the end of this year? They weren't targeting getting through the (at that time) 55,000 pre-orders until the end of 2023, right?

Based on those number I don't think they planned on making significantly more than the 25,000 we just heard about. I think those of us in the Oct-Dec window may get pushed a little, but I am still hopeful for Q1 2023 at the latest.

Please let me know if I am way off on this because I have had enough disappointment already.

So for about a day around the initial S-1 launch, It had been stated that they expected to get all pre-orders delivered by end of 2022. This was QUICKLY corrected. So if people are taking that to mean 41k pre orders (# at the time of the mis-statement) + 10k EDV = 50k vehicles.

The correction put the pre-orders to be delivered by end of 2023, with the full factory production rate achieved at the end of 2023.

I was hoping for around 20k R1 by the end of 2022. That would put their production rate in a decent position to meet the full production rate at the end of 2023. However supply chain constraints are limiting the numbers.

EDVs are the mystery. 10k to be delivered in 2022. Nothing says they can't do more than the 10k though.

 

[Bullitt]

I’m defintely curious where I land in the estimated deliveries. The day Rivian pulled my configuration I was playing with R1S, explore, max pack… though that was literally the day they pulled the info. Before that I was R1T Adventure, large pack, LA Silver, offroad and BM interior and the day after I was back at this R1T config. Haven’t really changed it much at all.

The date I got for the R1S explore, max was 2H 2023, but based on others with my R1T config, location and similar order date (Nov 2021), Im guessing it was supposed to be Oct-Dec 2022. I wont know till they make this update and not holding my breath… its a moving target

 

[AllInev]

I think that's what is messing up all the reporting on this. They didn't, to my knowledge, ever publish a production estimate for 2022 for R1 platform. They said they would get through all 55k pre-orders (of R1) by end of 2023. So they had a production estimate for 2023 of 55k. On the call - RJ re-iterated that they expect to make that number/timeline still. We don't know if this new 25k number for 2022 is different from their internal projections or not.

If they produce 15k for 2022. They then need to produce 40k more for 2023 to hit their goal. That may be possible *if* they have the parts given that they are running their lines at full speed when they can, and estimate hitting a potential 50k+ a year on the lines if they were not constrained on parts. But it does put pressure on the supply chain issues magically disappearing on Jan 1 2023 for that to work out.

My assumption is that *some* deliveries may slip, particularly the non-LE ones scheduled for H2 2022. Either slip to later in 2022 or early 2023. But we'll have to wait for the mythical account delivery estimator unicorn to know for sure.

Yes, I've been trying to figure out if Rivian ever gave or hinted at an R1 production estimate for 2022. I haven't seen any real evidence of one. Have others?

If so, perhaps the 25k estimate we got yesterday is an indication of some confidence in the current delivery windows?

 

[Craigins]

Yes, I've been trying to figure out if Rivian ever gave or hinted at an R1 production estimate for 2022. I haven't seen any real evidence of one. Have others?

If so, perhaps the 25k estimate we got yesterday is an indication of some confidence in the current delivery windows?

They have never given an estimate on 2022 R1 production and still haven't.

The 25k is total vehicles, no mention of the split between R1 and EDV.

The only estimate we have is all preorders by 2023.

 

[AllInev]

FYI, just chatted with CS about my Oct-Dec 2022 delivery window. They said there’s been no change.

 

[bd5400]

FYI, just chatted with CS about my Oct-Dec 2022 delivery window. They said there’s been no change.

As much as I hope that is true, because I have the same window, that just means CS hasn't been told about a change. They will not be told about a delay until Rivian decides that they are ok with CS telling customers that there is a delay.

 

[Zoidz]

The call letter states " As of March 8, 2022, we have built over 100 pre-production units of our new drive units on our pilot manufacturing line and are executing validation testing for both consumer and commercial vehicle applications "

I read that as Rivian has build 100 pre production motors (I guess motor = drive unit?). Not clear that all worked correctly, were the same size/output/voltage, not clear that any or all were installed in a working vehicle. or how many could be used for validation testing. I wouldn't assume anything beyond what Rivian specifically states. Just don't know either way.

Agree. Speaking from my engineering/manufacturing experience, this Rivian statement means 100 pre-production motors, not vehicles with the motors installed. Validation testing almost certainly means they have them set up in a lab and are running them at various speeds, loads, temperatures, etc. to validate that the design is correct, or needs tweaking. It's likely these units will be torn down and examined for wear, etc. after the validation period.

 

[Zoidz]

In light of Rivian's Q4 earnings call production forecast, many (hopefully not all?) of us currently in this Oct-Dec delivery window will probably be bumped into one of the 2023 delivery windows.

I'm in the Q4 2022 Window also. I think it's way to early to guess or assume anything about that window slipping. Things could improve or get worse in the supply chain in the next 5 months.

 

[AllInev]

As much as I hope that is true, because I have the same window, that just means CS hasn't been told about a change. They will not be told about a delay until Rivian decides that they are ok with CS telling customers that there is a delay.

Absolutely agree. Just posted that as an FYI. It would be great if others contact CS with the same question.

There’s no need to be obnoxious, just ask for confirmation. It’s good for CS to know we’re actively waiting. ?

 

[Mysta]

Guess it's possible the original date was already taking that into account.

 

[Attesan997]

Absolutely agree. Just posted that as an FYI. It would be great if others contact CS with the same question.

There’s no need to be obnoxious, just ask for confirmation. It’s good for CS to know we’re actively waiting. ?

Not to be a jerk but this is a complete waste of time. Unless of course one has time to kill. They’re going to say everything is on track until they’re instructed to say otherwise. As this is my window too, I’m extremely hopeful and optimistic but given the issues so far I’d truly be surprised with no unforeseen delays from here on out.

 

[Gsxr150]

I spoke with customer service and they told me no change either. So, I asked if they have seen ANY changes for ANY customers, and the answer was NO. So, the point is Rivian hasn't updated vehicle production forecasts - preorder holders have not seen any adjustments yet.

 

[crashmtb]

I spoke with customer service and they told me no change either. So, I asked if they have seen ANY changes for ANY customers, and the answer was NO. So, the point is Rivian hasn't updated vehicle production forecasts - preorder holders have not seen any adjustments yet.

Customer service likely doesn’t see production forecasts or schedules at any level of detail.

All they get is if there is/isn’t a delay to tell customers about, and what they see going through the plant.

Sponsored