R1S demand slowing down?

[SANZC02]

Was there a green one there? That's mine! lol.


I think people are expecting sales to follow ramps like the Model 3 had which is obviously not going to happen for a $100k SUV/Truck. Sales will taper off at a good level for a vehicle at this price point and I'm sure that will trigger a lot of "demand is falling" stories. The bread and butter was always meant to be the R2 platform and until that turns on, we'll see overall sales slow in acceleration and sky is falling critics come pouring out. Likely a bump in demand when the refresh comes out but I think people need to temper their expectations on output. This was never meant to be a large volume car, but something that gets Rivian on the map and sets the stage for a mass market vehicle.

I agree, there are only so many potential sales in vehicles approaching 100k. For comparison, here are the US sales by year for the Tesla Model X

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[jjswan33]

However, at that time, the configuration didn’t give an option for a quad-motor so we held off. Has that since changed?

No it isn't. They stated that they would be building large and max pack in the two dual motor configurations in the next six months. That said as of a few days ago they did have many QM SUVs available in their shop.

 

[GogglesPisano]

I agree, there are only so many potential sales in vehicles approaching 100k. For comparison, here are the US sales by year for the Tesla Model X

And considering we're already seeing VINs in the 30k range for the R1S in this short of time since start of production, I'd say it's doing amazingly well compared to the X. Granted it's more of an actual SUV which probably has broader appeal versus the X which is more coupe like.

 

[AllInev]

Was there a green one there? That's mine! lol.


I think people are expecting sales to follow ramps like the Model 3 had which is obviously not going to happen for a $100k SUV/Truck. Sales will taper off at a good level for a vehicle at this price point and I'm sure that will trigger a lot of "demand is falling" stories. The bread and butter was always meant to be the R2 platform and until that turns on, we'll see overall sales slow in acceleration and sky is falling critics come pouring out. Likely a bump in demand when the refresh comes out but I think people need to temper their expectations on output. This was never meant to be a large volume car, but something that gets Rivian on the map and sets the stage for a mass market vehicle.

Agree. I also think we'll see Rivian offer leasing on the R1S once production and demand reach parity --similar to the leasing now available to R1T buyers.

 

[Tahoe Man]

I see more and more of them around my area. Frankly I think the R1S is a good looking vehicle. Demand wise, I think that depends where the job and stock market go on the future, just like everything else.

 

[mikehmb]

Was there a green one there? That's mine! lol.


I think people are expecting sales to follow ramps like the Model 3 had which is obviously not going to happen for a $100k SUV/Truck. Sales will taper off at a good level for a vehicle at this price point and I'm sure that will trigger a lot of "demand is falling" stories. The bread and butter was always meant to be the R2 platform and until that turns on, we'll see overall sales slow in acceleration and sky is falling critics come pouring out. Likely a bump in demand when the refresh comes out but I think people need to temper their expectations on output. This was never meant to be a large volume car, but something that gets Rivian on the map and sets the stage for a mass market vehicle.

There were several green ones! Seemed to be a popular color, but I did see blue, red, and silver. Green definitely represented - looks great in person.

The “go in high” strategy is well understood at this point. The R2 will be the volume seller. I’m not sure why everyone thinks the sky is falling, except that this is the internet so who knows what’s a bot and what’s a human.

 

[RivRyan]

I don't think the sky is falling. At the same time, I'm sure Rivian is hoping/expecting demand will meet production at current prices. If the demand curve is indeed lower than expected, that would be damaging.

But I don't think we know nearly enough to assess whether that's realistic.

 

[SANZC02]

I don't think the sky is falling. At the same time, I'm sure Rivian is hoping/expecting demand will meet production at current prices. If the demand curve is indeed lower than expected, that would be damaging.

But I don't think we know nearly enough to assess whether that's realistic.

I’m curious to see the delta between build and delivered for q4 23 and q1 24, I would assume they will build excess so they have vehicles to deliver during the shutdown.

 

[1T2022]

The R2 will be in production in 2026. Hopefully Rivian improves a lot on cost of R1 production. Otherwise, they have to raise fund again. They are still losing a lot of $

 

[dleepnw]

I'm considering trading in my R1T for an R1S, and placed an R1S reservation on Nov 8, 2023. Today I checked my account and I have the ability to configure. Really surprised I was able to configure so quickly. I wonder if the demand is slowing, or they are just trying to match existing vehicles as quickly as possible for the end of year results.

WTF. i reserved an R1S in July 2022 and nothing. is Rivian back to the "Rivian Lottery" again?

 

[RivRyan]

WTF. i reserved an R1S in July 2022 and nothing. is Rivian back to the "Rivian Lottery" again?

You should start a thread and keep us up to date on what's going on with your reservation. Are you i a location more than 300 miles from a service center?

 

[Supratachophobia]

My guess is that at the point demand slows significantly, they'll start to do advertising, which they seem to do very little of at this point.

Or leasing R1S

 

[PappaBolt]

If the sales ramp follows the R1T, we’ll see gimmicks like free chargers.: Demand lever number one.

Back when we saw the price increase it was pinned on supply chain costs. Those costs have come down but the higher price remains. Probably due to the big backlog they are working through.

If demand drops before the R2 line comes out, expect to see more demand levers and perhaps even price decreases.

But we’re still a ways out from such decisions.

 

[Supratachophobia]

WTF. i reserved an R1S in July 2022 and nothing. is Rivian back to the "Rivian Lottery" again?

Existing owners might get preference?

 

[TollKeeper]

I got re-invited to the shop today..

There are 153 R1S configs available
7 are Launch Editions
4 Dual Motor Performance
15 Dual Motor
19 Max Packs

Unfortunately for me, none are in the config I want.. One is really close, but I do not want the green interior!

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