R1S demand slowing down?

[MGA]

I think, while name recognition is slowly increasing, Rivian may start to eat into shares of other cars in 80K-100K range, including foreign brands, Big 3 cars...

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[JustPokingAround]

I have two vehicles with leases ending in May 2024. I've been pushing off delivery of my R1S (pre-price hike) until then. If they offer leasing by then, I will almost certainly lease even though I have the lower pricing to purchase.

 

[Rob Stark]

The other thing slowing demand is Rivian has announced an overhaul/update for mid 2024. If you’re paying $90-$100k, you probably don’t want to do that knowing there will be a better product in six months.

Tesla generally didn’t preannounce the updates. So you had angry customers, but pretty consistent demand.

The update is to lower cost.

Doesn't necessarily mean a price drop or better value for the customer.

Or even better specifications. Then again if I were CEO I would wait to announce that.

 

[Scoiatael]

I got shop access today, without having to ask anyone. A lot of quad motor R1S, all the dual motor ones are max pack. Its tempting, but I can't justify spending 10k more for max pack.

 

[bentsauce]

153 now showing in the shop today! The number keeps increasing, not going down as I would expect. Seems like a unicorn here as well (priced at $90,250)....

 

[Supratachophobia]

The other thing slowing demand is Rivian has announced an overhaul/update for mid 2024. If you’re paying $90-$100k, you probably don’t want to do that knowing there will be a better product in six months.

Tesla generally didn’t preannounce the updates. So you had angry customers, but pretty consistent demand.

I personally would like to wait to see what the refresh brings. I'm going to assume higher quality cameras, access possibly heat pump. I'm not so sure on major changes to be battery packs, despite what they're CFO said. Keep in mind, this was the person still quoting max pack at 180kwh after the cell change had already been decided and leaked internally.

 

[GeraltofRivian]

153 now showing in the shop today! The number keeps increasing, not going down as I would expect. Seems like a unicorn here as well (priced at $90,250)....

These things will fluctuate from time to time. To put things in context - this is only a couple of days of production (16k produced per quarter assuming 50/50 split between R1T and R1S). When inventory really starts to grow is when they’ll start pushing price or incentives to move these cars.

Though they are very clearly at the end of their post price increase order book. So I’ll be taking delivery knowing full well we’re at most a couple of months away from them bringing down price either explicitly or implicitly (e.g. below market financing terms or free throw ins).

 

[GATA614]

I'm not sure that the demand is slowing down as much as their ability to produce vehicles is catching up. Eventually they'd get to the point that they'd have inventory - few car companies have no inventory at all and a wait of months (or longer) to get any vehicle. At $80k or $100k, the R1 is expensive and serving a smaller market than the R2 will.

I suspect all of us later orders getting Shop access right now is a push to meet the extra 4k cars they've said they plan to deliver in each of the last 2 quarters' earnings calls (and clear out the Bosch motors while they're at it). The Shop is from what I can tell largely higher cost cars - quads or max packs, with just a few dual motor / large packs showing up in it. I wouldn't read a ton more into it than trying to move higher margin cars to eager buyers to meet or beat the street's expectations.

 

[bentsauce]

153 now showing in the shop today! The number keeps increasing, not going down as I would expect. Seems like a unicorn here as well (priced at $90,250)....

Already gone!

 

[retart13]

I personally would like to wait to see what the refresh brings. I'm going to assume higher quality cameras, access possibly heat pump. I'm not so sure on major changes to be battery packs, despite what they're CFO said. Keep in mind, this was the person still quoting max pack at 180kwh after the cell change had already been decided and leaked internally.

I just sold my R1S pre price hike with tax credit this month. Part of me still misses it, but it wasn't the right time for me to upgrade. I think with some tasteful updates in a refresh (subwoofer!, 800V charging??), I'd consider getting back in. That or a significantly discounted current gen R1S in a year or two that is less than a year old. If Rivian's follow the EV/Tesla price depreciation curve, I think we can see some action in 1-2 years.

 

[crisante]

I think you’re seeing a lot of slowdown of higher priced vehicles in general due to interest rate increases as well as general inflation. My wife and I were planning on shopping for a new vehicle (most likely the R1T) this month but decided to hold off on the extra purchase because pretty much every other bill we have has gone up significantly and interest rates have pushed payments even higher. I think a lot of people are feeling that right now.

 

[golden_frog]

Definitely true for me. I was 100% ready to buy at 3-4% rate, but already owning a nice low milage ICE and with the current rates, going to hold off.

I would probably lease if they offer it on the R1S

 

[mkg3]

The old rule about financing a vehicle is 20/4/10.

20% down payment
4 yrs (48 months) financing
10% of take home pay for payments, insurance, maintenance and gas/charging

Typical R1S $100K, so simple math says after tax, license and registration say $110K (yeah I know some states have no sales tax or that registration is dirt cheap. but a typical state and to keep the math simple):

$22K down payment leaving a balance of $88K. Finance for 48 months at 6% results in monthly payment of $2,067/mo. If you follow the the 10% of take home to cover payments (I won't bother with the insurance, or charging costs), you need to take home $20,670/month or gross of roughly $28K/month ~ thereabout or make $300LK+/yr.

Not outrageous if two people are working earning good wages. Don't forget kids, vacations, housing and other expenses though, not to mention other vehicles...

The chart shows the net worth of Americans by age group and percentiles.

The top 10% probably buys it outright when the interest rate get to todays rates. They would put the money to work elsewhere if interest rate was low or free money.

So the majority of financing is done by the bottom 75~90% and you can easily see that the price of R1S become a significant hit to their net worth. In other words, the liability of carry the loan becomes much more burdensome.

So is R1S demand down, you bet cha.

 

[djsider2]

153 now showing in the shop today! The number keeps increasing, not going down as I would expect. Seems like a unicorn here as well (priced at $90,250)....

How did you know there's 153 in the shop? My /list page is infinite scroll and they don't list a number

 

[bentsauce]

How did you know there's 153 in the shop? My /list page is infinite scroll and they don't list a number

I just kept scrolling until it stopped refreshing/adding to the bottom. Then did a simple Find function to search how many times R1S showed up. For the trim and other details, I copy/pasted the entire page into excel via text format.

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