Rivian Ambassadorship... and answering "do you think they're [Rivian] going to make it?"

[RivianMatt]

I live in the SF Bay Area, where there are a lot of Rivians and a lot of people who know of Rivian and express interest in Rivian. I was as my 13-year old son's flag football game this afternoon, and as I turned into the parking lot, I realized that I was one of four Rivians (one T and 3 S's) all within a few hundred feet of each other. But more to my point, as I talked to various friends and acquaintances during the game, all of whom know that we have a Rivian, I got into three separate conversations about Rivian - all conversations with people who clearly are intrigued by Rivian. I've consistently been a brand ambassador ever since we get our R1S, and today was no exception.

But for the first time today, I had to answer to a "do you think they're going to make it?" question. Tough one, and I had a difficult time answering it. Although I was pretty confident in my "yes", ultimately all I could say was that a) we love our R1S, b) it has had some hiccups that you'd expect from a start up car manufacturer, c) we can't wait to see the R2 reveal next week, as the R2 is to Rivian as the M3 was to Tesla, and d) I'm confident that as inflation continues to abate and as the economy improves, there is is going to be a lot of room for Rivian and EVs to succeed. Hopefully in the long run I'm proven right and in the short run my conversations help people make a purchase decision!

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[Cycliste]

The auto market is undergoing a tremendous change to electrification. Tesla and BYD are clear leaders, and Rivian is also a significant player in this transition. Starting up an auto manufacturer is very capital intensive and Rivian won’t have a problem raising capital. The Fiskers-Nissan deal also suggests Rivian would have suitors if it ever decided to pursue a merger.

Rivian isn’t going away because the transition to EVs is inevitable. One way or another, the market won’t let Rivian go away with its proven manufacturing, proven products, and direct selling, because that is just too valuable to let fade away.

 

[usulio]

"They're going to make it on their own, or they'll get bought and make it that way." What I would say. Not very worried that support for current products will go away.

 

[R1TS]

I hope so.

The Model 3 came out at a time when there was very little competition at all. By the time that the R2 is produced in meaningful numbers, every car brand will have a similar small electric SUV/CUV in the same price point.

 

[240vPlug]

If you ask me we had a huge blowout of car sales in 2021 & 2022. Both new and used... Now with higher interest rates, higher expenses everywhere else, and economic uncertainty we are in a hangover period.

Never been a better time to buy an EV!!!

 

[WorldComposting]

As others have said I really feel even if Rivian as a stand alone company fails they will be bought out and I see many possible suiters depending on the price.

For Rivian to make it without someone picking them up they will probably need investment and I think a lot of this will hinge on what happens on 3/7 for an announcement and what happens with fuel prices. I say this because if fuel prices drop it makes the EV rational harder for some people. But if fuel prices go up EVs become a good value which can help drive more sales.

Also another wrench in this process is the factory shutdown this year and what cost savings that really gives them. I think the quad motor versions are very expensive to make because of the Bosch motors and as they transition to more dual motors that might help.

I guess there is a lot of juggling going on overall Rivian will be there just a question of what form they will be in.

 

[MGA]

EVs are one of the main tools (if not the main) to achieve a new world order, hence the fierce resistance against them.

 

[Zeusy Zeus]

The auto market is undergoing a tremendous change to electrification. Tesla and BYD are clear leaders, and Rivian is also a significant player in this transition. Starting up an auto manufacturer is very capital intensive and Rivian won’t have a problem raising capital. The Fiskers-Nissan deal also suggests Rivian would have suitors if it ever decided to pursue a merger.

Rivian isn’t going away because the transition to EVs is inevitable. One way or another, the market won’t let Rivian go away with its proven manufacturing, proven products, and direct selling, because that is just too valuable to let fade away.

Keep in mind if Trump gets elected which so far it looks very probable he will that will make electrification take a major step back. I don’t want anyone here to be surprised when all these incentives from the IRA go away and less people buy EV’s in the future if that were to happen.

 

[mkg3]

...But for the first time today, I had to answer to a "do you think they're going to make it?" question. Tough one, and I had a difficult time answering it....

Amazing...

Why would anyone who is not directly associated with Rivian, the company - not the vehicle - have any meaningful response to this question, let alone find it difficult to answer?

One has no control or impact on the outcome of the company survival or success other than buying their product (or not).

At best, "lets hope so", more accurately "the jury is still out on that..."

 

[defcon888]

I would answer positivly as possible. I would also bring up the fact that Rivian was started in 2009 during a recession and survived. They started building car during the beginning of the pandemic. Rivian will be fine...just some growing pains right now.

I would also tell them "Fisker is going to go bankrupt by year's end.....this is the 2nd time they have tried to make an EV"....Rivian is still here!

 

[R1TS]

I would answer positivly as possible. I would also bring up the fact that Rivian was started in 2009 during a recession and survived. They started building car during the beginning of the pandemic. Rivian will be fine...just some growing pains right now.

I would also tell them "Fisker is going to go bankrupt by year's end.....this is the 2nd time they have tried to make an EV"....Rivian is still here!

Did Rivian try to make a vehicle prior to the R1 like Fisker?

 

[Dark-Fx]

Well, if they're asking me about my Rivian, I could easily redirect them by telling them about my Fisker. (which is actually a pretty fun vehicle to drive in spite of the software issues currently being experienced)

 

[carsly]

I'd answer honestly, they have about four quarters of cash once you adjust for working capital needs.

I think they need a turnaround expert ASAP. Building the Georgia plant to hopefully build R2 in 2+ years is a fool's errand when you have 1 year's worth of cash on hand and are selling into a market with declining ASP's and reduced demand. Maybe less money on advertising agencies creating bizarrely themed videos for the R2 announcement in a few days. Cut, cut, and then cut some more. Invest back in R1 software, simplification, and building a R2 pilot line in Normal in 2025. Otherwise it's all academic and will be confined to history books.

I have held off on placing my R1 order until I feel comfortable with their financial condition and service footprint within 75 miles of me within central NJ - which is currently non-existent.

 

[TollKeeper]

"They're going to make it on their own, or they'll get bought and make it that way." What I would say. Not very worried that support for current products will go away.

Agreed.. And I fully anticipate them actually being bought up, if they dont make it.. by Apple. And that really hurts my soul to say that.

 

[defcon888]

Did Rivian try to make a vehicle prior to the R1 like Fisker?

No they did not, but you knew that. Until the Tesla Roadster, Tesla hadn't either. Don't get me wrong, I want Fisker, Lucid, BYTD, VinFast, Rivian, and all the other EVs to succeed, but people are running around like Chicken Little screaming "Rivian Stock is falling, Rivian stock is falling". I know it has dropped a lot since going public initially (I hadn't heard of them until my brother-in-law drove an R1T home 18 months ago).

I would hope that Fisker will learn from the past...maybe they should partner with one of the big 3. I don't think Rivian would have succeeded to this point without Amazon.

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