Rivian Pulling Demand Levers

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

I was there about 10 days ago and was a bit astounded by the volume of (acres upon acres) of Rivians in the lot. Further the volume of Amazon trucks was even larger...it felt like it went on as far as I could see. I should have sent up the drone.

Every Amazon van built is considered delivered. Supposedly Amazon’s responsibility to take them off of Rivian’s lot.

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[DuoRivian]

Every Amazon van built is considered delivered. Supposedly Amazon’s responsibility to take them off of Rivian’s lot.

That is true so the EDV stockpile is not a concern. The R1 stockpile is when they are only estimating 40k or so production for the whole of 2025.

 

[ThirteenElectrics]

I hear anecdotal about Tesla owners selling and buying Rivian’s but if that was really the case in any significant way then Rivian would have no sales issues since there are millions of Teslas on the road and Rivian is looking for 4000 R1 sales a month so would not need many Tesla owners to switch. Since Rivian seemingly now have demand issues it would seem the great mass of Tesla owners are not switching to Rivian.

Nobody wants to buy a new car in this economy. Maybe if interest rates drop and the economic outlook brightens more Tesla drivers will consider switching. Rivian only makes "want" cars. It does not make any "need" cars.

 

[DuoRivian]

Nobody wants to buy a new car in this economy. Maybe if interest rates drop and the economic outlook brightens more Tesla drivers will consider switching. Rivian only makes "want" cars. It does not make any "need" cars.

Bit of a stretch to say nobody when the sales rate is still 13-15 million a year. Some people won’t buy even at the height of the financial crisis the large majority of white collar workers (who typically buy new) still had their same jobs

 

[mkg3]

I agree, always have purchased my vehicles outright. However, I read somewhere that over 80 percent of vehicles at the R1 price point (6 figures or near) are leased...EV or ICE.

That's true.

Vast majority of people buying vehicles in 6 figures have multiple vehicles all at or around 6 figures. Most of those people want to finance to buy the vehicle because the current borrowing rate too high, even with FICO score over 800.

To pay cash for the vehicle requires most likely liquidating some form of investment since no one in right mind should keep their money in a bank account at the savings interest rate. So to buy something for $100K, one needs to liquidate at least $115K to pay for the federal capital gains tax (assuming long term, more if its short term), not to mention state income tax if you have one.

Most likely that if one is buying 6 figure vehicle and can pay outright, the MAGI is such that it will increase the tax liability much more than just capital gains tax rate. It will increase the marginal income tax bracket too.

To lease the vehicle one is only financing the depreciation so it's much less than $100K in my example. If one takes the average depreciation for 3~4 year lease, that's probably $50K for an EV. Now financing $50k is much less in terms of interest payments (money factor) and lower monthly outlay. While one doesn't have to liquidate larger investment amount and avoid larger tax bill.

The only reason to buy a vehicle in 6 figures is that you want to modify it, collect it or just don't care for some reason. As for equity in an owned vehicle, its an depreciating asset so the money is better placed elsewhere (unless its a limited and rare or hard to acquire vehicle - e.g., Ferrari)

 

[mkg3]

Nobody wants to buy a new car in this economy. Maybe if interest rates drop and the economic outlook brightens more Tesla drivers will consider switching. Rivian only makes "want" cars. It does not make any "need" cars.

I am trying to buy a new car in this economy right now. I've placed an order and a deposit in February and supposed to be built in June and delivered in August.

I just need the tariff negotiation to provide clarity so that I can decide to walk away or to go ahead with it. No, I am not paying additional 25% for an imported vehicle but probably will up to 10% at the most to get what I want. An alternative is to buy one off the lot without any Tariff.

 

[akc5247]

The problem right now is economic uncertainty exacerbated by the tariff situation & DOGE, higher interest rates, and yes higher costs for pretty much everything else.

banks have also been tightening their lending standards due to higher rates of default on auto loans.

Expensive luxury vehicles ….even ones that are as compelling as Rivian are slow to move right now.

One bright spot …at least for Rivian….is that many Tesla owners have been jumping over to Rivian because they dislike Elon and Rivian vehicles are the most similar to Tesla tech wise.

This is a strong incentive on dual max performance and we may just pull the trigger here soon.

Not sure about that.

Two of my neighbors were interested in Rivian, but they don't want a three row. One of them ended up getting a Model 3 today which was a great deal (0% APR for 60 months).

Rivian needs to work with Chase to offer such deals; otherwise the vehicles are not going to move off the lot.

As it stands, I lease a R1S and I have a R2 reservation as well. On my R1S I have already put 32000 miles in 15 months (out of 45 max on 3 year lease) but I still think i would trade it in since i wouldn't be happy about putting $65k at the end of lease to buy this one.

The deals, if they are really great, need to entice current buyers to flip to get the new model. The one offered, while it is good, is not good enough for current owners. If the expectation is to get new buyers, they are definitely not getting that with the current vehicle pricing.

[Plus, off topic, while this may be small, they really need to find a way to offer the model with captain's chairs. It would sell more, even if it is 10-15% more. Just going by threads around that in this forums, we can see how much of that was/is a missed opportunity.]

 

[Electrified Outdoors]

I hear anecdotal about Tesla owners selling and buying Rivian’s but if that was really the case in any significant way then Rivian would have no sales issues since there are millions of Teslas on the road and Rivian is looking for 4000 R1 sales a month so would not need many Tesla owners to switch. Since Rivian seemingly now have demand issues it would seem the great mass of Tesla owners are not switching to Rivian.

I’m sure at least some of those Tesla owners are “stuck” for a while. I have seen quite a few comments on the Facebook groups and I even referred a couple. Not in those numbers of course.

Put yourself in the mind of a Tesla owner. If you had to sell on principle, and could afford to do it financially, what vehicle would you choose?

We might see the flood gates open when R2 comes.

@akc5247 true I have no way to say with certainty. I’m going off what I see on social media, forums, and Reddit. I think Rivian is doing better than its EV competitors…except for maybe GM who has been on an EV tear lately. R2 will really change things. Many folks can’t or won’t allocate the funds required for an R1 and/or don’t need the space/size as you point out.

 

[darkrystalR2]

Price of an R2(so far) is a lot less than a new R1. They can target them all they want, different buyers.

was wondering that - I may need something soon, thinking getting a 3 year lease on an R1T, and then see about the R2 ?

 

[Joules Burn]

That was a very expensive subway location and not typical.

Perhaps the $20.76 an hour minimum wage had a factor?

 

[Who-Dat]

Not as good a deal as it looks. Max pack is $6000, Performance is $5000, so a total of $11,000. So in effect they are giving you a 60% discount...And id call the Perf package "not worth it" until it gets to $2000, which is what Tesla sells their MY perf upgrade for. I got the Max upgrade for $3000 (50% off) and $3500 off the lease (IIRC) for getting a trade quote for my Tesla - but not actually trading it in. So, i basically got the Max pack for free - tho its not worth anywhere close to $6000! The Max packs dont seem to be moving, which just says the market has spoken and they dont see them as worth $6000.

On the other side, i keep getting similar emails from tesla to buy a new MY. Not biting...

" I AGREE WITH YOU 1000%. - Just Wait until we get closer to Q1 of 2026 when the R2 goes into production you will see all kinds of offers on the R1T and R1S. The demand for the R2 will out sale the R1T or R1S".

 

[Who-Dat]

" I AGREE WITH YOU 1000%. - Just Wait until we get closer to Q1 of 2026 when the R2 goes into production you will see all kinds of offers on the R1T and R1S. The demand for the R2 will out sale the R1T or R1S".

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

" I AGREE WITH YOU 1000%. - Just Wait until we get closer to Q1 of 2026 when the R2 goes into production you will see all kinds of offers on the R1T and R1S. The demand for the R2 will out sale the R1T or R1S".

Official word has always been "first half of '26". Not "Q1".

 

[oskeei]

Took my S back to the Mothership to fix a CAN issue (my Rivian didn't like the Comma) and jaw dropped to see how many vehicles were in the lot.

The service advisor said most of the vehicles were awaiting delivery (not sure if that meant they had a buy or were waiting for a buyer before delivery). I'd say the delivery lots was basically full (1-2k vehicles?).

 

[voxel]

I seriously think Rivian exec sales folks are incompetent and don't understand the EV market.

I've seen 4 different demo R1Ses pop back up on the demo site. I have screenshots of 2 that actually increased in price over the year also (I posted in a different thread). These have been sitting for a least a year in FL.

https://demovehicles.rivian.com/products/2022-rivian-r1s-7-877-miles-75-464-7pdsgabl5nn003058

https://demovehicles.rivian.com/products/2022-rivian-r1s-7-803-miles-75-945

Tesla cuts prices until vehicles are sold. Rivian just sits on vehicles for 16+ months. The glut of Rivians doesn't surprise me one bit.

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