RIVN down 10%

[richguess]

I didn't see any negative news on Rivian this week, anyone know why the stock is down 10% today?

I think it was Yahoo Finance that said the usual: supply chain issues slowing production, slower sales, cash burn rate, etc. Nothing all that dramatic. I did see RJ’s sale on the Fast Edgar, appeared to be option related. As my father said, “ more people wanted to sell shares than buy them.”

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[mkg3]

BYD is not launching in the USA. Do a little research.

No they are not and I never said they are.

What BYD is most likely going to do is to mfg in Mexico and export to US and Canada. This is what I meant that people see the writing is on the wall.

Thanks for NAFTA2, unless we put some new provisions into the agreement that both Mexico and Canada have to agree to, there is nothing stopping the Chinese automakers to set up shop in Mexico and export into US and Canada.

Do some research??? Sure...

 

[waitingonanr1s]

Probably more to do with BYD launching their first pickup truck in Mexico and people see the handwriting on the wall...' Canda and US next.

https://www.byd.com/us/news-list/BYD-Launches-its-First-Pickup-Truck-BYD-SHARK-in-Mexico.html

Not happening in the US due to the Chinese tariff situation. I doubt either party would remove it at this point.

 

[mkg3]

That's a stretch. Canada followed US on tariffs against Chinese cars. Auto union jobs are just as important to Canada as it is for the US. Until those Chinese car companies build factories in NA, which takes a lot of capital and time (not to mention time needed from production trials to ramp), it's going to be more than several years for us to see Chinese cars in the NA market. Nowhere soon enough to excuse a one day dip in stocks.

Just another case of traders being lemmings. Both S&P500 and NASDAQ are down. Chalk this blip up to be just like any other, meaningless daily fluctuations.

Stockmarket these days that affect $RIVN and others alike are heavily invested by retail investors.

Knee-jerk reaction is very common. Also, if you only think of direct import from China, yes. There are many other ways to get around tariff.

 

[Jonger1150]

No they are not and I never said they are.

What BYD is most likely going to do is to mfg in Mexico and export to US and Canada. This is what I meant that people see the writing is on the wall.

Thanks for NAFTA2, unless we put some new provisions into the agreement that both Mexico and Canada have to agree to, there is nothing stopping the Chinese automakers to set up shop in Mexico and export into US and Canada.

Do some research??? Sure...

Will the Chinese government still subsidize Mexican build BYDs or will that gravy-train come to an end?

$25,000 300 mile EVs will take off, but the American public has been subjected to more FUD and politics than any other country on earth. Oil companies see this market as ground zero.

 

[mkg3]

Will the Chinese government still subsidize Mexican build BYDs or will that gravy-train come to an end?

$25,000 300 mile EVs will take off, but the American public has been subjected to more FUD and politics than any other country on earth. Oil companies see this market as ground zero.

Since direct subsidy to offset loss, when selling at much lower price than the market (dumping) is WTO violation, they will subsidize in an indirect way back home to offset any potential loss, I believe.

The thing is, one cannot just think about the complete vehicle as a whole. Potential Mexican made BYD will have low cost Chinese parts and those are imported into Mexico for final assembly. There's a game with exchange rate between the Yuan and Peso as well as labor rates. So when you consider the total make up of the cost difference, it will be noticeable as is.

Chinese EV makers are a real threat to not just US but all western automakers, as well as Japan. Ford is saying that Chines car companies are an existential threat, while Stallantis is saying that reaching parity between ICE and EV costs are needed to survive. Chines have already done that and has EV cost advantages.

 

[Golfer04]

Since direct subsidy to offset loss, when selling at much lower price than the market (dumping) is WTO violation, they will subsidize in an indirect way back home to offset any potential loss, I believe.

The thing is, one cannot just think about the complete vehicle as a whole. Potential Mexican made BYD will have low cost Chinese parts and those are imported into Mexico for final assembly. There's a game with exchange rate between the Yuan and Peso as well as labor rates. So when you consider the total make up of the cost difference, it will be noticeable as is.

Chinese EV makers are a real threat to not just US but all western automakers, as well as Japan. Ford is saying that Chines car companies are an existential threat, while Stallantis is saying that reaching parity between ICE and EV costs are needed to survive. Chines have already done that and has EV cost advantages.

CNBC did a nice 15 minute or so piece on this (it is on youtube). Another article came across my feed and was even more in depth (unfortunately I now can't find it). The situation is interesting and US/European auto companies are in trouble. China is by far the largest auto market and western companies were tone deaf 5 years ago when China announced they were going electric. Nobody made an affordable EV so Chinese companies did. 55 percent of August Chinese auto sales were EVs. Yes China subsidizes their domestic companies, but so does US/Europe via massive tax credits (that doesn't include buyer tax credits). South Korea does too. I'm old, but this reminds me of when Japan did this in the 1970s. US auto makers kept churning out V8 engines & junk vehicles as Honda & Toyota delivered small high quality cars. It took all kinds of government help to save the industry (import quotas, etc) then and likely will again. My father was an engineer for OMC (Johnson, Evinrude boat motors & Lawnboy mowers). They designed a new motor & Honda took the patent info, changed design to metric and had the motor in motorcycles before OMC could get the engine put in a boat motor. Dad said...."says as much about us as it does about them". Stuck with me.

 

[ev_d]

As Newtonrj mentioned, this move was most likely a result of options expiration which took place yesterday.

 

[Thedude]

Wait, what? I shouldn't ask because that his personal life and all, but it seemed like all was well since his family was in lots of social media posts.

He’s trimming the fat in order to keep his company afloat. He can focus more on the business as a bachelor eating ramen and drinking Busch lite.

 

[Florida Panhandler]

Will the Chinese government still subsidize Mexican build BYDs or will that gravy-train come to an end?

$25,000 300 mile EVs will take off, but the American public has been subjected to more FUD and politics than any other country on earth. Oil companies see this market as ground zero.

With these tariffs Americans are going to have to get used to the fact that they will be paying the most for cars of any country in the entire world. Already Americans are oblivious to how inexpensive a lot of stuff is around the world to purchase.If anyone thinks Ford and GM are going to lower prices with tariffs in place they have some Heisenberg-level crack coursing through their veins. They better just get used to $90k F150s lowest trim available.

Solar panels worldwide for instance are often 1/2 the price of anything available in the US due directly to protectionism. And these protectionist endeavors have done little to nothing to advance the domestic industries in question on the world stage, and more than often lead to American technology and engineering to fall even further behind world competition. But hey- current pandering lowest-common-denominator politics and short-term wealth-thinking rules the day here, so what the hell .

 

[mkg3]

As Newtonrj mentioned, this move was most likely a result of options expiration which took place yesterday.

It was quadruple witching day, and it affected the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures derivatives contracts.

Since Rivian stock is no longer a part of NASDQ 100, and is not part of any other indices, the thing that was affected was the single stock options and maybe derivative contracts.

Given that the volume was more than 3x the normal volume, its hard to believe that there are that many options out there for $RIVN, but may be there are....

 

[Freddie]

It was also flat bottom break that spooked the investors.

 

[Jonger1150]

With these tariffs Americans are going to have to get used to the fact that they will be paying the most for cars of any country in the entire world. Already Americans are oblivious to how inexpensive a lot of stuff is around the world to purchase.If anyone thinks Ford and GM are going to lower prices with tariffs in place they have some Heisenberg-level crack coursing through their veins. They better just get used to $90k F150s lowest trim available.

Solar panels worldwide for instance are often 1/2 the price of anything available in the US due directly to protectionism. And these protectionist endeavors have done little to nothing to advance the domestic industries in question on the world stage, and more than often lead to American technology and engineering to fall even further behind world competition. But hey- current pandering lowest-common-denominator politics and short-term wealth-thinking rules the day here, so what the hell .

Solar quotes for my home are like $40,000 with 13% interest rates. Needless to say, my 2 EV + heat pump home has no solar. I'm in Michigan where the payoff is way lower due to my latitude and worse yet, the clouds from the Great Lakes.

 

[Arvada Mike]

I didn't see any negative news on Rivian this week, anyone know why the stock is down 10% today?

The day trader rumor mills push stocks up and down without rational reasoning all the time. Most of the "investors" know nothing about EVs and are just hoping to grab a few percent increase each week. They will also grossly overreact, positively and negatively, to any news about the company.
If you have confidence in the stability of management and quality of the product then buy and sit on it. My 2 cents.

 

[WorldComposting]

CNBC did a nice 15 minute or so piece on this (it is on youtube). Another article came across my feed and was even more in depth (unfortunately I now can't find it). The situation is interesting and US/European auto companies are in trouble. China is by far the largest auto market and western companies were tone deaf 5 years ago when China announced they were going electric. Nobody made an affordable EV so Chinese companies did. 55 percent of August Chinese auto sales were EVs. Yes China subsidizes their domestic companies, but so does US/Europe via massive tax credits (that doesn't include buyer tax credits). South Korea does too. I'm old, but this reminds me of when Japan did this in the 1970s. US auto makers kept churning out V8 engines & junk vehicles as Honda & Toyota delivered small high quality cars. It took all kinds of government help to save the industry (import quotas, etc) then and likely will again. My father was an engineer for OMC (Johnson, Evinrude boat motors & Lawnboy mowers). They designed a new motor & Honda took the patent info, changed design to metric and had the motor in motorcycles before OMC could get the engine put in a boat motor. Dad said...."says as much about us as it does about them". Stuck with me.

Just wanted to say I growing up I had a boat with an OMC 5.0 engine and it was a beast!! But I think it was the last year for OMC so it was difficult to find people to work on it. My Dad sold it after 10+ years of owning it.

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