Has Rivian lost the battle AND the war?

[stumptown85]

All they need to do is focus obsessively on making the best possible products. Apple has been very successful at doing this while also being small volume wise. Winning isn’t always about making the most, although as a shareholder I would like that as well.

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[yizzung]

I’ve owned three Audis and two BMWs and (in spite of many, many test drives) have never owned a Mercedes because I can’t stand the way that they drive. And their SUVs drive way worse than their sedans. No, Mercedes has not locked up the luxury electric SUV market with one vehicle that will 100% cost well over $100K out the door.

R1S is the electric Land Rover that Land Rover never bothered to build. And it drives a hell of a lot better than any Land Rover. When they roll out the lower end Rivians, they’ll probably compete more directly with Subaru and Jeep but we’ll see.

 

[SoCal Rob]

No but I never said that. Referring to the R1T. The Ioniq 5 is definitely NOT a competitor to the R1S...but that's not the point. The R1S is floating in the Netherland of the car market. It fits nowhere. It's outclassed in luxury IMO and the middle market can't afford it. Again, TODAY, who choses to the R1S as their SUV EV of choice. A niche few imo.

I don't think it's a stretch to say that a GMC Yukon, while not an EV, is a middle market product. In terms of size and passenger/cargo capacity it is a pretty close match to an R1S.

If you spec one in Denali trim to get four wheel drive, an air suspension, and adaptive cruise control (but without front and rear parking sensors) you're looking at an MSRP of $81,270. Now, this does include a HUD, SiriusXM, and AA/CarPlay but it doesn't include SuperCruise, similar to Driver+. Also, the off-road capability is questionable because the air suspension requires 22" wheels and only offers 10" of clearance at max height. The Yukon towing maxes out at 8,000 pounds, down from the Rivian by a significant amount but admittedly it can tow for longer distances and with shorter refueling stops. Of course some people may find that being able to tow inconveniently with a Rivian is preferable to not being able to tow the same load with a Yukon at all.

The Yukon gives you mileage ratings of 14 city/19 highway and a 0-60 time of 6.8 seconds.

What are you comparing a Rivian to (similar size, capacity, tech features, off-road capability, and performance) which is a considerable improvement over the Rivian? Also, to be fair, I think that EVs tend to cost more than ICE equivalents so if a comparable EV comes close in price to the ICE equivalent the EV is perceived to be a better value by those who want an EV.

 

[Max]

OP has some interesting arguments. Frankly if my wait puts me in Silverado EV times zone, it would be a tough call for me too (if feature/price for a mid grade Silverado is right). Rivian has a Rebate and if they hold the price guarantee , Chevy may not be able to beat the value proposition for original reservation holders.

As far as state of the battle and the war, I don’t think it has much to do with the competition. It will be mainly result of how Rivian executes. They have a nice customer service but they don’t know anything. They have a nice design for their product that puts a grin on everyone’s face but we are seeing a lot of quality issues coming off the line. How they play the balancing act between keeping the balance sheet in check and keeping the customer happy has a lot more to do with them winning the war than what Kia or GM does. Demand for EVs are going to be lot more than supply for a while. They don’t even have to produce a low priced one yet to sell them. If there will be a war down the line, it will be for lower priced EVs against Chinese. Once that war start, the only American company that could win it, may be Tesla and unless they run out of demand for their high priced cars, they won’t get into that war. Optimus will be giving piggyback rides as a robotaxi before that happens.

I think the Ioniq 5 is fine, but it isn't really a competitor for a R1S. They are completely different sizes, different abilities, different price points. Both electric, sure.

Here are some disjointed thoughts on that topic; I am even considering Bolt as an alternative to R1. People like me who already have three vehicles in the driveway they barely use, look at the best combination of the vehicles that take care of their needs. For me there is a main requirement and the rest are all optional with different degrees of importance. Main requirement is getting from A to B. Using electricity, reasonable price, towing capability…….. are all things I can compromise on and the best combination makes the best choice for me. Frankly having a Bolt as a daily driver and an ICE for towing and travel makes more sense. The trouble is when you are getting ready to kick the bucket after a lifetime of making sensible choices, it is not about vehicle cathegory or class anymore. You just want the last grin before you go

However, they hate the number of times that the Range Rover is in the shop and what it costs them to get it out. They would drop their Range Rover like a bad habit if the reliability of the R1S proves itself.

That is a big if early adopters are gambling on. Although number of early QC issues seem to be fairly high, they are covered. As someone who keep my cars for a very long time, post warranty ownership cost is my main concern which at this point is a crap shoot. I think the cost of a visit for Rivian repair will not be less than Range Rover. I am hoping the frequency of the visits to be lower. Then again the warning messages written in the code may already be on a timer to go off the day after warranty is over;

“The world is going to end. Contact a Rivian service specialist immediately. Remember the price guarantee you got a few years ago? Pay back is a b.“

 

[22RivianCDH]

No but I never said that. Referring to the R1T. The Ioniq 5 is definitely NOT a competitor to the R1S...but that's not the point. The R1S is floating in the Netherland of the car market. It fits nowhere. It's outclassed in luxury IMO and the middle market can't afford it. Again, TODAY, who choses to the R1S as their SUV EV of choice. A niche few imo.

It is niche player in regards to numbers sold …but so are vehicles like the Range Rover (full size and Sport). I’ve owned both and I recently went to possibly purchase a 2023 Range Rover with a msrp of 122k…that was before the adm of between 25-50k…I was offered only 10k over as a good customer gesture…
The sales people and GM were very interested in my R1T…they took a ride and came away impressed and surprised —my vehicle was $79k—-yes that price is no longer offered —-it would be closer $95k if I ordered today ….Does R1S and T hold up against the Range Rover Competition? At $95k vs $125k —-I think it does. The minor issues I have experienced (software) has been resolved with OTA within 2 weeks of ownership …my 2018 Range Rovers infotainment system never worked properly in 3 yrs…I have let a number of people drive my Rivian - Family , friends , and even a Lucid owner …they were very enthusiastic and most asked where can I buy one ? A good indicator of building a vehicle people want. The suspension is world class and I imagine in the R1S may get even better as the suspension tuning may be altered due to its primary purpose being people transport vs truck use in the R1T…
Is there some risk in buying a start
Up ? Yes …But this isn’t a Fisker —this vehicle is better in all measurable ways…. I am not sure one needs the quad motor option — I have been driving in conserve mode (front wheel drive ) and the performance is still amazing. I am not sure how the driving experience is altered due to the loss of torque vectoring with quad motor …but on a fairly spirited drive on canyon roads I didn’t notice much difference. So a budget friendly Rivian does exist to order today. At $70k…I don’t think it has a problem finding a loyal customer base. My .02 cents

cheers

 

[junkanoo]

I’ve owned three Audis and two BMWs and (in spite of many, many test drives) have never owned a Mercedes because I can’t stand the way that they drive. And their SUVs drive way worse than their sedans. No, Mercedes has not locked up the luxury electric SUV market with one vehicle that will 100% cost well over $100K out the door.

R1S is the electric Land Rover that Land Rover never bothered to build. And it drives a hell of a lot better than any Land Rover. When they roll out the lower end Rivians, they’ll probably compete more directly with Subaru and Jeep but we’ll see.

Naturally, time will tell, but it is interesting to speculate.

With constraints on supply of parts plus the longer-term outlook for batteries, I'm not sure a "lower end" Rivian is in the cards. Doing a sedan and going up against Tesla would be suicide ... so, while a smaller SUV might compete against a Jeep EV entrant, I'm not sure that's a winning play either. Jeep owners seem pretty loyal. I think an EV van that could compete against Ford and Mercedes might be a better way to go, leveraging their learnings on producing the Amazon delivery van.

 

[WantARivian]

The OP has some valid points. Everything said, Rivian’s ramp up has been slow and they have had a decade to get to where they are now. Yes, they did some course corrections.
I love what the R1S promises to deliver. And I will get it if it were available today. But, a 2 year wait is too much to ask from someone like me, for whom, this would be the first luxury/EV vehicle. So, I’m also actively considering Polestar 3, Porsche Macan EV etc. as and when they show up.
All I’m saying is, and I guess the crux of the OPs post is that, yes, Rivian finally has a winning recipe, BUT, are they going to efficiently deliver?

 

[SeaGeo]

I don't know what this comment means. What am I missing?

I'm picking on you a little bit for fun. @Speedrye noted the forum is usually reasonably split, I was really just pointing out that even as a Rivian forum I wouldn't have expected 95% of us to say "No, Rivian great." Especially since it seems like half the forum is predicting Rivian's downfall at any given point. lol.

Basically you did a remarkably good job finding a topic that everyone agrees on.

 

[zipzag]

Naturally, time will tell, but it is interesting to speculate.

With constraints on supply of parts plus the longer-term outlook for batteries, I'm not sure a "lower end" Rivian is in the cards. Doing a sedan and going up against Tesla would be suicide ... so, while a smaller SUV might compete against a Jeep EV entrant, I'm not sure that's a winning play either. Jeep owners seem pretty loyal. I think an EV van that could compete against Ford and Mercedes might be a better way to go, leveraging their learnings on producing the Amazon delivery van.

I don't get why a work van would be a long term winner for Rivian. Making money on this product would seem to favor the low cost producer. EV propulsion will likely become commoditized much faster than combustion engines and transmissions.

I assume Tesla's strategic avoidance of vans is due to so many players entering that area.

 

[SeaGeo]

Naturally, time will tell, but it is interesting to speculate.

With constraints on supply of parts plus the longer-term outlook for batteries, I'm not sure a "lower end" Rivian is in the cards. Doing a sedan and going up against Tesla would be suicide ... so, while a smaller SUV might compete against a Jeep EV entrant, I'm not sure that's a winning play either. Jeep owners seem pretty loyal. I think an EV van that could compete against Ford and Mercedes might be a better way to go, leveraging their learnings on producing the Amazon delivery van.

They need to find something to fill up the Georgia plant. Unless they plan on abandoning the idea. I can't really see vans being high enough volume to do that. They've sort of backed themselves into some higher volume variant(s) with it.

 

[junkanoo]

I don't get why a work van would be a long term winner for Rivian. Making money on this product would seem to favor the low cost producer. EV propulsion will likely become commoditized much faster than combustion engines and transmissions.

I assume Tesla's strategic avoidance of vans is due to so many players entering that area.

Why? Who of note is entering the van business other than VW? If Tesla is avoiding producing vans due to competition ... by your logic ... then they sure as heck should be avoiding the truck space.

Additionally, vans are not just for work. Tons are being converted into personal campers, the so-called "adventure" market that Rivian has targeted. Seems like they should be able to leverage that market over any other than I can think of.

If you have a better idea, please serve it up.

 

[junkanoo]

They need to find something to fill up the Georgia plant. Unless they plan on abandoning the idea. I can't really see vans being high enough volume to do that. They've sort of backed themselves into some higher volume variant(s) with it.

Well, the Local site can't support current sales of vehicles if run at full capacity, so they had to do something anyway. Ford and Mercedes sell a ton of vans.

 

[SANZC02]

I don't get why a work van would be a long term winner for Rivian. Making money on this product would seem to favor the low cost producer. EV propulsion will likely become commoditized much faster than combustion engines and transmissions.

I assume Tesla's strategic avoidance of vans is due to so many players entering that area.

It is about repetitive revenue streams.

Getting the commercial vans going will help them get people into the Fleet system they are developing where the margins are higher and it is a consistent revenue.

They have also designed this to handle entire fleets and not just Rivian vans so the more people they can get in this system the bigger the possibility for growth in the market.

 

[997.2]

All really good things to think about. My initial post was more a gut off-the-cuff thought with the Mercedes news of the EQS than a thought-out premediated idea. But as I have had a day to think about it....my main point is probably that the EV SUV & Truck competition is coming fast and furious. Rivian better get their S@&t together and start getting cars in people hands. What makes them unique and valuable now could quickly disappear. Things are moving fast. That can be too their advantage or be a real killer. It seems to me they have been on the losing end of this battle and if more and more alternatives start to appear to the R1S and R1T...suddenly Rivian is kinda of a "meh" product. I'm not decided either way but it doesn't take a whole lot of dreaming and creative scenario building to see a bad outcome. Time will tell. Will be fun to watch. I hope they succeed. I want one and more competition will only help EV adoption and innovation.

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