The Max Pack Will Most Likely Be Canceled - IMO

[JustBarely]

We need that Max pack to give buyers a headstart on that Phantom battery drain some of us are still working through. You'll become an expert on turning off things that require energy if you leave it parked somewhere while on vacation!

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[AxelR]

I've got a 4/19 Max reservation (with Camp Kitchen) and admit to wondering whether I should reconfigure to a Large (without CK). But I don't think Rivian will cancel the Max because if they do, depending on what a comparable Silverado prices at, I think a lot of preorder holders will just cancel and buy the Silverado instead, especially with the longer bed.

While I don't need a Max for towing -- I'm buying a very lightweight Camp365 unit -- my ultimate bucket list drive is a trip to Alaska. And for that I do have range anxiety, even if for everything else I don't.

I’m totally with you on this.

I really like the looks of the Silverado and it will be a much more practical vehicle. I actually preordered the S, then switched to the T and realized that the bed size is a joke and switched back to the S.

I shouldn’t say this here, but at the end of the day, I’m more excited at what the Silverado or Cybertruck promise than what Rivian is offering in terms of truck. But at least the R1T exists.

 

[Rivian_Hugh_III]

All of that, 800 volt, V2H is in the new hardware that will come with the new Rivian motor design. Anything with the dual motors should be capable. Not sure when the plan to convert the quad motors to that hardware stack will be.

The new motors could be set on each wheel for an “ultimate” edition (Plaid) with 1200hp and all the advantages of the new motors (800v, V2x etc).

 

[Yossarian]

Facts are also not universal. I'm max pack with a guide and PBA (not the tax agreement thing they just did), got my guide in June. Related to R1shop access but point remains they didn't reward me for switching. Given recent explore cancellation I'm nervous but also hope they would have axed it at the same time. Now whether 2023 happens is a different question...

It is interesting that several of us on this thread originally ordered Maxpack but switched to Large and have heard nothing in terms of an updated schedule. I wonder if that is a bug in the delivery system or a sign that there is an update coming about Maxpack availability and don’t want to deliver a large pack truck to those that really want/need Maxpack and then have regrets. Probably just wishful thinking.

This is interesting as I also have an R1T Max configured with a delivery window of 1H2023 per the Dec '21 email, was assigned a guide and have a PBA in place. I was very excited when I learned that I was assigned a guide, but that waned quickly. While my guide was personable and our conversation pleasant, it was devoid of any new information. My guess is that the reason for the guide at this juncture was to encourage me to take advantage of the R1T Shop.

 

[Dark-Fx]

The new motors could be set on each wheel for an “ultimate” edition (Plaid) with 1200hp and all the advantages of the new motors (800v, V2x etc).

I'd definitely consider cancelling my pre-3/1 R1T Max pack for an R1X max pack with Quad Enduro motors.

 

[AxelR]

I'd definitely consider cancelling my pre-3/1 R1T Max pack for an R1X max pack with Quad Enduro motors.

You’d have to forgo your pre-March pricing most likely.
I don’t know if I believe that a Rivian is truly worth post March pricing money (but I don’t live with one).

 

[Dark-Fx]

You’d have to forgo your pre-March pricing most likely.
I don’t know if I believe that a Rivian is truly worth post March pricing money (but I don’t live with one).

That's what I'm saying. I never cancelled my R1T when they raised the price. It's absolutely still worth the higher price to me, but I could still afford to pay it.

 

[NC-Rivian]

Current EV battery capacity reminds me of a maxed out 286 computer. Soon, technology will produce a denser energy, less expensive, faster charging battery and then we'll look back at 2022 technology like a 386 computer looked back at the Intel 286 technology.

 

[Oldsmobile_Mike]

Not reading through nine pages of comments but I really hope this is not the case. I'm not rich, and I maintain all my own vehicles and keep them running for a very long time. I've been saving for three years for a Rivian. My current truck is 15 years old, heavily customized, has 238,000 miles and still runs great. The Rivian will most likely be the last truck I buy in my life so I ordered it fully loaded - with all the options. I don't mind waiting a little longer, this just gives me more time to save to pay for it. Not going halfway on a thing I plan on spending so much money on and keeping for so long.

That said, I'm also on the waiting list for Cybertruck, Silverado EV, and F-150 Lightning. I need an EV truck for my job and will take whichever one I can get first - assuming I can spec it out the way I want it.

 

[intimidator]

The Rivian Lottery ended when they received numerous complaints from early preorder holders when they found out that people like me that just placed their reservation were jumping the line. There are threads in this forum with many others that are experiencing the same things I have.

Towing is a good consumer reason for the keeping the Max Pack but securing profits for the shareholders is a better reason to cancel it. After all, they are in the business to make money if they want to survive as a company.

Rivian is charging an extra $10,000 for the Max Pack, so there is potentially some profit margin in there....

 

[intimidator]

Current EV battery capacity reminds me of a maxed out 286 computer. Soon, technology will produce a denser energy, less expensive, faster charging battery and then we'll look back at 2022 technology like a 386 computer looked back at the Intel 286 technology.

Yes, but EV technology seems to be evolving at a slower pace.
Range for one hasn't improved much in the last 3-4 years.
The 4680 batteries were "announced" a couple of years ago, but Tesla is still trying to scale them.
Ford wants to build more Lightnings, but they admit it will take a while to ramp up production.
Chevy and Dodge have "announced" their EV pickups are coming out SooN, but is that 2024?

I assume EV battery management will improve. I assume battery chemistry will improve. Software in the vehicles will improve. But it will evolve over time, and I don't expect a huge leap 2 years from now, as an example.

 

[intimidator]

I really hope you are wrong. I am coming from 5 prior teslas since 2014, and that mid 300's range is at least to me the sweet spot when traveling cross country. I hope they keep the Max Pack on the back burner and sell the large pack to those ready to go or willing to switch.

There are a couple of reasons I still hope for it. I had my first Tesla pre-supercharger network and charging on long-distance trips without DC charging is the pits. I used to stop at RV parks and charge for 6 to 8 hours on a 50 amp plug just to get to the coast here in Texas in my P85D. The P85D would only get mid 200's not that far off of the R1Ts highway range. It is still an issue even with DC fast charging being so much more common, being that the R1T is so much heavier, less efficient, and can't charge at the 250 kWh that the Tesla can. I was hoping to have the Max Pack to be able to charge up that sweet spot 80% of charge to make long-distance travel that much easier, as well as have the ability to go further off the grid without thinking about it, as well as towing.

Sorry for the rant. I hope your conjecture is just conjecture, and they aren't listening cause there are those of us who really want our cake and eat it too, and are willing to wait for the Max Pack. Most days I don't need that much range, but when you are taking a long distant trip a big battery rocks.

I acknowledge some people will be fine with "just" 270-280 miles of range, but not everyone.

Including me. I really want to be at a theoretical 400 miles of range. Considering the 80-20 rule of charging for most of the time, plus towing once in a while, and maybe 2 roadtrips a year, that extra bit of range will make everything that much better.

 

[donaldus]

The Max Pack will most likely be canceled for the following reasons:

1. Cost: It will be too expensive to produce
2. Most consumers will not need 400 miles of range.
3. A 180 to 200 KWH battery is not environmentally friendly (Hummer EV)
4. Rivian will lose money for their shareholders for every MAX Pack produced.
5. Manufacturing the Max Pack will limit the production of the Large Pack and Standard Pack (i.e., for every 10 Max Packs, 15 Large Packs can be produced which will be even more with the Standard Pack.
6. Production will begin to focus on the smaller Standard Pack for faster production and greater economies of scale.

Reasoning:

Max Pack preorder holders that switched to the Large Pack received a Rivian Guide and a PBA. I ordered my Rivian 28 February 2022, and I was assigned a Rivian Guide within a week of switching. This strategy allows Rivian to lock your preorder in, and any changes must be made through your guide. In addition, any changes can delay your delivery in accordance with the PBA.

I was assigned a guide 16 May 2022, and I was told my R1T would be delivered two months ago. Now I am being told I will get an updated delivery date by the end of summer because they are now prioritizing early preorder holders (which they should have from the beginning). There are many others in this same position. However, I don’t expect to get my Rivian until sometime next year.

I knew when I got the unexpected Guide assignment that there was a strategy at play. They called it the "Rivian lottery." I believe the goal is to lower demand for the Max Pack by seemingly rewarding a few customers that switched with an early delivery. This will motivate more customers to switch if they believe this will speed up delivery. Once they get demand for the Max Pack is at a sufficiently low level, they will cancel it due to "lack of demand."

If demand is not at a sufficiently low level, they will announce a long delay and offer Max Pack preorder holders an opportunity to switch to the Large Pack for earlier delivery (prioritizing the earliest preorder holders). I suspect the only reason Rivian has not canceled the Max Pack already is that they have not reached a low enough level of demand that will minimize consumer fallout. Expect an announcement over the next three months.


Furthermore, with production being the main priority there is no way Rivian will divert limited battery supplies to produce a 180 - 200 KWH Max Pack. In other words, for every 10 Max Packs they can produce >15 Large Packs, and even more Standard Packs. For this reason alone, the Max Pack will be canceled.


Finally, what are you going to do when they cancel the Max Pack? Will you cancel your order? If so, Rivian wins because now they well sell your cancelled vehicle to a new customer at a much higher price. In other words, the pre-price increase customers have zero leverage in this situation because the demand is high, and they are already losing money on these vehicles. Unfortunately, switching at this point may not result in a faster delivery window because it is likely Rivian decided not to produce the Max Pack before the first delivery rolled off the production line.

I saw a R1T in Waco…couldn’t make Austin to Dallas without a stop. The standard R1T doesn’t have enough range for those of us that travel 200 + miles or tow. Max pack is a necessity for me. Texas/Arkansas/Oklahoma still don’t have adequate EVSE availability.

 

[intimidator]

I can see them pushing it back to 2024 but it seems risky to cancel it outright. If they do cancel it, I hope they make the decision s00n. Even though I don't necessarily agree with your reasoning, I'm still concerned Rivian will delay or cancel the Max Pack and I think your concerns are totally plausible. I hope you're wrong but I wouldn't bet against you.

As a Max Pack reservation holder since March 2019, they @#**^%@ better not wait until spring of 2023 to announce "sorry we are not going to make the Max Pack version, here is a Rivian coffee mug for your troubles."

I have passed on getting the long range version a couple of times in the last month because I assume I will be getting a Max Pack in the spring. BUT, if they are going to cancel it, tell me now. I can buy R1T in the Rivian ShOP and get it in the next couple of months. Or, move forward with my Lightning reservation, etc.

So RJ, if you are reading this, DO NOT wait one more week if you are planning to cancel the Max Pack version. Do it now. The longer you wait, the more negative customer sentiment you could create.

 

[zipzag]

Yes, but EV technology seems to be evolving at a slower pace.
Range for one hasn't improved much in the last 3-4 years.
The 4680 batteries were "announced" a couple of years ago, but Tesla is still trying to scale them.
Ford wants to build more Lightnings, but they admit it will take a while to ramp up production.
Chevy and Dodge have "announced" their EV pickups are coming out SooN, but is that 2024?

I assume EV battery management will improve. I assume battery chemistry will improve. Software in the vehicles will improve. But it will evolve over time, and I don't expect a huge leap 2 years from now, as an example.

Many forecasts have cell prices rising a bit, perhaps falling after 2026. Microprocessors are really terrible analog for todays batteries. Batteries prices are obviously heavy dependent at this point on some mineral prices. This wasn't the case earlier in the cell price curve.

No new tech is likely take the battery market by storm. The world doesn't work that way on high volume items where a substantial part of the price is the mass of the item.

I saw a R1T in Waco…couldn’t make Austin to Dallas without a stop. The standard R1T doesn’t have enough range for those of us that travel 200 + miles or tow. Max pack is a necessity for me. Texas/Arkansas/Oklahoma still don’t have adequate EVSE availability.

Especially in winter. Main routes will likely be filled in quickly with DCFS. But rural areas off the interstate don't need fast charger for local residents with EV. Rural people live in housing that can have a home charger. These people drive to the interstate when traveling away from home.

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