Only 25000 Rivians to be built this year.

[jmoore227]

50k in 2022 was never the guidance. The 50k was referenced on the call today as the rate at which they could produce in 2022 if they weren't supply constrained. The guidance from the last earning's call was that the target was to get through all of the pre-orders (55k) by the end of 2023. After being prompted, RJ confirmed again today that they expect to get through all 55k by the end of 2023. I tend to be a pessimist so don't believe him, but that's what they're saying. If they do manage to hit 25k (R1 + RCV) by end of 2022, it wouldn't be unreasonable to reach 55k by the end of 2023.

We have to assume there will not be 100% conversion of pre-orders to orders. I wonder what attrition rate they are assuming and if that was factored into our delivery windows? Maybe any shortfall in the production rate might be offset with pre-orders not converting to orders when thinking about when I might get a vehicle...

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[Autolycus]

I found the comments about the chip vendors particularly the direct comments I.e. “if any of our chip providers are on this call….” to be very interesting, not that he has much leverage to threaten them, but it was interesting to see him all but flog them on an earnings call.

Makes you wonder how bad things have to get, before auto manufacturers say enough is enough, form some sort of co-opt and build a domestic foundry to supply themselves.

If it’s locking up 25,000 units @$90,000 that’s about $2.2 billion in product. I know it’s immensely hard to build a chip foundry and not their area of expertise, but crazier things have happened.

There is some movement finally in both the US House and Senate to invest a pretty decent amount in US chip manufacturing capacity. They still need to work out a compromise between their two similar bills, but I expect it will happen this year, as soon as they work through the backlog of immediate priorities -- omnibus budget has now gone through to Biden to sign today, so that's one checked off the to-do list at least.

https://gizmodo.com/house-passes-bill-that-would-invest-billions-to-bolster-1848489656

 

[Dark-Fx]

So what youre saying is their previous guidance of 50,000 vehicles for 2022, was based on the lines running at their observed capacity, and based on the assumption they would not be impacted by supply interruptions at all.

That’s seems reeeeeally naive on Rivian’s part…..

Supply interruptions can happen unexpectedly all the time. Even in good times legacy auto occasionally has to stop production because of supply issues. They could have had no supply issues, but suddenly discovered that something wasn't being made correctly, so now they have no good parts and have to start over.

 

[AdamsFan1983]

I thought the same thing, I mean whatever leverage they have or don't have, RJ, multiple times, addressed any suppliers that "might be on the call" basically saying "you're fucking us, and we're not going to let up on you" - things like that lead me to believe they're probably not stretching the truth very much that just a handful of suppliers are holding them back from moving much more quickly.

It's easy to armchair QB all of this and think about how "obvious" it is and how "easy" it is to fix - it's not. We have no clue what it's like and manufacturing is VERY hard, harder than anyone expects. This isn't to give them a pass, yeah, you'd hope they would have seen some of this coming, and the lower than expected numbers suck, but RJ didn't sound like a guy making excuses, he sounded like someone VERY frustrated that he has people and processes that COULD be moving forward, but aren't due to just a few key components. His tone was not "kind" toward the suppliers. I don't think that was show, it sounded pretty genuine.

Actually the chip trade with China has already been materially affecting from the tariff and trade disputes during the Trump presidency Re: adding Huawei and others to the "entity list." Don't get me wrong, the Biden admin enough on this either, but its one of those things where they can rightly blame the people that came before, for the negative effects, while tacitly acknowledging that screwing the chinese tech sector is a win for our country in the long term.

 

[Autolycus]

Does anyone know how much of R1 is Chinese? If U.S. pull the trigger with sanctions on China for not joining the anti Russia club, stuff are going to hit the fan with a lot of companies some of which may be in Rivian‘s supply chain. Then even 25K May be optimistic.

Not saying that something else couldn't happen with US-China relations at just about any point, but we aren't going to sanction them for remaining neutral. The only way we sanction them for their relationship with Russia is if they start actively supporting the war in Ukraine with significant material. I would be shocked if they do that. It would be incredibly foolish of them and they know it would undermine their stance on maintaining the integrity of all sovereign borders (i.e. they don't want to be proven hypocritical on Taiwan).

 

[Fred6v]

There is some movement finally in both the US House and Senate to invest a pretty decent amount in US chip manufacturing capacity. They still need to work out a compromise between their two similar bills, but I expect it will happen this year, as soon as they work through the backlog of immediate priorities -- omnibus budget has now gone through to Biden to sign today, so that's one checked off the to-do list at least.

https://gizmodo.com/house-passes-bill-that-would-invest-billions-to-bolster-1848489656

I had GlobalFoundries as a customer, it took nearly 4 years to build and get their factory in NY to production and that was before supply chain drama. This bill will mean squat for enhancing chip production for at least 3 years.

 

[Davethadog]

I work in Logistics and Supply Chain, the delay is inevitable given the supply chain issues around the world, I understand what Rivian is facing. I am late reservation, not expecting to get my R1S until early/mid 24'. I made a reservation for a Model Y and a Mustang Mach e GT, gonna pull the trigger on which ever comes early. Think MY in August, trade it in when my R1S comes in. How do you like the Polestar 2? did not think of this, am not a big Sedan guy.

Honestly I don’t love it. I think the Mach E GT is a better car but at this point I’m doing it for the business expense/depreciation. I drive a ram 1500 that gets 13mpg 40-50 miles a day right now and it’s just stupid and untenable. I’ll keep the truck for truck things until the rivian comes along and then trade in the truck and sell the polestar or vice versa.

 

[Autolycus]

I had GlobalFoundries as a customer, it took nearly 4 years to build and get their factory in NY to production and that was before supply chain drama. This bill will mean squat for enhancing chip production for at least 3 years.

Yes, of course, but that's true of any effort to significantly expand foundry capacity anywhere in the world. What's the old proverb though? The best day to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The next best day is today.

 

[hilld]

I hedged my bets when they announced the pricing increase and placed an order for a BMW iX. My dealer called me and found me a summer build slot (yes this year), so I should have it in the fall. As my R1T was a late 2021 order, it might indeed be 2024 or later before I see it.

 

[Redline]

Whelp, I guess my first half 23 R1S ”delivery” has turned into sometime in 24. Maybe I’ll be keeping my Model S an Lyriq for longer.

Did you listen to the call? RJ said they'll fill that promise of the 55k vehicles by end of '23.

 

[raj]

Honestly I don’t love it. I think the Mach E GT is a better car but at this point I’m doing it for the business expense/depreciation. I drive a ram 1500 that gets 13mpg 40-50 miles a day right now and it’s just stupid and untenable. I’ll keep the truck for truck things until the rivian comes along and then trade in the truck and sell the polestar or vice versa.

Ok, thanks. Why did you not look at the Tesla? Just curious. I have driven the Model Y and the Mach e GT. Like the GT, but going to be end of the yr before I get it. Not sure the tax credit will still hold for Ford until I get my GT.

 

[Davethadog]

Ok, thanks. Why did you not look at the Tesla? Just curious. I have driven the Model Y and the Mach e GT. Like the GT, but going to be end of the yr before I get it. Not sure the tax credit will still hold for Ford until I get my GT.

I know the Y is a good car in a lot of ways but I hate the way they look and I can’t stand Elon musk. I have died too many times on that hill and my pride couldn’t be recovered.

 

[moosetags]

How did you come up with your reservation number?

I got my reservation number from the CS rep when he called to see if I wanted to move to the Adventure Package in order to get an earlier delivery window which I declined.

My order date is November 28, 2018, and my Reservation number 2266. I understand that the order numbers started at 1001.

My delivery window is first half of 2023. My early order was pushed way back because I want the Explore Package. I felt that the motorized tonneau cover would be a maintenance problem. I felt that the wooden dash trim looked a little cheesy. I also like the black outside rearview mirrors. I think that they stand out nicely against the Rivian Blue body color.

I am hoping that when they do start producing some of the Explore models, I will be near the top of the list.

Brian

 

[Guy]

Ok, thanks. Why did you not look at the Tesla? Just curious. I have driven the Model Y and the Mach e GT. Like the GT, but going to be end of the yr before I get it. Not sure the tax credit will still hold for Ford until I get my GT.

You will likely get the credit because Lightening has started and there is a slow phase out so the full credit is available within that quarter when they meet 200000 units so that can add a couple of months on. Then it halves for six months.

 

[Taycanfrank]

Did you listen to the call? RJ said they'll fill that promise of the 55k vehicles by end of '23.

They consistently miss their projections. Also, that projection was based on supply chain issues & shortages magically disappearing by Q4 2022, when they're only getting worse.

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