Rivian IPO roadshow video(s) & presentation

[Bumble1978]

I share others’ sentiments that watching this roadshow video made me feel more solid about the company in general, my pre-order, and purchasing stock (IPO and on open market). I do have concerns around overall range. My Model Y with stated range of 326 has significantly diminished range driving to Mt. Hood from PDX in winter. There is a supercharger in Sandy, but losing 30-40% estimated range in the R1S would make the drive a nailbiter without the max pack.

Is your Octo-valve not functioning properly?!? So you're saying if you were to make the same trip in Spring/Fall when temps are more ideal you would have 30-40% more range taking the elevation gain out of the equation.

My friend has a 2021 Model 3 SR+ with an Octo-valve and doesn't seem to have as drastic of loss in Winter in general. Granted she doesn't head out on many road trips, let alone up into the Cascades often but still you'd think it would be comparable on the usual routes she takes. I know the 3 is more efficient than the Y because of size and weight but I didn't think it was THAT drastic. ?

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[Pixelshot]

You could definitely be right. Castle Rock makes sense as a mid-point between the Springs and Douglas Co peeps.

Looks to me like it would be Colorado Springs. The RAN map has two dots for the Denver area, with a bit of separation for the next dot. If you look at previous RAN map (below), the charging station is clearly in Springs.

The service station map has that same separation.

BUT, it's all speculation because the map is warped funny so I can't do a reliable overlay on the RAN graphic I've been working with.

Case in point: the service center in southern Arizona would almost certainly be in Tucson but the graphic from this video squishes the state making it look more like Wilcox (a small town with not much around). In other words, this map is not really precise.

There are, interestingly, some somewhat-clear variations with the RAN map and this charging station map. I'll have to dig in a little deeper and pull them out.

 

[xyskis]

Thanks and no, not 30-40% relative to trip in summer, 30-40% loss in range overall. I suspect it’s a combo of elevation gain and increased rolling resistance in snow with small-moderate contribution from temperature on the initial drive home.

 

[André]

The map shows 2 in Colorado. Denver, which is already being built, and the second looks like C. Springs.

And only 3 service centers in Canada... Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto. I guess in Montreal we should get the R1T sometime in 2025 !

 

[Trandall]

Love how they decided to use Ducktruck's perma-grin to lure investors.

 

[Pixelshot]

Some great parts to this video. Here are some of the things I noticed that stood out to me:

• The fleet of "test drive" vehicles will be also used as service support vehicles (I presume this means they would be the replacement loaners for a repair)
• I love that the example of the pro-active repair notice is the rear wiper - pretty benign
• A sale of a vehicle is only the beginning of relationship, which is more of a product-plus-fee-for-services model (e.g. "Apple") than a sell-it-and-forget-it (e.g. "Ford") model (they used this phrase: "high margin lifetime revenue"). Over time - revenue will come more and more from value-added services
• He mentions the experience centers (e.g. Venice Hub) but also mentions Team Rivian outposts which would be "a little further out" (cool!)
• Commercial fleets will eventually carry people
• Wants to build Rivian into one of the most recognizable brands in the world
• Plans to expand the energy solutions portfolio - build on the energy/charging capabilities in residential, industrial, and commercial markets
• 9000 employees currently
• I love that RJ spends 1 hr/week with the new hires
• I love the "anything is possible" vibe. RJ says he grew up with this mentality... "not caring how hard it was, and thinking more about how right it would be when we pull it off." (RJ)

love it

 

[Bumble1978]

Thanks and no, not 30-40% relative to trip in summer, 30-40% loss in range overall. I suspect it’s a combo of elevation gain and increased rolling resistance in snow with small-moderate contribution from temperature on the initial drive home.

To be clear you don't see a drastic loss when driving around PDX in Winter in general, only a slight loss maybe. It's only 30-40% down on the trips to Mt. hood due to conditions and elevation gain. If so, that makes total sense, and there's no way the R1S will have efficiency close to the Y. It would be closer to a Model X if anything.

I would love for Rivian to magically pull some efficiency rabbit out of their hat, but I seriously doubt it. ??

 

[Bumble1978]

Thanks and no, not 30-40% relative to trip in summer, 30-40% loss in range overall. I suspect it’s a combo of elevation gain and increased rolling resistance in snow with small-moderate contribution from temperature on the initial drive home.

To be clear you don't see a drastic loss when driving around PDX in Winter I'm general, only a slight loss maybe. It's only 30-40% down on the trips to Mt. hood due to conditions and elevation gain. If so, that makes total sense, and there's no way the R1S will have efficiency close to the Y. It would be closer to a Model X if anything.

I would love for Rivian to magically pull some efficiency rabbit out of their hat, but I seriously doubt it. ??

 

[xyskis]

To be clear you don't see a drastic loss when driving around PDX in Winter I'm general, only a slight loss maybe. It's only 30-40% down on the trips to Mt. hood due to conditions and elevation gain. If so, that makes total sense, and there's no way the R1S will have efficiency close to the Y. It would be closer to a Model X if anything.

I would love for Rivian to magically pull some efficiency rabbit out of their hat, but I seriously doubt it. ??

Correct. I feel like I’m at the average around town in the winter. Here’s data from Tesla Stats app for Y, shows about 10-12% reduction across the population of Y owners on the app during the winter.

 

[Bumble1978]

Correct. I feel like I’m at the average around town in the winter. Here’s data from Tesla Stats app for Y, shows about 10-12% reduction across the population of Y owners on the app during the winter.

Cool. That adds up.

What I, and hopefully others might find fascinating, and I chose totally generic addresses for this simulation in ABRP between what folks are supposedly getting in their Model Y's and compared it to what in theory the efficiency of the R1S should be

ABRP Estimates under the following conditions (same for each)

Starting with 100% Charge
Weather is 25 Deg w/5 mph Headwind
Road Conditions Heavy Rain/Snow

Going from a random neighborhood (ok Selwood where some acquaintances of ours live) to the Mt. Hood Ski Bowl and back...

The R1S Large Pack (135) arrives back safe in Portland with 55% left?!? The Model Y, only theoretically 5% more at 60% range left?!? Neither of which needing charges?!?

Something has to be off. ?

@xyskis how long do you charge in the Y going to Mt. Hood and back?

 

[JeremyMKE]

Minute 2:41 using my software to machine parts!! Boom!

 

[ruawahoo2]

The thing that I thought was most interesting and gnu, but I could be wrong, about this presentation was the comments made surrounding the purchases of land for environmental protection but that those lands would likely be opened to Rivian owners for exploration. That got me super excited thinking that there would be wonderful tracks and areas to explore that would be hit much less frequently than other places I would currently want to take my vehicle and family to that exist now.

 

[rraj2k81]

Actually, this is what scares me about the IPO. While RJ is not as "off the rails" as Elon, it's still a cult of personality. It's essentially the same as Steve Jobs era Apple.

I'm taking my investment in this IPO seriously and I actually want to hear more about their long-term revenue-generating concept which this presentation was a bit flat on. A lot of it hinged on "we have lots of sensors and some how *magically* we're going to see trends in this sensor data that will tell us what our next market should be." That gives me a bit of pause.

I _do_ like the FleetOS stuff. I think it can be a big game-changer, especially since it can be used on existing fleets.

Yeah, the more I think about it, I agree this whole FleetOS stuff could be a game changer from Rivian. Similar to Tesla's SC network.
Once they develop it and find a way to retrofit this technology into any vehicle, via 'their' sensors and 'network' the FleetOS OS could be something not just for Rivian fleet vehicles, but any one could buy into. Rental vehicles, delivery trucks, tow trucks, etc., the market is pretty huge, which maybe what they are referring to as 'our next market'.
One possibility is with Volvo's connected cars platform, who knows, connected Volvo trucks managed by FleetOS !

But my concern is that, are they biting more than they could chew, if they are trying to expand into markets they are still not scaled to handle. I mean they are already referring to us retail pre-order holders as 'third party'.
Which makes me wonder, what do they consider as their primary market segments ?

 

[Diddy123]

I mean they are already referring to us retail pre-order holders as 'third party'.
Which makes me wonder, what do they consider as their primary market segments ?

Employees

 

[Autolycus]

Looks to me like it would be Colorado Springs. The RAN map has two dots for the Denver area, with a bit of separation for the next dot. If you look at previous RAN map (below), the charging station is clearly in Springs.

The service station map has that same separation.

BUT, it's all speculation because the map is warped funny so I can't do a reliable overlay on the RAN graphic I've been working with.

Case in point: the service center in southern Arizona would almost certainly be in Tucson but the graphic from this video squishes the state making it look more like Wilcox (a small town with not much around). In other words, this map is not really precise.

There are, interestingly, some somewhat-clear variations with the RAN map and this charging station map. I'll have to dig in a little deeper and pull them out.

Hmm... if you find any good high-res updated maps, let me know, and I can go back through my process of geo-referencing and get any new planned sites (general areas only, obviously) added to my Google Map.

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