Just how far behind is RAN buildout?

[moosehead]

So this may be old news as I’m slow on the uptake, but wondering just how far behind the RAN buildout is early 2023?

While it is great to see new locations opening, it seems substantially behind compared to the original Rivian stated goal to build 3,500 charging stations at 600 U.S. and Canada locations by the end of 2023. As of now, the Rivian website shows 15 fast charging sites open.

Rivian evidently removed the above stated previous goal sometime around July 2022. I have also perused the RAN tracker and other threads until my eyes start to bleed/ADHD kicks in. It is beyond my capability to convert these sources into a summary pipeline report showing open, under construction, planned and proposed RAN sites.

Notwithstanding that reality, how many of the above locations for fast chargers do you think RAN will open by year-end 2023? YE 2024? YE 2025? Same for Rivian Waypoint/L2?

Sponsored

 

[zefram47]

I'd venture a lot of the holdup is actually going to be difficulty in finding site hosts as well as the local utilities dragging their feet and/or not offering a good deal. Hard to complain too much here in Colorado with two operational sites (Montrose and Salida) and at least two more under construction (Grand Junction and Broomfield).

 

[EVTrukHog]

I don’t know if/how this is affecting Rivian but electrical primary transformers and switchgear is in extremely short supply. Lead time on delivery is in the 60-100 week range. This can’t be good for trying to rapidly build out a charging network.

 

[DTown3011]

I'd venture a lot of the holdup is actually going to be difficulty in finding site hosts as well as the local utilities dragging their feet and/or not offering a good deal. Hard to complain too much here in Colorado with two operational sites (Montrose and Salida) and at least two more under construction (Grand Junction and Broomfield).

We need more in Colorado, and not here in Denver. The Broomfield one will be nice, but I'll never use it since it's so close to home. Having options in/around Silverthorne, Steamboat, and anything off 285 towards Crested Butte would be really nice. Steamboat in particular seems to be a charging hole.

 

[R1Sky Business]

So this may be old news as I’m slow on the uptake, but wondering just how far behind the RAN buildout is early 2023?

While it is great to see new locations opening, it seems substantially behind compared to the original Rivian stated goal to build 3,500 charging stations at 600 U.S. and Canada locations by the end of 2023. As of now, the Rivian website shows 15 fast charging sites open.

Rivian evidently removed the above stated previous goal sometime around July 2022. I have also perused the RAN tracker and other threads until my eyes start to bleed/ADHD kicks in. It is beyond my capability to convert these sources into a summary pipeline report showing open, under construction, planned and proposed RAN sites.

Notwithstanding that reality, how many of the above locations for fast chargers do you think RAN will open by year-end 2023? YE 2024? YE 2025? Same for Rivian Waypoint/L2?

Red tape & bureaucracy moves slowwwly

 

[lmr]

Red tape & bureaucracy moves slowwwly

Very much this. Lots of cities and counties have archaic approval systems with plenty of bottlenecks along the way. Just the Service Center in Portland, OR for example took a year to get permits approved for remodel of an existing building, and if all goes well they will finally get it opened up in Q3 of this year, nearly two years after they started the process.

As far as the RAN network goes, by my count there are 15 RAN locations already open in 4 states, with another 41 RAN locations in 18 states currently in some level of Planning and/or Permitting, and another 28 RAN sites currently under construction in 15 states. So the network is well under way, and with any luck we will have at least 84 RAN locations in 25 states with ~500 DCFCs online by the end of this year.

 

[Guy]

They are well behind and made these plans back in 2021 so they should have had site selection for many of them back then. They will be lucky to get to 100 by the end of the year (I saw 84 as an estimate above and that seems reasonable now), so they are going to be wel behind. Even if they open 100 a year going forward (two a week and double their current rate) it will take them five more years, so through to 2027.
I understand the potential for equipment delays but would have hoped they had planned for this back in 2021 before they made the commitment of 600 sites by end of 2023. They knew they needed 3600 charging units and should have made sure they had the supply chain to do this over a 2.5 year period.

Planning does seem to catch them out at times like with hubs and service centers.

 

[COdogman]

We need more in Colorado, and not here in Denver. The Broomfield one will be nice, but I'll never use it since it's so close to home. Having options in/around Silverthorne, Steamboat, and anything off 285 towards Crested Butte would be really nice. Steamboat in particular seems to be a charging hole.

Agree it’s probably more useful to have charging improved in more remote places, but after you posted pics of that Broomfield location the other day it made me consider moving near there when my lease is up in a few months. Since most apartment complexes have none or 1 level 2 charger, having that RAN location nearby would be as good as having a gas station up the street.

 

[Riviot]

Red tape & bureaucracy moves slowwwly

We ran out of red, it's now crimson tape.

 

[moosehead]

Agree with @Guy, a proper real estate function would have built a pipeline of identified sites and included planning & zoning/permitting in the critical path. No doubt equipment supply is an issue but land planning is a known process. Irony is that California is one of the most difficult development jurisdictions in the country but existing RAN’s are concentrated there early.

As comparison, Tesla had their first 600 supercharger locations built in 3 years. Many Tesla sites are larger with more chargers per location, and most if not all are Interstate corridor focused. Yes, different time and different company but it is the only comp.

 

[andisimose]

Based on all the reports of permits pulled and other "this looks like a RAN being built" posts. I think they have a lot more locations selected already with preliminary work started than they have listed on the map on rivian.com. One example is someone posted a permit for RAN in Daytona, but its not on Rivians map for 2023.

Im being hopeful that this is a sign they are either underpromising or planning a lot more ground work, but confident they wont have the cabinets to build all these sites right away so they are not listed on the 2023 build out.

 

[emoore]

Agree it’s probably more useful to have charging improved in more remote places, but after you posted pics of that Broomfield location the other day it made me consider moving near there when my lease is up in a few months. Since most apartment complexes have none or 1 level 2 charger, having that RAN location nearby would be as good as having a gas station up the street.

Agree. Would be nice to start getting some in the northern midwest and western states. Once you get off the main highway there are usually only 50kw stations or a few supercharger stations. Nothing from EA or EVGo.

 

[Guy]

Agree with @Guy, a proper real estate function would have built a pipeline of identified sites and included planning & zoning/permitting in the critical path. No doubt equipment supply is an issue but land planning is a known process. Irony is that California is one of the most difficult development jurisdictions in the country but existing RAN’s are concentrated there early.

As comparison, Tesla had their first 600 supercharger locations built in 3 years. Many Tesla sites are larger with more chargers per location, and most if not all are Interstate corridor focused. Yes, different time and different company but it is the only comp.

Tesla is a reasonable comparison and I would have thought it should have taken Tesla longer because they were breaking new ground. Rivian are following on from EA, Tesla, EVGo, Chargepoint etc so the process is much more well known (and the pitfalls) so should be more efficient not less.

 

[Marchin_MTB]

Agree it’s probably more useful to have charging improved in more remote places, but after you posted pics of that Broomfield location the other day it made me consider moving near there when my lease is up in a few months. Since most apartment complexes have none or 1 level 2 charger, having that RAN location nearby would be as good as having a gas station up the street.

I do think that you see RAN pop up where infrastructure and permitting has been smoother rather than any kind of prioritization. Otherwise, the Broomfield location would be a little mystifying to me as it is not a charging desert. Meanwhile, steamboat, which is a gateway to a lot of northern CO fun, has only two 50kW stalls last I checked.

Also, we really need more L2 availability in apartment buildings.

 

[COdogman]

I do think that you see RAN pop up where infrastructure and permitting has been smoother rather than any kind of prioritization. Otherwise, the Broomfield location would be a little mystifying to me as it is not a charging desert. Meanwhile, steamboat, which is a gateway to a lot of northern CO fun, has only two 50kW stalls last I checked.

Also, we really need more L2 availability in apartment buildings.

Agreed. The only thing I can imagine they were thinking with that mall parking lot location is that it is somewhat near multiple highways, where people might be heading to the mountains but even at that they could have done better. I'm sure it's a lot to do with what you said - just permitting and infrastructure.

My current apartment is basically brand new - I was the first person to occupy my unit 2 years ago, yet they only put 1 L2 charger near the clubhouse right where everyone parks to go in and out to check their mail. It does seem people try to leave it open but it's often got an ICE car parked there at least briefly. Another place nearby that is just opening actually has one L2 charger outside each building, which is the best I've seen to this point. Hopefully these developers start thinking ahead because it's not easy to retrofit all of that in a way that makes sense.

Sponsored