R1S demand slowing down?

[Rividiculous]

All demand is slowing down for Rivian, it's why they pushed leasing and it's also why they are advertising heavily now. I suspect it's also why they're unveiling the R2 so early, many suspected late this year or early next year. Rivian is burning cash and needs to get things moving quickly to survive long term.

Just wondering what the statement that “all demand is slowing down for Rivian” is based on.

A recent SEC filing? Customer survey data? A Wall Street Journal article? Leaked internal Rivian documents? Something RJ said?

Or idle speculation based on what’s in the R1 shop or how a nervous investor (or short seller) is feeling today?

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[fbkr]

Just wondering what the statement that “all demand is slowing down for Rivian” is based on.

A recent SEC filing? Customer survey data? A Wall Street Journal article? Leaked internal Rivian documents? Something RJ said?

Or idle speculation based on what’s in the R1 shop or how a nervous investor (or short seller) is feeling today?

Well, lowering prices on the base models would be one element.

When supply is low and demand is high, carmakers raise prices (see TSLA during COVID). When supply is high and demand is low, carmakers lower prices (see TSLA post-COVID).

 

[Rividiculous]

They’ve added a smaller battery option available at a lower price. But they haven’t lowered the price for a similarly equipped vehicle, have they?Just as with adding the R2, they are broadening their product offering. That doesn’t seem to indicate a demand drop.

We can speculate all day long. I could make a case either way but was wondering if you had noticed some new breadcrumbs from an interview or filing.

FWIW, I don’t even have any Rivian stock! (Because I’m not allowed to trade due to my job—otherwise I’d love to buy some.)

 

[fbkr]

They’ve added a smaller battery option available at a lower price. But they haven’t lowered the price for a similarly equipped vehicle, have they?Just as with adding the R2, they are broadening their product offering. That doesn’t seem to indicate a demand drop.

We can speculate all day long. I could make a case either way but was wondering if you had noticed some new breadcrumbs from an interview or filing.

FWIW, I don’t even have any Rivian stock! (Because I’m not allowed to trade due to my job—otherwise I’d love to buy some.)

Well, it's nuanced. You're right that Max pack/Large pack prices are the same, but Standard pack prices have been lowered for the same specs.

Rivian made an honest to God, "apples to apples" price cut on the entry model R1T. An R1T Dual Motor Standard Pack now costs $70k vs. $73k previously and nothing has changed about the car. Same goes for the R1S dual motor/standard pack, although it's less meaningful since they weren't really selling them before.

To me, inventory is the biggest indicator of demand and the ultimate "breadcrumb" to follow. Inventory build is what triggered the Tesla, Lucid, and Ford price cuts.

That's why I was surprised by the Rivian price cut. Inventory wasn't growing before that announcement, but it seems to be doing so now. So perhaps they did it preemptively based on what they were seeing in the order book.

 

[DaveA]

Toyota will get there - eventually. I would be first in line for an EV GX550 - they could bury me in it.

The GX 550 is the only vehicle I would go back to ICE for. Hopefully they create a plug in hybrid version.

 

[Rividiculous]

Well, it's nuanced. You're right that Max pack/Large pack prices are the same, but Standard pack prices have been lowered for the same specs.

Rivian made an honest to God, "apples to apples" price cut on the entry model R1T. An R1T Dual Motor Standard Pack now costs $70k vs. $73k previously and nothing has changed about the car. Same goes for the R1S dual motor/standard pack, although it's less meaningful since they weren't really selling them before.

To me, inventory is the biggest indicator of demand and the ultimate "breadcrumb" to follow. Inventory build is what triggered the Tesla, Lucid, and Ford price cuts.

That's why I was surprised by the Rivian price cut. Inventory wasn't growing before that announcement, but it seems to be doing so now. So perhaps they did it preemptively based on what they were seeing in the order book.

Isn’t the “Standard +” what was formerly known as the “Standard? Does that even things out or is it still less?

I am not sure, but thought that was the case.

 

[fbkr]

Isn’t the “Standard +” what was formerly known as the “Standard? Does that even things out or is it still less?

I am not sure, but thought that was the case.

Standard+ is entirely new.

Standard gives you the exact same range (270 miles) as it did before but at a lower price.

Standard+ gives you more range (315 miles) at the old Standard price.

So with Standard+, Rivian is effectively giving you more for your money. Thinking about it now, it feels similar to a price cut. It's like throwing in a free wall charger or paint job that you used to charge for (Tesla has done this).

 

[Rividiculous]

Standard+ is entirely new.

Standard gives you the exact same range (270 miles) as it did before but at a lower price.

Standard+ gives you more range (315 miles) at the old Standard price.

So with Standard+, Rivian is effectively giving you more for your money. Thinking about it now, it feels similar to a price cut. It's like throwing in a free wall charger or paint job that you used to charge for (Tesla has done this).

Thanks. I stand corrected on the battery comparison!

Indeed, one can look at it as a price cut. You can also view it as technological progress. I don’t think there’s a right answer. (Economists struggle with similar issues when looking at pricing over long periods. E.g., candles vs. LED lighting)

Regardless, I also don’t think it’s necessarily indicative of a demand drop. Porsche radically improved the Taycan’s range and performance but no one is saying they slashed prices because taycan demand is waning. (But you do get more for your money.)

I’ve seen shop inventories bounce all over the place over time. They are cranking out a lot more vehicles these days and supply has to be catching up to some degree, of course. That’s good ramping up. And they did shift a lot of production capacity from the T to the S, right?

I have no inside line on Rivian demand so I’ll stop babbling. For now, at least.

 

[Rob Stark]

Regardless, I also don’t think it’s necessarily indicative of a demand drop. Porsche radically improved the Taycan’s range and performance but no one is saying they slashed prices because taycan demand is waning. (But you do get more for your money.)

Porsche increased the base price of the Taycan in the US by $8845.

But will now have a base electric Macan starting at $80,450. Roughly the old starting price of the base Taycan.

Taycan global sales reached a new record in 2023 of 40,629 units, an increase of 17% YoY. And almost certainly beat Model S, if Tesla were to tell us the sales figures.

 

[fbkr]

Given all the recent news about weak demand, is anyone else surprised by the (more or less) complete lack of Standard/Standard+ pack R1S in the shop?

 

[Whatever_this_is]

Given all the recent news about weak demand, is anyone else surprised by the (more or less) complete lack of Standard/Standard+ pack R1S in the shop?

They just released these a couple weeks ago so there is still pent up demand for them at this price level. Also the 315 range at 78k helps a lot

 

[bdwalters]

There are just only so many people who can afford cars this expensive. That’s the problem. It’s not interest rates. It’s not global issues. It’s not the economy. The stock market is at all time highs. Wealthy people are sitting on highly appreciated houses, which feels good. The unemployment rate is < 4%. There is always a war going on somewhere. The problem is too few buyers in this particular market. We need the R2.

 

[ryunited]

Given all the recent news about weak demand, is anyone else surprised by the (more or less) complete lack of Standard/Standard+ pack R1S in the shop?

I finally found my build (or basically any DM+Anything less than Max pack) last week after several months on the R1 Shop.

IMHO, it's not so much a lack of demand but a mismatch of what they've had in supply vs. the builds people want.

My sense is there is still a significant queue of folks waiting for their config because they don't want/need QM or Max (or often your see both in the shop), and the sightings of less expensive builds are few and far between.

If I were Rivian I'd shift production prioritization against those types of builds and start cranking faster...

 

[Schmurt]

I think some of the issue is that people still have no idea that Rivian exists. Here in SW Michigan, there are maybe ~5 Rivian vehicles in my medium/large sized town(350k+), and I get questions all the time when I am out. "How do you say that?" "Who makes that?" "What kind of car is that?" And those are just the people who are actually asking. I am sure there are just as many who are thinking it and not asking. There just isn't the brand recognition yet outside of the hotspots like CA.

 

[iansriv]

If demand was decreasing why wouldn't Rivian step up marketing. When I'm out and about all I get asked is "what is that, who makes that?" It just tells me that brand awareness is not a big goal for Rivian. Could this be because they wanted to keep the demand down for the "halo" car? I've yet to see a series of ads. This is just my experience and conclusion. I may very well be wrong.

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